I have been short for the past week since the fall earlier this week which closed below the trend line. Like everyone else, I've been watching this descending triangle/falling wedge anticipating a big move. Along with this large structure setup, the US/China trade war ongoing, and the much anticipated launch of BAKKT; I was looking for a nice dump to re-touch the structure floor around $9000-9300 and see how price reacts. After analyzing the chart today looking for confirmations of my predictions I noticed a possible BEAR trap on the 4H. I found a strong trend line formation which began from the high on 8/19 at $10950 with re-touch/rejection/resistance on 8/25 at $10685. This descending trend line was broken on 9/2 with re-touch/support on 9/3, 9/6, and 9/9. While price did wick below this descending trend line during the last 4H candle, it failed to close below. Also, since the previous high at $10930 on 9/6 a falling wedge has been formed with a re-touch/rejection/resistance yesterday at $10540. This formation has me second guessing my price prediction as there are several factors, as I previously mentioned, that would influence a massive move to the upside and the big money could be easily be influencing this price to accumulate while manipulating retail traders into thinking it's about to dump. A part from the strong support around the low-9k levels, there is a massive ascending trend line as well which began on 7/16 when price dumped to $9080 with a re-touch/support on 7/28 at $9125. There is another, weaker, ascending trend line which began at the previous low on 8/29 at $9325 and re-touch/support on 8/31 at $9440.
With all that said, I am keeping a very close eye on charts today. While many are anticipating a few more days of bouncing around in this range, I am not so sure. A close below $9800 will confirm my original prediction and my initial TP will be around $9200 then will see how price reacts. If price cannot close below $9800 and instead can close above $10470-10570, I will be looking to go long. HOWEVER, watch for a possible rejection around $10750-10950 as an ascending trend line has formed starting on 8/31 at $9440 and a re-touch/support on 9/6 at $10190.
Let me know what you think.