Bitcoin Logrithmic Uptrend Retest w/ Bounce at .618 Fib
On the hourly analog Bitcoin chart, we are looking at a break at the $8,200 that we were targeting yesterday as a buy and even the stop loss level of $8,100. With that price has moved to new lows on the day and the week.
Price currently appears to be settling around the blue .786 fib retracement of $8,077 and is bouncing potentially a bit off of the top side of that pink down trending channel.
This is a huge level that needs to hold or else there will most likely be some new lows in store from this most recent downdraft since about May 5th.
Even as I write price is breaking through this level to $8,050. I would expect a bounce back up here to that $8,077.
The RSI is now in the oversold zone last 25.62 where is a high probably that price recover over the next few hours here. Even the MACD which, had completed the blue crossover the orange around noon today, with very little follow-through on the volume has caused price to tank. Thus the crossover has been undone and price continues lower.
Unfortunately if price falls back into the pink channel. I think price is going to quickly sink back down to the low of $7,925, but more likely to test the $7,800 level or $7,788, which may be the beginning of the last stand for this bullish move.
On the daily analog Bitcoin chart of Bitfinex, I am seeing some class A hidden continued bearish divergence that I have marked with that dark blue line on the RSI indicator that goes from May 13th to May 20th.
You can barely see it on the chart below, but that dark blue line is making a higher high and price is making a lower high over the same period and usually an indication of new lows to come.
There’s a few upward sloping trend lines here that should provide support for a falling price. I’ll discuss that light blue line in a minute, however that purple line which maps back to several rising lows from last year at about $7,730, should provide solid support as well as the dark green .618 fib line at $7,788.
Additionally there is also strong support at the $7,850 level at the lime green, which all together should provide a decent buy wall for the plummeting price.
If price does head down to such a level, it would be great to see the RSI reset to an oversold level. It was down to 37.73 on the most recent low from May 17th, but revisiting the RSI lows from April 1st, except at the $7,800 would be some great bullish divergence to look forward too.
Volume continues to drop precipitously over the past few months and appears to be as low as the volume from last July 20th, when price shot up to $2,800. It’s hard to believe that was a little less than a year ago and gives some nice perspective as to how far this market as has come.
This actually makes a beautiful new floor of BTC HODLers, for which price can continue to make its next phase of the bull market higher.
The light blue upward sloping line that I mentioned earlier is actually the logarithmic trend line that supported the price lows from back around tax day as well as several lows from January to July last year. I have posted that chart below and you can see for yourself how price is at that critical juncture again right now.
Even if price continues to break lower past $8,050, I do not think price will stay below it for long.
Price currently appears to be settling around the blue .786 fib retracement of $8,077 and is bouncing potentially a bit off of the top side of that pink down trending channel.
This is a huge level that needs to hold or else there will most likely be some new lows in store from this most recent downdraft since about May 5th.
Even as I write price is breaking through this level to $8,050. I would expect a bounce back up here to that $8,077.
The RSI is now in the oversold zone last 25.62 where is a high probably that price recover over the next few hours here. Even the MACD which, had completed the blue crossover the orange around noon today, with very little follow-through on the volume has caused price to tank. Thus the crossover has been undone and price continues lower.
Unfortunately if price falls back into the pink channel. I think price is going to quickly sink back down to the low of $7,925, but more likely to test the $7,800 level or $7,788, which may be the beginning of the last stand for this bullish move.
On the daily analog Bitcoin chart of Bitfinex, I am seeing some class A hidden continued bearish divergence that I have marked with that dark blue line on the RSI indicator that goes from May 13th to May 20th.
You can barely see it on the chart below, but that dark blue line is making a higher high and price is making a lower high over the same period and usually an indication of new lows to come.
There’s a few upward sloping trend lines here that should provide support for a falling price. I’ll discuss that light blue line in a minute, however that purple line which maps back to several rising lows from last year at about $7,730, should provide solid support as well as the dark green .618 fib line at $7,788.
Additionally there is also strong support at the $7,850 level at the lime green, which all together should provide a decent buy wall for the plummeting price.
If price does head down to such a level, it would be great to see the RSI reset to an oversold level. It was down to 37.73 on the most recent low from May 17th, but revisiting the RSI lows from April 1st, except at the $7,800 would be some great bullish divergence to look forward too.
Volume continues to drop precipitously over the past few months and appears to be as low as the volume from last July 20th, when price shot up to $2,800. It’s hard to believe that was a little less than a year ago and gives some nice perspective as to how far this market as has come.
This actually makes a beautiful new floor of BTC HODLers, for which price can continue to make its next phase of the bull market higher.
The light blue upward sloping line that I mentioned earlier is actually the logarithmic trend line that supported the price lows from back around tax day as well as several lows from January to July last year. I have posted that chart below and you can see for yourself how price is at that critical juncture again right now.
Even if price continues to break lower past $8,050, I do not think price will stay below it for long.
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