BTCUSD: Needs Breakout Before Pump

29 maj 2023

Today's relief rally to $28,500 needs confirmation on both sides before we can see the broader picture. BTCUSD is currently making lower highs in a distinctive consolidation pattern, with tremendous support at $26,600 and multiple (failed) attempts to create higher highs. Here are some of my observations for both the bulls and the bears and I'll leave it for you guys to discuss in the comments.

• For the Bears: We need a lower high on the RSI before we can label this as a rejection off the red resistance line. A fall below $26,600 would make this rally a classic head and shoulders pattern, in which the price could potentially fall through the liquidity zone after its parabolic rise earlier this year.
  
  
• For the Bulls:
  
  The RSI has consistently been making higher lows since March 10th. This pattern is similar to the higher lows pattern that preceded January's liquidity pump after the FTX fallout, where BTCUSD rapidly rose up to meet the pre-fallout price levels. We would need a strong break through the red resistance line and a higher high to confirm that a macro rally has actually begun.
  

My verdict: if a pump to $29,000 or $30,000 is coming, I don't think it is in today's rally. The RSI has risen too quickly when compared to previous macro rallies, and the red structural resistance hasn't been broken through. Rather, I believe today was an influx of capital because a) the opening on Hong Kong / China to crypto once again and b) the tentative debt ceiling agreement reached by the US Congress. Be sure to keep an eye on the red resistance line, and also the volume profile at about 29K. I will enter long or enter short depending on future price action and confirmation, but for now I am neutral.