BitcoinShort
Shorting BTC again
In our last Bitcoin analysis with our TTW (trend-time-weight) system, we clearly positioned our portfolios for a very likely steady decline in the value of BTC with a target of 20K.
Now that we are here, BTC is in a stage 4 (bearish), entering the 210 MA average on the weekly chart (the reference for a bearish market in the mid and long run). Under no circumstances should we find buying opportunities right now if an active trading approach is implemented, only if a passive approach is sought.
Since early summer, BTC has been at a support which, if breached to the downside, the token could reach 11K-9K levels. The RSI on the weekly chart is clearly bearish, at minus 34, and the MACD is clearly showing a downtrend that we could take advantage of with a quantitative trend-following strategy.
The probability of a trend reversal is actually very small in percentage terms, because the trend should first go through a stage 1, and then stage 2, but now it is still in stage 4, and it is quite a long way off (6-12 months, at least).
In terms of all our chartist, space-temporal, fundamental, economic and manipulative analysis, the most likely scenario is a downtrend to around $11,000 in the next few months.
Of course, we never know the future, and we are also prepared for a bullish pullback even if it is a very unlikely scenario, but professionally I would not see BTC as an interesting buy until the token reaches a value of around $30 000.
Strategy:
- Sell Stop: 16.500.
- 1st Stop Loss (0.25% of our portfolio value): 20.100.
- 2nd Stop Loss (0.5% of the value of our portfolio): 22.000
- 1st Take Profit (50% out): 11.000
- 2nd Take Profit (50% out): 9.000
- Margin requirements, swaps, spreads, execution model..: Depending on the derivatives exchange you use.
Now that we are here, BTC is in a stage 4 (bearish), entering the 210 MA average on the weekly chart (the reference for a bearish market in the mid and long run). Under no circumstances should we find buying opportunities right now if an active trading approach is implemented, only if a passive approach is sought.
Since early summer, BTC has been at a support which, if breached to the downside, the token could reach 11K-9K levels. The RSI on the weekly chart is clearly bearish, at minus 34, and the MACD is clearly showing a downtrend that we could take advantage of with a quantitative trend-following strategy.
The probability of a trend reversal is actually very small in percentage terms, because the trend should first go through a stage 1, and then stage 2, but now it is still in stage 4, and it is quite a long way off (6-12 months, at least).
In terms of all our chartist, space-temporal, fundamental, economic and manipulative analysis, the most likely scenario is a downtrend to around $11,000 in the next few months.
Of course, we never know the future, and we are also prepared for a bullish pullback even if it is a very unlikely scenario, but professionally I would not see BTC as an interesting buy until the token reaches a value of around $30 000.
Strategy:
- Sell Stop: 16.500.
- 1st Stop Loss (0.25% of our portfolio value): 20.100.
- 2nd Stop Loss (0.5% of the value of our portfolio): 22.000
- 1st Take Profit (50% out): 11.000
- 2nd Take Profit (50% out): 9.000
- Margin requirements, swaps, spreads, execution model..: Depending on the derivatives exchange you use.
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