BitcoinLong
BTCUSD may be heading for $18k by 18 Dec
CME is launching BTC futures derivative on 18 Dec. On this news, BTC rebounded from the last minor crash. At this point, it is quite likely that we have another .618 extension, which means 18k --- this could be the most interesting coincidence this month.
As many have pointed out, nobody actually knows exactly who are going to be playing on that market, and what their initial plays will be. However, as this news is being peddled as an extremely bullish signal, we can be sure that small investors are helping to drive up the price of BTC. My personal opinion is that the higher BTC goes before 18 Dec, and the faster it does so, the more likely that BTC will be heavily shorted after 18 Dec. The reason is simple: all these new accounts from small investors have buy-in costs too high; these are the weak hands that will sell quickly. The high it goes, and the faster it does so, the less support there is for the price between 8k and 18k. Moreover, at that point, all the small investors will be euphoric. People like me that have been bearish will all have bought in. Then, it'll be great to short bitcoin. On the flip side of the argument, however, the more people caution that the market will crash the less likely it is for the market to crash.
I really don't want to say this, but one thing is more certain: the price of BTC is likely to go up. I think it should go down for its own sake, but for the craze to end we must all be euphoric, mustn't we?
However, it's not necessary to sell your alts and buy BTC to catch this ride. It appears that several other altcoins are jumping at an even higher rate than BTC. BCH is a great example. There's also rumor that CBOE will launch BCH futures. So it may grow even more than BTC in the next two weeks.
One thing I'll be looking at is this UO above 70. It seems to have some predicative value for this market.
As many have pointed out, nobody actually knows exactly who are going to be playing on that market, and what their initial plays will be. However, as this news is being peddled as an extremely bullish signal, we can be sure that small investors are helping to drive up the price of BTC. My personal opinion is that the higher BTC goes before 18 Dec, and the faster it does so, the more likely that BTC will be heavily shorted after 18 Dec. The reason is simple: all these new accounts from small investors have buy-in costs too high; these are the weak hands that will sell quickly. The high it goes, and the faster it does so, the less support there is for the price between 8k and 18k. Moreover, at that point, all the small investors will be euphoric. People like me that have been bearish will all have bought in. Then, it'll be great to short bitcoin. On the flip side of the argument, however, the more people caution that the market will crash the less likely it is for the market to crash.
I really don't want to say this, but one thing is more certain: the price of BTC is likely to go up. I think it should go down for its own sake, but for the craze to end we must all be euphoric, mustn't we?
However, it's not necessary to sell your alts and buy BTC to catch this ride. It appears that several other altcoins are jumping at an even higher rate than BTC. BCH is a great example. There's also rumor that CBOE will launch BCH futures. So it may grow even more than BTC in the next two weeks.
One thing I'll be looking at is this UO above 70. It seems to have some predicative value for this market.
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