Don't be that panic seller, have a plan
The trend line from early december is clear, has been tested many times and never broke, bitcoin is still rising since then, getting as far as 42k.
Now this week we have entered a huge correction and the price fell to 30k, (-28%).
I have no reason to believe the uptrend is over, I will clearly reconsider if the trendline broke. In this case of course, we may enter a bear market. But that's speculation and trading on emotion against the market.
If you chose to open short and plan to take profit below the trendline, you may be right, but it's pure gambling.
That being said, we know 2 reasons which can explain this correction :
- miners selling their coin, inducing retail investor to panick (while long term holder aka biggest bitcoin wallet got more). You can find all the articles online.
- bitcoin going parabolic which triggers greed and anxiety, . Making huge movement on the market very likely to happen. Trading the beast since 2013, I've seen this happen quite a lot of times.
In this chart we can see that the bounce has no real reason to occur yet unless the 0.618 fib mesured from 42k to 30k is enough. You might consider long right now it if you don't care about getting a better price and you're OK with having a loose stop loss.
Personally I prefer to go long on a much better place where genesis fib 0.236 (from 2012 lowest to 42k), the trendline, and the 0.768 fib of this corrections meets. It's a large area between 33.5k and 32k. I might get several long if the price goes their and i'll be trading on smaller time frame to average the entry price.
My stop loss target is going to be tight at 31k (in case a panic happen, the exchange lag, or whatever happens in this crazy moments, it is ok to set up a stop lose a little lower, but for me if the price goes below it's over).
My take profit target will be :
50% at $37500 (fib 0.382)
25% at 40k (very strong resistance)
25% at 96k.
Now this week we have entered a huge correction and the price fell to 30k, (-28%).
I have no reason to believe the uptrend is over, I will clearly reconsider if the trendline broke. In this case of course, we may enter a bear market. But that's speculation and trading on emotion against the market.
If you chose to open short and plan to take profit below the trendline, you may be right, but it's pure gambling.
That being said, we know 2 reasons which can explain this correction :
- miners selling their coin, inducing retail investor to panick (while long term holder aka biggest bitcoin wallet got more). You can find all the articles online.
- bitcoin going parabolic which triggers greed and anxiety, . Making huge movement on the market very likely to happen. Trading the beast since 2013, I've seen this happen quite a lot of times.
In this chart we can see that the bounce has no real reason to occur yet unless the 0.618 fib mesured from 42k to 30k is enough. You might consider long right now it if you don't care about getting a better price and you're OK with having a loose stop loss.
Personally I prefer to go long on a much better place where genesis fib 0.236 (from 2012 lowest to 42k), the trendline, and the 0.768 fib of this corrections meets. It's a large area between 33.5k and 32k. I might get several long if the price goes their and i'll be trading on smaller time frame to average the entry price.
My stop loss target is going to be tight at 31k (in case a panic happen, the exchange lag, or whatever happens in this crazy moments, it is ok to set up a stop lose a little lower, but for me if the price goes below it's over).
My take profit target will be :
50% at $37500 (fib 0.382)
25% at 40k (very strong resistance)
25% at 96k.
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