Bitcoin Is Perfectly On Track This Cycle

In this analysis I want to take a closer look at Bitcoin's current bull-cycle and compare it with the previous cycles. I count from December 2011 onwards.

As seen on the chart, the first cycle (yellow) is an outlier in both duration and growth. We will likely never experience something like that again.

The most interesting cycles to compare the current cycle to ar the second (blue) and the third (purple).

As Bitcoin matures as an asser, it will likely experience diminishing returns. In other words; lower total gains from bear bottom to bull top.

However, cycle 4 is outperforming both previous cycles at their respective times. The most logical explanation would be that we had the BTC Spot ETF this year, which caused massive bullish pressure from institutional investors. Chances are that we have to endure a couple more neutral/bearish months in order to get below the blue and purple lines before we can see any substantial growth to >100k.

All in all, this cycle is on track with the previous cycles. If it were to follow the last two, we can expect BTC to top somewhere in the last quarter of 2025.

Happy to hear your thoughts!