BTC ... the bears doing it smart this time...

12 wrz 2018

Back on June 23rd ... the bears allowed BTC to find relief at 6200 only for 1 day, and then tried taking it down. That caused them to lose the battle. Let me explain ... we are all dealing with people, who have emotions ... fear, fomo, greed, etc. After pushing BTC down to 6k, many people took profit on shorts and some even longed ... after 1 day of consolidation at 6.2k do you think people were ready to exit longs or renter shorts at that low of an entry??? Not a chance. They tried to get it, aiming for 5k or lower, and they only managed 5.755k. It was obvious they would fail.

That cost them 3 months. They needed to let it go up, so they could have another change at 5k ... and here it is. Now they are doing it right ... holding it here at 6200 to 6400. They have been adding buy walls at 6200 and sell walls at 6400, keeping it in range for over 1 week, and maybe it will be here for much longer. This will cause longs to become exhausted and nervous ... and prepare their emotions for an easier exit. Shorts will begin to add to their confidence and look to enter new shorts at the low price of 6400. All they need is 2 things ... enough time to dissipate hope of a rally, and a catalyst (bad news like ETF denied/delayed, major exchange hack?). A pitchfork I drew suggests we could go sideways for a while, with a bearish tendency.

I see some telegram groups calling for longs on ALTS. Yes, for sure these prices are attractive ... major discount at the moment, but if BTC drops, they'll bleed to death. Could ETH reach $110 ... it probably will if BTC goes to 5k now. So be careful.

Now, I try and never only speak one direction. It is possible that BTC rallies up and the key targets are 6600, 6800 and I see the top at 7200 if we go up in 1 straight line (which we won't). The 1 day ichi cloud calls for this, and I think the highest probability target on a rally is around 6800 - 6900. This will test the top of the big triangle at play (see purple triangle) at around the time I expect it to be tested.

I don't know which game the market will play ... will they take it down soon to a new bottom, this is my slightly higher probability, given the sentiment. This is the red line on my chart ... but the blue line is possible too. I really do think the way we go is dependent on the expected news from SEC an the CBOE ETF at end September ... will it be good (approved) or bad (delay/declined)? For now, this is a no trade zone for me ... I have shorts waiting to trigger higher and longs waiting to trigger much lower. Patience is key ... please do not get bored and make a mistake ... I think that's exactly the trap they want us to fall into.

Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.

Do not use this info for trading/investment/financial decisions. For educational purposes only.

13 wrz 2018

Uwaga

Just some minor adjustments, looking at key fibo's more closely. A break of 6650 seems to be the more important number for me right now. No doubt bulls did well to push out of the 6200 to 6400 zone ... but much resistance lies ahead. Sell orders are stacking at 6600. If they break 6650, then 6900 is the next big resistance. After that, the larger triangle has a top at around 7200 right now ... but we won't get there in one line, so by the time we intersect it we will be lower. Will keep adjusting as data comes in.

17 wrz 2018

Uwaga

Bears are attempting to paint that red wave now ... get you're popcorn, stand back and watch. Let's see if they have enough power ... observe how the market reacts. Watch the momentum.

18 wrz 2018

Uwaga

Some adjustments folks. The bears are having a hard time breaking the big triangle. I suspect we need news to catalyze the price in one direction or the other. I'm sensing that if it falls, it won't be as hard as I originally thought. Red wave has been shortened. This doesn't mean that's the absolute bottom ... but for this wave, the likely bottom now adjusted to 5400. Strange after 6 months, back in March, I came up with a BTC bottom of 5400 ...

Don't forget the blue wave ... good news will make it happen, we still have big support between 5750 and 6200.

19 wrz 2018

Uwaga

OK, so interesting candle there. Down 300 points, up 450 points ... this does not invalidate either the red or blue waves (believe it or not), but it does provide clarity. So I've made some adjustments. I think we are doing a big ABCDE wave, and we are about to go to 6700 to 6900 territory. I have short orders sitting there.

On the other hand, this move up has not invalidated the red wave down (not yet, if it goes to 6600, it does).

So, given this is still in the range of death ... 6100 to 6500, I suggest being patient to see what the market does.

25 wrz 2018

Uwaga

Hello everyone, back from a road trip today. Since then I had a short order fill at 6800, and just closed that at 6400. There is a buy wall setup at 6350 so assuming that is real, the whales won't let it go down much further.

Looking at movements, ichi cloud, and wave analysis, this is what I'm expecting over the next few days. Pay attention to the orange ABCDE triangle wave I've drawn ... this is representative of the undecided market, and takes us to D DAY, the day SEC provides some direction on the CBOE ETF. I suspect it will be a delay. We have time for one more movement up, and I see a lot of resistance at 6800 (ichi, log trend lines, previous high). For those that want to understand this better, the ABCDE triangle wave ... if you look at each individual wave (and we are forming D now), they are typically made up of an ABC subwave. So that's why I expect this D wave to be an ABC wave (see blue wave). Then we form wave E, which can be an impulse and I suspect down (due to bad news or delay with CBOE ETF). That can take use down to the 5k territory. So right now my adjusted bottom target is 5k to 5.4k. However, if CBOE ETF is good news, then wave E can form a bear trap (small dump before the news comes out), complete a truncated wave E, and then shoot up.