Bitcoin - Bears Still Spanking the Bulls!
Hello my good friends. Welcome to this wonderful fractal and technical combo analysis of our beloved bitcoin. Here, we're looking at the four hour chart of bitcoin starting all the way from Feb 6th.
If you can recall from my previous analysis, I stated that the bottom of the falling wedge has enough power to put a temporary end to the free fall in bitcoin price. We didn't manage to get there, instead, there was a very fake breakout of the top of the wedge with low volume and now we've crashed back into the falling wedge on very high volume and heading steeply lower. The bottom of the wedge remains my downside target, even as it keeps dropping lower and lower. What this means is that we have a good chance of seeing bitcoin go below the 5k level.
Now, at first sight, this seems to be a very bizarre target for the mother of all coins, but I want you all to remember that when we were at 20k, 6k was a very bizarre target for bitcoin and what later happened? You tell me!
I also want to call your attention to the yellow spheres on my chart. On close observation, you'll see that each time we have this particular kind of 3 waves up, it's always followed by a double top and then a sharp decline going below the previous lows. If history is something to go by, then we have another evidence that we're going below the 6k level here.
You can safely go short on any slight pullback or even from the current levels and take profits at intervals all the way to 5k. I'm not giving any levels for going long here, as the market is heavily bearish, but you can safely go long with a tight stop loss if we manage to get to the bottom of the wedge, which now lies a bit below 5k.
Remember, I'm not using a crystal ball here, and no TA is 100% guaranteed to succeed, so use my advice as hints in doing your own research. Good luck my good friends.
Much love from Commodore!
If you can recall from my previous analysis, I stated that the bottom of the falling wedge has enough power to put a temporary end to the free fall in bitcoin price. We didn't manage to get there, instead, there was a very fake breakout of the top of the wedge with low volume and now we've crashed back into the falling wedge on very high volume and heading steeply lower. The bottom of the wedge remains my downside target, even as it keeps dropping lower and lower. What this means is that we have a good chance of seeing bitcoin go below the 5k level.
Now, at first sight, this seems to be a very bizarre target for the mother of all coins, but I want you all to remember that when we were at 20k, 6k was a very bizarre target for bitcoin and what later happened? You tell me!
I also want to call your attention to the yellow spheres on my chart. On close observation, you'll see that each time we have this particular kind of 3 waves up, it's always followed by a double top and then a sharp decline going below the previous lows. If history is something to go by, then we have another evidence that we're going below the 6k level here.
You can safely go short on any slight pullback or even from the current levels and take profits at intervals all the way to 5k. I'm not giving any levels for going long here, as the market is heavily bearish, but you can safely go long with a tight stop loss if we manage to get to the bottom of the wedge, which now lies a bit below 5k.
Remember, I'm not using a crystal ball here, and no TA is 100% guaranteed to succeed, so use my advice as hints in doing your own research. Good luck my good friends.
Much love from Commodore!
Uwaga
And, oh yeah, don't forget to smash that LIKE button if my analysis makes sense to you :)Uwaga
A lot of people are criticizing my statement that bitcoin has "fallen back into the wedge". Some say it's still just above the wedge. Well, I want to bring two things to your notice: 1) I pay very stern attention to volume while doing any TA, especially when I'm dealing with bitcoin, and that's why you always see the OBV indicator in my charts. You can see for yourself that the breakout of the wedge was done on very light volume and the subsequent break back into the wedge was done on very heavy volume. This is what we refer to in TA as a "failed breakout".
2) I recently formed the habit of drawing my trend lines and fib retracements with the magnet tool. This helps eliminate the subjective judgement of whether a trendline has been broken or not as my trend lines are now inch perfect.
Now having these two things in mind, I can authoritatively tell you guys that we are officially still in the wedge (or better still that we have broken back into the wedge). Lookout below!! :D
Uwaga
Close up view of the top of the falling wedge. You can see that after breaking down on heavy volume, the price has rallied back up on low volume to confirm the top of the wedge as resistance. Also notice how hard it fought to get above it in the first place. Uwaga
Minor correction going on. You can use this opportunity to go short if you haven't done so already. Notice the very, very low volume accompanying the mini rally. See you at the bottom folks. Let's make some cool cashOne more thing. If you really want to be a successful trader, you need to have the guts to watch your position go in red. It's all about perfect calculation. You've seen where the price action is going through careful Technical Analysis, and then you place your trade. Suddenly, there is a movement against your trade and you close out at a loss. Then a few minutes later, the trend resumes violently in the original direction you predicted and you're disappointed in yourself... Please avoid this situation at all costs.
Never enter trades with all your cash, especially if you're trading on margin. Always take into consideration that there will always be some movements a few percentages against the prevailing trend, and that's what we call CORRECTIONS. You don't wanna get liquidated on minor corrections, so place your trades wisely. I'll provide more details about my trading style as time goes on.
Commodore!
Uwaga
Uwaga
Consolidating in a bear flag. I'm scared of heights, so I don't wanna look below! :DUwaga
Heading for the perfect retracement - the 0.618 retracement level. I'll only consider closing my short if we breach the 7200 level. For now, sit tight and watch bitcoin plummet after this retracementUwaga
Switching to log scale, it's much clearer that we're still in a downtrend. Remember when BTC rallied above 11k and people were screaming that we've broken the downtrend channel, while the log scale downtrend was still intact? History repeats itself in crypto markets much more often than you thinkUwaga
So our stoploss at $7200 got hit. This looks like a stop hunting mission by some big whale. I must admit almost all the top analysts I know got hit by surprise (well, except filbfilb). I still expect bitcoin to go lower before a new bull run commences, but in the really short term, we can open long positions at the current market price or on a retrace back to 7900 - 8000 with a target of 8900 - 9500. Good luck friends. Commodore cares about you.
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