BTC Near Term Possibilities

27 cze 2018

Hello Traders,

BTC has broken the symmetrical triangle on 10th of June, also created an inverse cup and handle as a pattern by doing so. Right now we are testing the bottom of the descending triangle and the most probable breakout for a descending triangle is downwards.
Potential upwards price action: Only to test the hypotenuse of the descending triangle around 6.4-6.5k, depending on the day. If we breakout from the descending triangle, I might consider long positions. I consider breaking out upwards less probable.
Potential downward price action: Breakout of the descending triangle should occur around 5.8k. When the breakout happens, I don't see any strong support until high 4k area (4.7-4.9k, where long term trendline and weekly 100 SMA acts as support). I consider breaking out downwards more probable.

Remember, stop buy/stop losses and risk management are the key for successful trading. Patterns might or might not come to realization. They are there to adjust the entry/exit positions and to manage risk.

This is not a financial advice. Good luck!

27 cze 2018

Uwaga

Daily chart for detailed view:

27 cze 2018

Uwaga

Looking at H1, we seem to have an ascending triangle. Even though the reliability of the patterns decreases in smaller time frames, I took a long position with a very tight stop loss.



This is a very short term position I am taking. Long term still looks very bearish.

27 cze 2018

Uwaga

Out. Stop loss triggered.

28 cze 2018

Uwaga

Broke the wedge. According to longs vs shorts, there aren't enough shorts to do a short squeeze so most likely we go down from here.

2 lip 2018

Uwaga

BTC broke the descending triangle towards upwards. The major resistances are numbered below. I will be watching the price action from sideways to get more confirmation of the upwards price action.

3 lip 2018

Uwaga

We have formed a very nice rounding bottom in the weekly chart. We should see a correction towards 6500 before continuing the bullish trend. Please note that I don't think this is the moon mission but rather an upwards correction after 6 weeks of bearish price action.

3 lip 2018

Uwaga

Showed by the early comment from a day ago. We have a confirmed short term double bottom. However, according to Schabacker, short term double bottoms/tops are not very reliable and needs additional confirmation by other patterns.
We might be forming a inverted H&S pattern, which is very convenient for the recent price action as we need some correction...

I will be watching the price action and updating the idea accordingly.

5 lip 2018

Uwaga

We are again in an ascending wedge, which usually ends up with bearish breakout.
For the bullish scenario, we have 6300-6350 as strong support, where we could see the forming of right shoulder of possible inverted H&S, which could shoot us to 7600 dollars
For the bearish scenario, we could see lower lows towards sub 5500 dollars

10 lip 2018

Uwaga

Update: Double bottom has still not been invalidated and there is still potential for the completion of inv. H&S and price moving towards 7600 area. For this to happen, we need confirmation by breaking 6900 price area.
On the bearish side, we might see movement towards the target of 4.8-5k area. The price needs to break the support at 6200-6350 levels.

12 lip 2018

Uwaga

Double bottom has been invalidated. Inv. H&S is still a possibility for the bulls. H4 is showing bullish divergence. Bulls will need to push the price back up to 6350-6400 levels within the next hours...
On the bearish side, sideways would mean that the new price is accepted and it would open the retest of 6100 resistance and below.

We are at a speculative area. I opened a long position, just because the price got instantly rejected at 6100 areas and the H4 candle is sofar showing a hammer candlestick. Should the reversal play, we should not close below 6085, which is also my SL. Also, if we go sideways for a day and I see BTC dominance is rising, I will get out of this trade as well.
Safe trades!

18 lip 2018

Uwaga

Inv. H&S has been realized and almost reached its target.
Bullish Scenario:
Heading towards 8900 and testing D1 200 SMA, which has been rejected 3 times since the beginning correction.
Resistances:
1. 7613, Daily 100 SMA
2. 7730, Weekly 20 SMA
3. 7850, upper side of the symmetrical triangle
4. 8275, Weekly 50 SMA

Please note that the first 3 resistances mentioned above will be hard to break for the bulls. There has been almost a 3 week price action going on in that area and was previously acting as support.

Bearish Scenario:
Still the same as my original idea, which is around 4800 (Weekly 100 SMA)
Immediate supports to break:
1. 7300
2. 7080
3. 6800

We had a bearish divergence on H1 time frame and right now going through a small correction.


Short term I am bullish. Yesterday we extremely high volume and these volumes have a tendency to continue the price action, meaning buy volume --> upwards price action, sell volume --> downwards price action. However, unless 8900 is taken out, I don't believe we saw the end of this correction and will see lower lows midterm.

Happy trading!

18 lip 2018

Uwaga

I am out since 7490. With hitting 7600 (Daily EMA100), we also hit the lower side of the symmetrical triangle we broke downwards on 10th of July.

This could stay play both ways but if we push again, one of the possible scenario is that we are forming a broadening top:

Please note that it is still too early to call it a broadening top. I will continue to update the idea.
Safe trading!

20 lip 2018

Uwaga

Here is how I see things could be evolving during the weekend.

Could also do none of these and go sideways as well.
Stay safe and have a wonderful weekend!

23 lip 2018

Uwaga

Hello,
BTC is very bullish and the sentiment is up right now. However, 7800 seems to be a strong resistance due to two factors:
1. Possible inverse H&S neckline, with a target of 9800
2. It touches the downtrend line of the symmetrical triangle, which was broken on 11th of June
Here are the possible scenarios:

Bullish scenario 1: Bulls just break the resistance at 7800-7900 area and move towards 8800. I find this path less probable but will be waiting with a stop buy order at 7900
Bullish scenario 2: Bulls retrace back to 7125 area to gather some strength and try to break the resistance from downtrend line of the symmetrical triangle, possibly forming a larger inverted H&S. I don't like the volume of the LS of this larger potential inv. H&S. If market chooses to go that way, I will buy but will be careful with the 7557 area.
Bearish scenario 1: Bulls fail to break the downtrend line of the symmetrical triangle after the retrace and we move down to test the neckline of the smaller inv. H&S. Weekly 9 SMA should support us around those levels as well.
Bearish scenario 2: inv H&S neckline gets broken and we go to test 6200 area. With this sentiment in the market, I see this the least probable though. However, we need to asses all the possibilities to have a proper risk/reward management.

Safe trades!

23 lip 2018

Uwaga

Update on bullish scenario 1: The target is 8374 and not towards 8800. I made a miscalculation. Here is the updated sheet

24 lip 2018

Transakcja zamknięta: osiągnięto wyznaczony cel

Bullish Target reached

Larger scale inv. H&S is not valid anymore.
By touching the target, we also touched 61.8% retracement level of the bearish trend, which started in the beginning of May.
BTC still looking quite bullish but I would be careful to go long from the current price point. From here we might go to daily 200 SMA to test for the 4th time, consolidate or change course. I am closing the trade and will start with a new idea once the market reveals more information.
Stay safe!