BTC – Strength or Weakness

30 cze

As we prepare to roll into the 11th week after the Bitcoin Halving event, we can see that the typical price oscillations creating fear, uncertainty and doubt in the new investors have been playing out.

However, there are many indicators that suggest that the BTC price is well supported and is setting up for a nice rally into OCT-NOV 2025, but of course, there are some bearish concerns also. Here are some of my observations:

Reasons to be Bullish

• Lines of Support – Price has bounced nicely off a convergent area of support, where we see a strong raising support line (Black dotted), converging with the 0.786 fraction of the declining Fibonacci channel, coincident with the lower wick of this week’s candle.
  
• Zone of Support – this week has also seen price continue to test a strong zone of support between 58k & 61k, which it has been bouncing off since March. This also aligns with S1 support level of the Monthly Pivot.
  
• Fibonacci Retracement – Support is also seen at the 0.786 level of the Fibonacci retracement from the previous all time high also sits just under the wick of the weekly candle. A climb back about $61.4 will reclaim both the S1 Monthly Pivot level as well as the 0.618 level of the declining channel. Just $550 above the current price.
  
• Bollinger Bands – Here we also see the lower Bollinger Band rising to support the price as the upper band is falling to squeeze the range. It’s worth noting that the lower BB has never been broken between a halving event and the next all time high.
  
• Moving Averages – the 100MA is rising toward a bullish cross above the 200MA.
  
• RSI – we see a pivotal line of support being touched, from which has operated as a floor for previous post-halving bull runs.
  
• Inverse Head & Shoulders – The price action since march has traced out what could well be an iH&S pattern, which will be confirmed if price doesn’t fall back below $56,522k and can rise back above 72k. Given the above setup of supports, such an event would see a pretty quick run towards c.90K, the 1.382 retracement level of the previous bear market.
  

Reasons to be Bearish

• MACD – Here we see that short-term MACD demonstrates is still accelerating to the downside.
  
• 3 Black Crows – the past 3 weeks have seen successive lower lows in overlapping candlesticks. This can be a bearish setup indicative of a significant corrective period beginning.
  

What do you think? Are we about to see an extended correction, perhaps to 48.5k at the 0.618 retracement level of the previous bear market? (This would be a nice setup for a large Cup & Handle pattern.) Or, are we about to turn the corner on this correction and drive back up over 72k for a rally to new all-time highs?