Bitcoin has started it's small relief rally towards 7800
Zaktualizowano
The target of 6900/7000 did not get reached, because it was getting bought at the lows yesterday. In my last update i posted i said that it was clear that bearish momentum was dropping. A few hours before that i showed a bullish wedge that could possibly show a reversal as well, but the price dropped below it, which happens very often but than it should go up quite fast again. That was the whole confusing thing yesterday, it stayed there for so long that i could not give that bullish wedge allot of value anymore. Just to be sure i had lowered my stop to 7320 from my 7550 short position. I just got hit an hour ago, and from the looks of it, we will probably go towards the 8000 again the next few day.
In the chart we can see that bitcoin has found support around the support level of that big (blue) triangle. At the moment it is trying to get back into that paralel channel again, something it has tried for several days but each attempt failed which showed how the weak the market was. The past month or 2 we have seen our allot of fake squeezes up and down, whales are doing that to confuse both sides. But i would be very surprised if this rally does not see any follow through. As long as it stays above the 7350 it's almost 90% sure it will happen. A drop to 7250ish should really be the max for a drop, but i don't think we will get that low anymore.
Looking at the red line, you can see what i still expect for the coming weeks. I still think this rally will be a temp move and that we eventually start to drop again. I give it 20% chance that we have seen a med term low here exactly on the blue support line of the triangle. It's never that easy in my experience. So i am quite sure that we will drop again, but from which price is the difficult part. As long as we stay below the 8000 i wont change my mind, if it gets above that level than i might. I still don't have a real pattern to give a target for this rally, but i think we should reach the 7700/7800, these levels should form a resistance. So for now my plan will probably be to build up a short position around those levels. But i won't start to build it up when we get there, i will wait patiently until i see some signs of weakness first.
Now something else, i have been working far to much lately and just not getting any rest because of that. I am doing everything myself, answering all the messages and the few people i work with. Until now everything is still for free what i provide here on TV so i don't have the luxury to get some help or support. I am a bit disappointed in myself that i did not spot this small reversal, this is usually what i am good at. Now thinking back on what i saw yesterday the signals were there and similar to others i did spot. Maybe i just missed it, maybe i had it wrong. But what i do know, i have been working none stop lately with average 4/5 hours of sleep. It's clear i need a break, want to say for a week but i know i can't do that. I will start with at least today, it's been 30+ degrees here the past few days and i have been sitting inside all the time.
But next to all of this, taking a break, from at least a certain asset is key to be successful. It's impossible to predict each small wave during the day and when you concentrate to much on 1 asset (i see crypto as 1 asset since they all follow BTC) eventually you loose sight of the bigger picture and objectivity at certain moments. Normally an experienced trader looks at all the markets for opportunities, to search for perfect setups. If it's Gold or Oil, FX or the stock market, their are always great opportunities to catch. But i know most people here don't find that interesting so the focus is completely on Bitcoin. The message of this is, sometimes you can make easy perfect trades a few days in a row on a certain asset, but sometimes you should not even touch it for a while. For example, when Bitcoin was going sideways between the 8000/8800.......................
In the chart we can see that bitcoin has found support around the support level of that big (blue) triangle. At the moment it is trying to get back into that paralel channel again, something it has tried for several days but each attempt failed which showed how the weak the market was. The past month or 2 we have seen our allot of fake squeezes up and down, whales are doing that to confuse both sides. But i would be very surprised if this rally does not see any follow through. As long as it stays above the 7350 it's almost 90% sure it will happen. A drop to 7250ish should really be the max for a drop, but i don't think we will get that low anymore.
Looking at the red line, you can see what i still expect for the coming weeks. I still think this rally will be a temp move and that we eventually start to drop again. I give it 20% chance that we have seen a med term low here exactly on the blue support line of the triangle. It's never that easy in my experience. So i am quite sure that we will drop again, but from which price is the difficult part. As long as we stay below the 8000 i wont change my mind, if it gets above that level than i might. I still don't have a real pattern to give a target for this rally, but i think we should reach the 7700/7800, these levels should form a resistance. So for now my plan will probably be to build up a short position around those levels. But i won't start to build it up when we get there, i will wait patiently until i see some signs of weakness first.
Now something else, i have been working far to much lately and just not getting any rest because of that. I am doing everything myself, answering all the messages and the few people i work with. Until now everything is still for free what i provide here on TV so i don't have the luxury to get some help or support. I am a bit disappointed in myself that i did not spot this small reversal, this is usually what i am good at. Now thinking back on what i saw yesterday the signals were there and similar to others i did spot. Maybe i just missed it, maybe i had it wrong. But what i do know, i have been working none stop lately with average 4/5 hours of sleep. It's clear i need a break, want to say for a week but i know i can't do that. I will start with at least today, it's been 30+ degrees here the past few days and i have been sitting inside all the time.
But next to all of this, taking a break, from at least a certain asset is key to be successful. It's impossible to predict each small wave during the day and when you concentrate to much on 1 asset (i see crypto as 1 asset since they all follow BTC) eventually you loose sight of the bigger picture and objectivity at certain moments. Normally an experienced trader looks at all the markets for opportunities, to search for perfect setups. If it's Gold or Oil, FX or the stock market, their are always great opportunities to catch. But i know most people here don't find that interesting so the focus is completely on Bitcoin. The message of this is, sometimes you can make easy perfect trades a few days in a row on a certain asset, but sometimes you should not even touch it for a while. For example, when Bitcoin was going sideways between the 8000/8800.......................
Uwaga
There were a few small trades to be made there, but it was mostly noise with fake squeezes up and down. Frustrating bulls and bears while doing that! Now the biggest threat of all this, is not that you might make a loosing trade in these consolidation phases. Of course that hurts as well, but if your following the 'rules' you should only loose a very small % of your trading capital. The biggest threat of them all, is you could start to loose your confidence. This is by far the most precious thing to loose! Just think about it, how many times does it happen that you don't take profit if your ahead 200/400 points because you think it will continue up (or down when your short). So many times the price comes back again and with emotional traders it even turns into a loss. This usually happens a few times in a row and than when you keep trying to believe your view is correct and it does go in your direction, you take profit after a 200/400 points because you don't want to feel stupid again to let the profit disappear again. Exactly at those moments the price just continues to go up or down without you, exactly like you thought it would do in the first place. This is not a coincidence, it's how markets work, they exhausts you (or your funds of people trading with leverage). Past year i have traded almost none stop, mostly because of TV. But i had periods when i did not trade, during college for example. But my succes rate of the first trade i made after each break, is at least 95%. Because you start fresh, you don't feel the need to be right or to beat the market. No, you just wait patiently until you see the price or pattern you were waiting for and you take the trade. When you continue to trade non stop, you don't have that luxury because at certain points it becomes a fight, between you and the assets your trading. I am going to leave it with this. Because i can just keep on going :)Uwaga
So far still a very strong and convincing bull flag, best case it stays above the 7350Uwaga
FML, thunderstorm just hit here and the sky is pouring down. After a whole weak of extreme heat, the day i want to take a break this happens. Again, FML :)One positive note, my telegram channel has 1.140 members in 36 hours :)Actually don't even know if that is impressive or not LOL
The rally has slowed down a bit, think we see another small wave down and than we should see the breakout. If this flag takes a whole/half day, than chances increase it was just a squeeze, to push short positions out.
Uwaga
If the price falls below the 7350 ish, than big chance it was a fake breakout after all. Uwaga
This rally is not really convincing, think a drop first needs to happen, as long as it stays above the green areaUwaga
In the bullish version, meaning the support will hold, we should see another small wave down and then start to go up again. Could be right here, but i think the blue line will get followed. But it should not drop to much!Uwaga
I am quite sure it will still make a small drop before going up again. Since it just can't break that channel on the upside. Only a break could bring the rally in danger, but i still think we will go towards the 7700/7900 the coming days. Another possibility is that it keeps on going sideways and make a correction in time instead of price. Ayway, it's not tradable and it's best to wait for some clear direction
Uwaga
Looks like an inverse H&S, same target as the ones i mentioned yesterday. As i mentioned in my previous update, looks like the correction will be in time, going to bore us because this might go on for another (half) day. There is still room for the right shoulder to drop towards the green area. A break of 7550/7600 could end this sideways actionUwaga
The green area should hold, for the high bullish scenario. Below 7250 it could get in trouble!Uwaga
Amazing how things can turn around so quickly, after the initial drop it was obvious it would would make another small peak below the 7300. Thought that if the price would rally up quickly again above the 7350, that bulls would be in the clear again. But that bounce was weak as well. Now big chance we see another small drop. But we need to see a bounce if that happens, otherwise it could become very ugly i am afraid. What is bugging me the most is the daily candle, now i dont use candle stick TA, but some are almost a guarantee. Like the one we had yesterday. A drop below the low and the close above the previous high. Doesn't mean it goes straight up, but i really can't remember if i have ever seen a drop again after at least SOME follow through on the upside. Now my general view is still down, because i assumed this rally would not last very long. But this is a very big surprise to me as well. I told some of my followers that we would probably drop towards the 7400 before going up, i said it since yesterday. But a drop, not a dump like we just seen today. Honestly guys, based on TA we should not drop much more, should stay above the 7250 even, an extension is also possible but than it has to bounce up quickly again. Many alts showed a good bounce from the lows as well so that's also why i did not expect this to happen. If yesterdays squeeze would be like 200/300 points than we all know, those fail many times. But this one was bigger and those usually show a follow through. There is still a chance that it will go up again, as long as a higher low will be made.
Uwaga
For now i still have absolutely no reason to think that this med term bear market is over! My view is still down for the med term, but for now i expect higher prices. But there is a very big resistance around the 7600/7650. In the chart you can see a few possibilities of what i think could happen. The blue and green are most likely, don't think the red will happen. But i do know there is a big chance we might see a retest of the 7350/7400. So even if we drop, that green area should hold, otherwise we could see that red line become reality. At the moment it shows a small bull flag, as i am writing it tries to break upwards, but so far it's failing. So we might get a decision very soon. Only a big break of 7650/7700 could bring is higher without going down first. Maybe 8000 is also possibleUwaga
Almost looks like we will follow the green line (or the red). Bulls can't seem to push throughUwaga
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