Bitcoin: Long-Term Recurring Cycles via Fibs

Monthly reminder that prices move in fibonacci proportions to its own size. I'll provide the most extreme version for illustration purposes.

Let's focus on first ATH after which there was the heaviest decline of 93% and use those coordinates in order to explain the rest recurring cycles.

Now, if we capture the first notable cycle (around 2010-2011) with fibonacci channels and adjust the direction to the most common angle of decline, it reveals not just the reversal levels but its timing. (Traders typically use Fibonacci channels by connecting two highs to establish the overall trend direction, with a third point linking a low to anticipate key price levels. However, when applied in reverse—using a high and a low to define direction and a third point to map a cycle—it not only identifies potential price targets but also uncovers critical timing patterns within the market.)

The logic is that when price surges to a new all-time high (ATH) and breaks through a Fibonacci level without pausing, it tends to continue toward the next Fibonacci level, which is more likely to act as a stronger resistance and trigger a significant correction.

Instead of relying on subjective directional arrows or subjective Elliott Wave interpretations, Fibonacci Channels provide a more objective and structured outlook on market movements.

Since people react to percentage changes rather than absolute values, the logarithmic scale— which represents price movements in percentage-based distances, provides a more accurate reflection of market behavior. As a result, most of Bitcoin’s major declines exhibit a consistent angle on a logarithmic chart, highlighting the recurring nature of these corrections. This reinforces the validity of using logarithmic-based Fibonacci analysis, as it objectively captures both the cyclical nature of price movements and the psychological impact of percentage-based fluctuations.