Keep an eye on the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator and unemployment rates. If it hits 4.3%, prepare for a potential recession.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME
The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator is at 0.43, just shy of the 0.5 mark that signals a recession. The latest unemployment rate is 4.1% (6/1/2024), but if it hits 4.3%, the recession signal will trigger.
Real-World Signs
Big companies are quietly laying off workers and not hiring replacements. New car sales are down, housing starts are down, and inflation with high interest rates is squeezing the economy. These are signs we might already be in a recession.
Stock Market Risks
The stock market is moving wildly, and the risk of a black swan event is high. Historical data shows that when unemployment rises sharply, the stock market often takes a nosedive.
a recession could cause stocks to drop as much as 27%, similar to past market crashes. Additionally, high levels of corporate debt and the possibility of a bursting debt bubble add to the risks.
Bitcoin as a Hedge
Bitcoin may enter a bear market temporarily, but it could become a hedge against the stock market crash. Investors might turn to Bitcoin to protect their assets during economic downturns.
Exchanges like Binance are accumulating the most of the recent supply shocks. These exchanges are buying large amounts of BTC but using derivatives to keep the price artificially low (order book data, filtered by $5M orders, including time and behavior during NY stock market close). This manipulation suggests that big money is preparing for Bitcoin to be a hedge against potential recession or deep correction.
Bitcoin Strategy
If Bitcoin prices drop below
52K, consider buying the dips and accumulating.
For instance, each time BTC's weekly price decreases between 4% to 6%, you buy an additional 6% until your dedicated capital for buying the dip is exhausted.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME
The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator is at 0.43, just shy of the 0.5 mark that signals a recession. The latest unemployment rate is 4.1% (6/1/2024), but if it hits 4.3%, the recession signal will trigger.
Real-World Signs
Big companies are quietly laying off workers and not hiring replacements. New car sales are down, housing starts are down, and inflation with high interest rates is squeezing the economy. These are signs we might already be in a recession.
Stock Market Risks
The stock market is moving wildly, and the risk of a black swan event is high. Historical data shows that when unemployment rises sharply, the stock market often takes a nosedive.
a recession could cause stocks to drop as much as 27%, similar to past market crashes. Additionally, high levels of corporate debt and the possibility of a bursting debt bubble add to the risks.
Bitcoin as a Hedge
Bitcoin may enter a bear market temporarily, but it could become a hedge against the stock market crash. Investors might turn to Bitcoin to protect their assets during economic downturns.
Exchanges like Binance are accumulating the most of the recent supply shocks. These exchanges are buying large amounts of BTC but using derivatives to keep the price artificially low (order book data, filtered by $5M orders, including time and behavior during NY stock market close). This manipulation suggests that big money is preparing for Bitcoin to be a hedge against potential recession or deep correction.
Bitcoin Strategy
If Bitcoin prices drop below
52K, consider buying the dips and accumulating.- Since April 2021, on average (during retraces, bull markets, and bear markets), BTC has lost 6% of its value (weekly).
- In bear markets, the drop can be as high as 15%, while in bull markets, it can be less than 2%.
For instance, each time BTC's weekly price decreases between 4% to 6%, you buy an additional 6% until your dedicated capital for buying the dip is exhausted.
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Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności
Informacje i publikacje przygotowane przez TradingView lub jego użytkowników, prezentowane na tej stronie, nie stanowią rekomendacji ani porad handlowych, inwestycyjnych i finansowych i nie powinny być w ten sposób traktowane ani wykorzystywane. Więcej informacji na ten temat znajdziesz w naszym Regulaminie.