BTC to see crash to 8300$ before a rise to 9400$
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Crypto-AST BTC/USD Weekly Breakdown - 27/01/2020
Daily chart
- On our last major breakdown of BTC/USD, we noted that we should expect bullish price action on BTC to the 9200$ zone and after brief consolidation at this price, we would go on to the 9400$ price level. We also noted that in terms of the bigger picture, we expected BTC to finally ascend to the 10218$ resistance level at the downtrend line. None the less, we witnessed the bears take back charge in the market at 9200$ and slam dunk price to the 8250$ level to meet EMA 200 support on the daily chart and we have since remained pretty inactive in the market till we got a good idea of what was going up. This weekly BTC breakdown will attempt to decipher the unusual price action we are seeing in the market and try to make a clear sense of things for the week ahead for us to trade off of.
- First thing to note is that the ascending fan support (shown by the blue line on our chart) was broken to the downside in order for price to see the 8250$ support level but we are currently trading just above the supporting trend line. We are also just below the resistance of the descending channel formed since highs of 12093$. In order to break through the descending channel resistance, we would need to see a break above the 8800$ price level and this would be a good indication of price returning to the 9000$ region before continuing its journey to both 9200$ and 9400$ respectively in accordance with our previous thoughts about price action in our last weekly breakdown of BTC. Even though we are generally bullish to the 9400$ level and thereafter to the 10,200$ level, it is important to note that from current price at 8649$, we may see price taking a double dip to the 8300$ price level before we actually continue to see a retest of the levels mentioned above and for as long as we remain below the 8800$ resistance level.
- We should be ready to short the market to the 8330$ price level in the case that we break below 8570$ and we should be ready to long BTC to 9000$ and 9200$ respectively in the instance that we break above the 8,800$ level. Bare in mind, that these are farsighted insights and we will be updating you frequently on both situations.
- On the daily chart, we can see that there is a bearish divergence between the RSI/ROC momentum indicator and the price chart + RSI stand alone indicator. This is again evidence for us to expect some bearish price action to the 8330$ level and price may go as low as the 8250$ price level in reality.
4 hourly chart
- Once we zoom into our microscope by switching to the 4 hourly chart, we realise a lot of confirmations of our initial thoughts from above. Firstly, all across from the price chart to the momentum indicators, we are at resistance levels on the 4 hourly indicating that bearish price action is imminent. But as stated above, we should be careful to short the market unless we see at least a hourly candle closing below the 8570$ level as anything above that is indicative of us still being in the ascending fan support. However, before any bearish price action begins, we may test highs of 8700$ and anything below 8750-8800$ is still within the descending channel structure and its just there to stop hunt early shorters in the market. Moreover, EMA 200 support is currently at 8200$ on the 4 hourly and this is a more unconservative take profit for those that are a little braver and are willing to move their stops into profit and let the trade run to this level.
1 hourly chart
- Switching to the hourly chart, we can firstly spot that we are at the top of our scalpers channel with MA’s being used as consistent support. We can also spot that even our momentum indicators are in overbought regions and this is indicative of bearish price action about to occur. Switching to more specialist chart settings, we can see that on the hourly, we are again seeing that bearish divergence taking place on the momentum indicators and giving us more confirmation of our initial thought that we will see bearish price action before seeing the bullish phase of our analysis set in. Lastly, its important to note that EMA support on the hourly is at 8500$ and thus once we short after a close below 8570$, we would need to move our stops to entry as soon as we hit the 8500$ mark.
Summary
- We should expect bearish price action to the 8330$ mark after a close below the 8570$ price level at least on the hourly charts. After price reaches 8500$, we should ensure to move our stops to entry. The opportunity to raise take profit to 8260$ is there as long as we continue to move our stops into profit even further OR we can at least close 50% of our position at 8330$ and let the rest run risk free with stops wide to 8570$.
- If we break above the 8800$ and close above this price on at least the hourly, we should be ready to long to 9000$ and 9200$ respectively.
- For the longer term, we still see price rising to the 9400$ and 10,200$ price levels in the few weeks ahead.
CHECK OUT OUR TELEGRAM CHANNEL DOWN BELOW FOR TIMELY UPDATES AND EXACT ENTRIES!
Daily chart
- On our last major breakdown of BTC/USD, we noted that we should expect bullish price action on BTC to the 9200$ zone and after brief consolidation at this price, we would go on to the 9400$ price level. We also noted that in terms of the bigger picture, we expected BTC to finally ascend to the 10218$ resistance level at the downtrend line. None the less, we witnessed the bears take back charge in the market at 9200$ and slam dunk price to the 8250$ level to meet EMA 200 support on the daily chart and we have since remained pretty inactive in the market till we got a good idea of what was going up. This weekly BTC breakdown will attempt to decipher the unusual price action we are seeing in the market and try to make a clear sense of things for the week ahead for us to trade off of.
- First thing to note is that the ascending fan support (shown by the blue line on our chart) was broken to the downside in order for price to see the 8250$ support level but we are currently trading just above the supporting trend line. We are also just below the resistance of the descending channel formed since highs of 12093$. In order to break through the descending channel resistance, we would need to see a break above the 8800$ price level and this would be a good indication of price returning to the 9000$ region before continuing its journey to both 9200$ and 9400$ respectively in accordance with our previous thoughts about price action in our last weekly breakdown of BTC. Even though we are generally bullish to the 9400$ level and thereafter to the 10,200$ level, it is important to note that from current price at 8649$, we may see price taking a double dip to the 8300$ price level before we actually continue to see a retest of the levels mentioned above and for as long as we remain below the 8800$ resistance level.
- We should be ready to short the market to the 8330$ price level in the case that we break below 8570$ and we should be ready to long BTC to 9000$ and 9200$ respectively in the instance that we break above the 8,800$ level. Bare in mind, that these are farsighted insights and we will be updating you frequently on both situations.
- On the daily chart, we can see that there is a bearish divergence between the RSI/ROC momentum indicator and the price chart + RSI stand alone indicator. This is again evidence for us to expect some bearish price action to the 8330$ level and price may go as low as the 8250$ price level in reality.
4 hourly chart
- Once we zoom into our microscope by switching to the 4 hourly chart, we realise a lot of confirmations of our initial thoughts from above. Firstly, all across from the price chart to the momentum indicators, we are at resistance levels on the 4 hourly indicating that bearish price action is imminent. But as stated above, we should be careful to short the market unless we see at least a hourly candle closing below the 8570$ level as anything above that is indicative of us still being in the ascending fan support. However, before any bearish price action begins, we may test highs of 8700$ and anything below 8750-8800$ is still within the descending channel structure and its just there to stop hunt early shorters in the market. Moreover, EMA 200 support is currently at 8200$ on the 4 hourly and this is a more unconservative take profit for those that are a little braver and are willing to move their stops into profit and let the trade run to this level.
1 hourly chart
- Switching to the hourly chart, we can firstly spot that we are at the top of our scalpers channel with MA’s being used as consistent support. We can also spot that even our momentum indicators are in overbought regions and this is indicative of bearish price action about to occur. Switching to more specialist chart settings, we can see that on the hourly, we are again seeing that bearish divergence taking place on the momentum indicators and giving us more confirmation of our initial thought that we will see bearish price action before seeing the bullish phase of our analysis set in. Lastly, its important to note that EMA support on the hourly is at 8500$ and thus once we short after a close below 8570$, we would need to move our stops to entry as soon as we hit the 8500$ mark.
Summary
- We should expect bearish price action to the 8330$ mark after a close below the 8570$ price level at least on the hourly charts. After price reaches 8500$, we should ensure to move our stops to entry. The opportunity to raise take profit to 8260$ is there as long as we continue to move our stops into profit even further OR we can at least close 50% of our position at 8330$ and let the rest run risk free with stops wide to 8570$.
- If we break above the 8800$ and close above this price on at least the hourly, we should be ready to long to 9000$ and 9200$ respectively.
- For the longer term, we still see price rising to the 9400$ and 10,200$ price levels in the few weeks ahead.
CHECK OUT OUR TELEGRAM CHANNEL DOWN BELOW FOR TIMELY UPDATES AND EXACT ENTRIES!
Uwaga
BTC USD UPDATE We will not be doing a comprehensive breakdown of BTC USD price action but rather a condensed update to keep us up to speed. This is mainly because last weeks breakdown is still in play and is going as planned. With that being said, lets begin!
- We stated on last weeks breakdown of BTC that a break above 8,800$ will give us indications to go long to 9200$ and 9400$. We had given two exact entries over last week to 9400$ from 8935$ and then another entry to 9500$ from 9379$. Both trades had gone to absolute perfection. We have limit orders for longs from 9700$ with take profits conservatively at 10,000$ and a little more riskier at 10,200$. We had forecasted bullish price action to 10,200$ on January the 14$ with target intervals at 9200$,9400$ and 10,200$ respectively. All of sudden everyone had jumped on the bandwagon to predict these prices but what you can always expect of the CryptoAST channel is that we will always be the first to predict price action in any given direction.
- Now, lets see what we can expect from the market for the days ahead. Firstly, its important to note that we have broken out of the descending channel at exactly 8,800$, and now we are in an ascending channel from 6556$ on our way to the main descending trend line which should knock price down from the 10,000-10,200$ region. We have tested the top of the channel for now at 9600$, and we expect to see some bearish activity to the 9090$ level in order to meet MA supports, and the supporting trend line of the ascending channel as we have seen some price consolidation for nearly 6 days now. We are also seeing bearish divergences on the daily chart for BTC again strengthening our initial thoughts. On top of this we can see that our momentum indicators are falling off from main resistance levels. On the hourly EMA, we can observe that EMA support is at 9200$ and this is the price level which the bulls have managed to gain back charge time and time again over the last trading week.
- We still do see bullish activity to the 10,000$ level and the 10,200$ level but before this occurs we may see some bearish price action to the levels stated above first. The key levels to watch out for are a break to the downside at 9350$ in which case we will short to 9200$ and 9090$ respectively (close 50% of short position at each level). The other key level to keep an eye on is a break above 9650$ in which case we will open longs to 10,000$ and 10,200$ - we already have limit order for long positions to these levels at 9700$ from days ahead.
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