Long-term scenarios for Bitcoin

17 mar 2018

Hi friends! Thanks for taking the time to read my analysis, I hope you find this useful to help guide you in your long-term strategy for Bitcoin! Let’s get to it!
On the chart you see 2 bold black trend lines that represent support and resistance for this descending broadening wedge pattern that has started Dec. 17th and continues through today.
While this pattern is typically bullish on the long-term, we need to realize that a dump back down to touch the lower support line is still possible.

Additionally, there are two pink support trend lines that I drew starting from Sept. 15th onwards.
- The thinner magenta line is drawn from the bottom of the candle bodies, while the thicker magenta line is drawn from the bottom of the wicks.
- The thick pink support line is an extremely important trend line for the future of direction of bitcoin’s price.

Finally, there is the Log support line in thick red at the bottom. This trend line is formed from the low point in 2011 and touches many reaction lows throughout the history of bitcoin through present day.
This is theoretically the absolute low for bitcoin, and anything push below this line could spell disaster for bitcoin.

Speaking of important areas to watch, I have shaded 3 zones to be aware of:
1.) The green area is the Bullish Zone for bitcoin. If bitcoin can get into this zone and stay above the thick magenta support line, the correction is over and a long-term bull trend has begun.
2.) The red area is the Danger Zone. I do not want to call this a bearish zone for the long term as there is a possibility of a flash dump to 6k and pump back up above the magenta support line. However, merely being in this zone is risky and we must proceed with caution.
3.) The black zone below the red support line is the Death Zone. If bitcoin breaks below this line, it could take many months if not years for the price to recover. As long as bitcoin stays above this trend line, we will see higher prices in the future.

I have applied a Fibonacci retracement with the advance start at $0 and the advance end at the top of the candle body around $19,050. I am using the candle body as this seems to provide more reliable Fibonacci retracement levels than the wick.
As you can see, the Feb. 6th drop produced a candle in which the bottom of the candle body just barely pierced below the .618 fib level before bouncing back up.

I have drawn out 2 long-term scenarios for Bitcoin, but first let’s discuss the most likely path for bitcoin over the next few days represented by the thin black lines:
The black line leading down from 11.7k to the .618 fib level is where I expect to see bitcoin drop to over the next couple of days. The .618 golden ratio also happens to intersect the thick magenta support trend line that has been providing support since Sept. 15th 2017. The thin arrows below 7.2k indicate the possibility for a flash dump to 6k and bounce back up, like we saw back on Feb. 6th. If this happens, we could see a double bottom formation taking shape.

Scenario #1: The green trend lines show the path Bitcoin could take if it bounces off the thick magenta support line. Even with a flash dump to 6k and bounce back up, BTC could still at least attempt to move back up to try to break the upper resistance line. A break through this line would be very bullish for bitcoin.
Scenario #2: The red trend lines show the alternative path if Bitcoin is unable to break above the .618 fib level or break above the thick magenta support line. This scenario is very bearish for bitcoin, however we do still have one more fib level that could provide support at 78.6% retracement before our last support on the red trend line.

So that just about covers everything, if you found this analysis useful please like my idea and follow me!
Thank you =)

17 mar 2018

Uwaga

From a fundamental standpoint, I want to also note that this correction from 19.7k down is very similar to the correction in early-mid 2013. The percent increase from the base support up to the ATH’s, are both just around 1,900%, and additionally both bull runs started from the base (red log support line), where as the second peak in 2014 started from a much higher point and that advance was only around 850%.

The amount of time it took for Bitcoin to reach the ATH in 2013 starting from the last touch of the red support line, was around 275 days and this is the exact amount of time it has taken bitcoin to reach 19.7k ATH starting from the last touch of the red support line.

Lastly, the correction in 2013 lasted approximately ~93 days, before the next bull run started. If we want to draw similarities between the two corrections, theoretically this current correction should end around March 20th.

Now these are obviously just predictions, educated guesses based on historical price patterns and should not be taken too seriously. Anything can happen, I’m simply sharing my ideas with you guys as this is my perspective on this correction and would love to hear input from anyone else on this!

19 mar 2018

Uwaga

It's very hard to see on this chart being so zoomed out, but yesterday we touched just a hair above the .618 fib level, right where the thick magenta line intersects. It bounced off this intersection almost too perfect. There was no flash to 6k but that's okay, as long as we stay out of that red area underneath, we are safe.

With that said, we still have to cross the upper magenta resistance line, the 50% fib retracement, and finally the black resistance trend line above before we can finally put an end to this 3-month long correction.

Stay tuned!

27 mar 2018

Uwaga

After coming up to test the thin magenta resistance line, bitcoin was rejected once again. We are now approaching the thick magenta support line below which has held us afloat at 6k, and recently at 7.3k. I'm fairly confident it will hold once more at around 7.5-7.6k.
The perfect bat harmonic pattern that is playing out here is also targeting this range as the PRZ (potential reversal zone).
Check out that idea here:

30 mar 2018

Uwaga

As you can see on the chart, price action has fallen below the strong support line (thick purple line) that has held up since September 2017. This also brings the price below the .618 fibonacci retracement. Since we are back in the red area, we need to be very careful about going long here as falling further down is much more likely now. The next support is at 6k which has been strong level for a price rebound, and if that happens the doors are open for a double bottom reversal.We still need to be careful as long as we are in the red area, and stop losses should be mandatory if you open a long position. Falling below 6k will most likely lead to BTC following the pathway shown in red arrows.

12 kwi 2018

Uwaga

Bitcoin had a real nice pump today with a lot of volume. But before we get too excited, let's look over the long-term picture once again. Press the play button on the chart above and you'll see the price spiked up and perfectly touched the bottom of the lower support line (thicker magenta line) around 8.1k. The price has slightly retraced since that point so if it falls any more, 7.2k is is our strong support where the .618 fib level is found.

Looking at the upside target, we still need to break out of the black resistance line that forms the downtrend channel since Dec. 17th. It's looking more likely to happen, but let's just remember that resistance line can also be a nice spot for reversal (of any size). I have a feeling when we break out of this trend line on the linear scale which is just above 8k, a lot of people will FOMO and proclaim bitcoin is officially out of bear market. On log scale, that line will still be a little ways out, at around 8.4-8.5k (obviously price might be different depending on when price reaches the line).

Don't forget this happened once before! Remember when we hit 11.7k for the second time to form the double top reversal? Well that run broke out of the final resistance line formed from ATH on the linear scale, and everyone said we are out of the bear market! If you drew from ATH down the reaction highs on the log scale however, you would have seen the price bounce and reverse perfectly on that resistance line. The same situation can happen here, so just be aware of that folks!

17 kwi 2018

Uwaga

Another update. Click play on the chart above. What you'll see is after that big pump recently, the price got stalled out right at the thick magenta support line (now resistance). There's still a chance it rallies back up and breaks through, but the fact that we see a red candle on the daily after several wicks attempted to break through this trend line is something that we should definitely be concerned about. On this larger scale, the first support below is the .618 fib level and the second support at 6k to form a double bottom. If you want more support levels for short-mid term, check out my latest idea.

Remember what I've been saying all along, this red zone we are in is a dangerous zone. What I mean by that is this is not a good place to buy if you have the buy and hodl strategy. I colored this entire region red for a reason! If we don't break out of here and get into the green area or at the very least break out of the black resistance trend line formed from the ATH downwards then we should expect more downside for Bitcoin.
If we do continue to fall, obviously there will be a point in which a true bottom is found and it would be foolish not to buy at such cheap prices. But that bottom is going to be 6k or below in my opinion (if we keep falling). This is not the time to buy. I will continue to update this idea as we move along.

20 kwi 2018

Uwaga

Take a look at the chart after hitting play button. Price is now wedged right below the major support (now resistance) line from September low to 6k low, and just below the major resistance line from the ATH (19.7k) down.
What a spot to be in! If we breakout from here, this will take care of both resistance trend lines and not only put an end to the bear market but also thrust us right back into the bull market. Let's see how this plays out over the next few days!

24 kwi 2018

Uwaga

We made it guys! Just like I originally predicted, this year's correction more closely resembled the 2013 correction rather than the one in 2014 and we are on our way back up! The price was not only able to get out of the red dangerous zone, but it even cracked the Sept. support line and the price is now back in the green safe zone. Even if we get a drop soon, as long as the price stays above the black trend line (now support) from the ATH down, we will continue this new bull run. As of now the price looks to be on track with my projected green arrows. I'll update if anything changes. For now, I hope you have all already went long since we entered the green zone, as was my plan all along. Happy trading friends! =)