BTC Correction ?

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Taking a look at the daily BTC chart, I'm new to bitcoin, traded stocks for almost 5 years now, finally getting my toes wet, this chart is being viewed from a "long term" investment 3-5y my case. I am looking to make strategic long term buys.

As for the chart itself...

I'm sensing some over buying here the past couple of days around 16k, the 20d MA and 50d MA seem to be the next support levels should the weekly (thick blue) resistance side of the channel holds and we see a correction.

The lower light blue line represents support levels on what I think is fair correction if one does happen in the next few days;

If perhaps it pushes up to the 20k level (I'm doubtful) the second thin blue line will represent support levels on the ensuing correction, whenever it may be.

From what I have put together this puts BTC at $12,600 lows in December, $14,500 lows around Valentine's day (Feb 14th for you non-muricans) (support projection extended from current 200d MA / 400d MA) - (ceiling being 20k over)

Does this analysis hold any water? Looking for feedback as I'm fairly new to BTC and watching how it moves (just don't pitch your crazy indicators)

Thanks, good luck to all!





Uwaga
update 11/19

seems like the second blue line will end up being support on ensuing correction, seems like we've topped out here around $18,300, but that is yet to be confirmed.

Good luck to all.
Uwaga
11/19 a play between the first and second light blue projection lines seems more likely given the weekly resistance, justa n exiting thought
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