Bitcoin - Upside potential of 22% to 38%

4 cze

I'm looking at the Elliott Wave structure here and using the Fibonacci retracement and projection tools to determine the most likely resistance zones.

Why? Because it's clear by now that price is consolidating and a new move higher is about to come (depending on your trading style, the rise has already started).

So, I don't think the question here is IF bitcoin will go higher but rather WHEN.
Chances that this will collapse before we see a new high first are low in my humble opinion.
(low =/= zero, so always use a Stop loss!)
(Personally I bought BNB yesterday which in hindsight was not a bad idea, 🍀! ).

So, back to our upside targets.
First off though,
The measures shown here are valid ONLY IF my minuette (blue) wave count is correct!

I'm being cautiously bullish and assuming the blue wave count being an impulse with an extended wave (i) of 96% increase and a wave (iii) being 78%.

For those that don't know, the Elliott Wave theory has some very simple rules and guidelines and one of them is that wave 3 can never be the shortest, meaning it can not be shorter than wave 1 AND wave 5! (don't worry about wave 2 and 4 for now).

So, by respecting that rule we can assume that wave (v) must no be more than 78% otherwise this wave count is incorrect and we have to consider a more aggressively bullish view. (look at my previous post about Bitcoin).

So, in that case, the wave count gets invalidated if price goes above 108k.

By measuring different lengths of current rise using the Fibonacci projections and retracements, we get some cluster zones where different measures come together. Those zones, we can expect, are the most likely to act as resistance and that price will slow down and consolidate or simply reverse from those.
(Remember, support and resistance levels are always hypothetical, we can only be sure once they are established!!!)

Here, according to my measures, the most likely levels are
[86k ; 87k] and [96.5k ; 97.5k].

For those who like it, by also studying the expected rise on a smaller time frame coming days, (remember, markets are fractal), we can again use the Fib measures to better pinpoint the potential reversal zone(s) of the move.

Depending on your entry, risk appetite and simply your trading time frame, consider it for yourself if micromanaging the position is worth it.

Thank you for reading my post, hope it's helpful.


PS : sorry if the chart isn't very clear, I'm on the road and don't have my computers with me but wanted to still share my opinion on this one.

PS :