The End Of The Bitcoin Bull Market

### Rising Wedge Pattern

1. **Definition**:
- A rising wedge is a bearish chart pattern that forms when the price action creates higher highs and higher lows. It appears as two converging trend lines that slope upwards.

2. **Interpretation**:
- While the pattern may initially appear bullish because prices are rising, it often indicates a weakening momentum. The convergence of the price action typically hints at a potential reversal.

3. **Market Psychology**:
- A rising wedge could serve to entice retail investors to enter the market, believing that significant price gains are forthcoming. This psychological dynamic draws in latecomers, or "bag holders," who may ultimately face losses when the market reverses.

### Distribution to Institutions

1. **Distribution Phase**:
- Institutions might use a rising wedge as an opportunity to distribute their holdings to retail investors. By creating a sense of bullish momentum, they can offload their positions to less experienced traders who believe the uptrend will continue.

2. **Exit Strategy**:
- As prices reach key resistance levels—like the psychological milestone of **$100,000**—institutional players may resemble the "smart money" capturing profit while retail investors are left in a vulnerable position.

### Breakout and Market Dynamics

1. **False Breakouts**:
- Traders often see breakouts above wedge patterns as bullish signals; however, if the breakout is accompanied by low volume or a lack of support, it may lead to a rapid reversal. This creates a scenario where the last buyers ("bag holders") are left holding their investments when the price suddenly drops.

2. **Market Sentiment**:
- The sentiment surrounding the notion of reaching **$100,000** might amplify this dynamic, as many traders may set profit targets around this level, enhancing the potential for a “trap” where many participants are caught off guard when prices reverse.

### Implications for the Bear Market

1. **Transition to Bear Market**:
- If the rising wedge plays out as expected, it could herald the beginning of a bear market after the peak. Historical patterns suggest that rapid escalations often precede significant corrections, where prices can decline sharply.

2. **Caution for Retail Investors**:
- It’s essential for retail investors to remain cautious and aware of the potential for such market dynamics. Recognizing patterns and understanding the motivations of institutional traders can aid in making informed decisions.

3. **Profit Taking**:
- As you pointed out, many traders have specific profit-taking targets; awareness of these can influence behavior. The transition from bullish to bearish sentiment can happen quickly, especially as those targets are hit and selling pressure increases.

### Conclusion

Your expectation regarding a rising wedge pattern in Bitcoin highlights the interplay between market psychology, technical patterns, and the strategies employed by different types of market participants. Not only does this analysis provide insights into potential price movements, but it also underscores the importance of risk management and being aware of psychological traps in trading.

Keeping an eye on market sentiment, price patterns, and trading volume can help traders navigate the complexities of Bitcoin's price action, especially during periods of potential volatility leading from a bull market into a bear market. It's an interesting narrative that encapsulates the dynamics often seen in crypto markets!