Bitcoin btc bullmarket prediction based on halving

I measured the days of bull and bear rally between each halving, and highlighted each buy signal appeared on hash ribbon.
You can see we never seen the price again after each hash ribbon buy signal.

The 3rd halving date is the mean of 1323 and 1400.

Bull market days between 1st and 2nd halving is 371D and 2nd to 3rd is 518D, a 39% increase in days. Both bull market tops happens to be mid December.
If we get a 39% increase in days: 720D, thats May 02, 22.
Or till mid December, appox.590D that is still a increase from previous bull market.

A decrease of percentage of gains in price by 7640%-3039%/ -60.2%

If we also get a 60% decrease in percentage of gains compare to last bull rally, thats 1215%

If bull market ends at end of the year and we get a 1221% in gains calculating from 3rd halving, thats around 120,000.

Which is possible

If 65k was the top, that is only a 300+ days in bull rally and 600%+gains. kinda short for all the institution money in my opinion. But we did touch the 50ma on the weekly chart, which could a signal for end of a bull market according to the previous data. We'll see what ever the fuck that will happen

Komentarz:

Bottom of the bear market measured from ath is around 80%, 65K 80% drop is below the previous ath, therefore, its unlikely