Bitcoin Following 2013-2017 Fractal - UPDATE -still on target ?

As expected, PA has dropped below the Fractal pattern but given how overBought PA was, this is not surprising and I think I mentioned this last time I posted this chart, that we may drop below.

It does bring up the idea that we may have fallen off the pattern, as there is always a time when PA stops following Fractals..But we have to wait and see

We can see how in August 2023, PA fell below this fractal line..and indeed, to many extents, we were close to a bear entry there. as shown by some on chain data......But PA recovered

We can see how in 2023, PA Accelerated very quickly from this point on the Fractal.
Current PA is NOT in a position to do this.
Weekly MACD is Over Bought and is currently Falling Bearish, cooling off. At current rate of descent, is will be MAY when PA has enough strength on a Weekly chart to try and catch up with the Fractal once again.

You can see that rising Long Term line of support ( Dashed line )
We bounced off it Twice in this cycle...
Once when we began recovery in Jan 2023 and again, When we nearly entered that Bear when we fell under the Fractal in August 2023
A Vertical Drop by PA from current position takes us to 58K usdt on that line
I think I prefer to think we could see 65K off that line if we retrace enough in April.

But I have just posted about the expected MARCH candle Close and how we seem to be more likely to see a RED March and a Green April

So, are we still on track to follow Fractal ?
Impossible to say but if the Monthly candle close chart turns out to be accurate, then we could catch up and overtake the Fractal in Q3
We need to watch this closely...

p.s. A Red Mach candle Close need not be a big drop from current price, a decrease of only 0.01 usdt would create a RED candle....