BTC - The CME - Another leg UP? - & The Peanut Trader!
Zaktualizowano
Once we past $6250 and held, we mentioned we would likely turn bullish for $7000. What had me stumped was a correct Elliott Wave count that could explain this. Yes I seen the one that has us in a wave 5 but this just did not sit right with me as wave 4 extended into wave 1 which is one of the rules of EW' that just can not be broken. This bothered me and I thought maybe we are in an extended top like the Bio-tech bubble which we posted about a week ago. Boom $6250 Rekt that thesis. Of course all the news yesterday was CME' to allow derivatives trading of Bitcoin, but we knew eventually this was going to happen so I don't put much weight into it for price movement as it has been moving prior to this, and the move was a whopping 4%. What had me was that stupid Wave count! So last night I didn't even look at the chart just laid down, ate some chinese, turned on my favorite shows "fast money" & "mad money", and fell asleep with my dogs.
This morning I woke up to a PM' by SafeGamble with the simplest of charts showing a wedge and the release date of segwit2x. HELLO (and thank you by the way). So I sit down to look at the chart with all my junk on it and hit DELETE! Time to redo the chart as MarcPmarkets pointed out in his latest post. After going over many Fibb levels and having a mess of a chart on my hands I started cleaning it up and looking at my counts and having this feeling we were in a 5th wave I started again from Sept of 2015. Wow right under my nose! I was looking at the counts incorrectly, and it was the Fibbs that had me screwed up from wave 4 marked on the right chart. But then it made sense, wave 2 was a 0.382 retracement of wave 1 and wave 4 was a 0.5 retracement of wave 3. The other waves were not major waves but fractals. Now I want to be clear I'm not an EW' expert, but unless someone can point and go your wrong here, this is as valid as it gets, and explains why we continue higher. So the chart on the right is my new wave count.
But SafeGamble pointed out an interesting wedge shape that was forming and how it correlates with the Segwit2x release date. If you remember we mentioned that an RSI of 60 would have to be broken to get a descent retracement, well 60 held which was the reason we recommended NOT going short. This pattern and count make a lot of sense.
Now this does not mean go long here, or short. The overall market is still in correction other than BTC and BCH (funny how money is flowing into BCH after every BTC rally) and a few others. I agree with MarcP on this, if your trading it should be daytrades and not swing trades. Anything can happen and until we get a Bullish market overall I do not want to be throwing my peanuts to and elephant and risked getting crushed. It's just to risky right now.
Now I mentioned a $2000 trade recently. I was told "wow, all the charts and your trading with peanuts!" Kinda threw me back but then I realized most here are new to trading and do not understand money management. First of all I'm not sure $2000 is peanuts to anyone on TV'. We posted over a month ago if you have less than 5k you should not be trading. Well this is why. $2000 is 2% of a 100k portfolio and would be the appropriate amount to trade. This is why many lose money they think it's GO BIG OR GO HOME, and they end up going home broke often. It's about risk management. Your trades should NEVER be more than 2-5% of your portfolio, many traders I know use 1-2% period! Remember a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to get back to even. The goal is base hits not homeruns. But every now and again we get one like with BCH up 50%+. So that $2000 trade netted us $1000 or 1% profit on our portfolio OVERALL. So I'm happy to be a "Peanut Trader" and if you want to make money in the long term you should be too. People with big money did not get there risking it all, they got there by avoiding risks, cutting losses quickly, and most importantly when to be in CASH. CASH IS STILL KING RIGHT NOW!
This morning I woke up to a PM' by SafeGamble with the simplest of charts showing a wedge and the release date of segwit2x. HELLO (and thank you by the way). So I sit down to look at the chart with all my junk on it and hit DELETE! Time to redo the chart as MarcPmarkets pointed out in his latest post. After going over many Fibb levels and having a mess of a chart on my hands I started cleaning it up and looking at my counts and having this feeling we were in a 5th wave I started again from Sept of 2015. Wow right under my nose! I was looking at the counts incorrectly, and it was the Fibbs that had me screwed up from wave 4 marked on the right chart. But then it made sense, wave 2 was a 0.382 retracement of wave 1 and wave 4 was a 0.5 retracement of wave 3. The other waves were not major waves but fractals. Now I want to be clear I'm not an EW' expert, but unless someone can point and go your wrong here, this is as valid as it gets, and explains why we continue higher. So the chart on the right is my new wave count.
But SafeGamble pointed out an interesting wedge shape that was forming and how it correlates with the Segwit2x release date. If you remember we mentioned that an RSI of 60 would have to be broken to get a descent retracement, well 60 held which was the reason we recommended NOT going short. This pattern and count make a lot of sense.
Now this does not mean go long here, or short. The overall market is still in correction other than BTC and BCH (funny how money is flowing into BCH after every BTC rally) and a few others. I agree with MarcP on this, if your trading it should be daytrades and not swing trades. Anything can happen and until we get a Bullish market overall I do not want to be throwing my peanuts to and elephant and risked getting crushed. It's just to risky right now.
Now I mentioned a $2000 trade recently. I was told "wow, all the charts and your trading with peanuts!" Kinda threw me back but then I realized most here are new to trading and do not understand money management. First of all I'm not sure $2000 is peanuts to anyone on TV'. We posted over a month ago if you have less than 5k you should not be trading. Well this is why. $2000 is 2% of a 100k portfolio and would be the appropriate amount to trade. This is why many lose money they think it's GO BIG OR GO HOME, and they end up going home broke often. It's about risk management. Your trades should NEVER be more than 2-5% of your portfolio, many traders I know use 1-2% period! Remember a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to get back to even. The goal is base hits not homeruns. But every now and again we get one like with BCH up 50%+. So that $2000 trade netted us $1000 or 1% profit on our portfolio OVERALL. So I'm happy to be a "Peanut Trader" and if you want to make money in the long term you should be too. People with big money did not get there risking it all, they got there by avoiding risks, cutting losses quickly, and most importantly when to be in CASH. CASH IS STILL KING RIGHT NOW!
Uwaga
Keep in mind anything can happen with the Segwit2x fork. If something bad happens you could see a rush to the exit. Of course we have another fork in silver and I guess another one after that. So it's best to just stay long, long term and wait to see how things unfold, I do NOT like buying at the top of markets, but may on any pullback to the D area for E.Uwaga
Of course now that I post this it will probably retrace like we thought and we will go back to the extended top ;)Uwaga
We could be stalling, so I broke down the fractal count for anyone interested. could see a pullback but as we know BTC has been pretty resilient and could surge higher.Uwaga
An update into the fractal count. $7000-$7100 final target price.Uwaga
sorry $7100-$7500Uwaga
Long term wave count.Uwaga
All signals are still bullish, until we get some indicators turning negative we can still move higher. 
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