BitcoinShort
Clever title here
Zaktualizowano
Ladies and gentleman, Bitcoin gots some problems.
Within 10 days we will know our mid-term direction, and it is NOT looking good, but NOT looking horrible.
Let me show you an in-depth analysis why.
Right now the WEEKLY is showing a confluence of EXTREME, nearly unbreakable resistance.
-Weekly RSI resistance from our ATH (Which we were just rejected at on the weekly.)
-Weekly RSI resistance from prior RSI support (Also got rejected here.)
-Weekly price resistance from our ATH. (REJECTED)
The trifecta. See more below.
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First off - the short term outlook.
This is a 6h close-up analysis of a rather large bullish wedge we are currently ranging inside. An interesting discovery was made when I realized the trend line support + resistances I plotted on the weekly were extremely reliable in backtesting by predicting high accuracy trading opportunities within the 6h time frame.
Click on the idea above and read to learn more.
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Next, we have a daily chart with the same weekly trend line support and resistance. Interestingly enough, this is by far the longest Bitcoin has been able to hold ABOVE the ATH RSI resistance since we initially began downtrend.
AND WE'RE SIDEWAYS!! WTF?
We have done nothing for the entire past year but make lower highs, so the trend is obviously bearish. I believe we will soon have a green daily candle that will form yet another lower high, then get rejected off the ATH wedge. At that very point, Bitcoin will then in my opinion dump to either the bottom of the wedge, or a new low.
At worst, Bitcoin must either hold above $3,300 for the short term bullish wedge to play out, or create a double bottom at around $3,150. Considering how long price has been stagnant above extreme RSI resistance, I find it hard to believe a double bottom is much of a possibility at this point. When this thing breaks, it's going to be VIOLENT.
If we break below $3,120 with momentum, MINIMUM bear target I see is the 2.618 located around $2,435.
Past that, targets are marked.
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Within 10 days we will know our mid-term direction, and it is NOT looking good, but NOT looking horrible.
Let me show you an in-depth analysis why.
Right now the WEEKLY is showing a confluence of EXTREME, nearly unbreakable resistance.
-Weekly RSI resistance from our ATH (Which we were just rejected at on the weekly.)
-Weekly RSI resistance from prior RSI support (Also got rejected here.)
-Weekly price resistance from our ATH. (REJECTED)
The trifecta. See more below.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
First off - the short term outlook.
This is a 6h close-up analysis of a rather large bullish wedge we are currently ranging inside. An interesting discovery was made when I realized the trend line support + resistances I plotted on the weekly were extremely reliable in backtesting by predicting high accuracy trading opportunities within the 6h time frame.
Click on the idea above and read to learn more.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Next, we have a daily chart with the same weekly trend line support and resistance. Interestingly enough, this is by far the longest Bitcoin has been able to hold ABOVE the ATH RSI resistance since we initially began downtrend.
AND WE'RE SIDEWAYS!! WTF?
We have done nothing for the entire past year but make lower highs, so the trend is obviously bearish. I believe we will soon have a green daily candle that will form yet another lower high, then get rejected off the ATH wedge. At that very point, Bitcoin will then in my opinion dump to either the bottom of the wedge, or a new low.
At worst, Bitcoin must either hold above $3,300 for the short term bullish wedge to play out, or create a double bottom at around $3,150. Considering how long price has been stagnant above extreme RSI resistance, I find it hard to believe a double bottom is much of a possibility at this point. When this thing breaks, it's going to be VIOLENT.
If we break below $3,120 with momentum, MINIMUM bear target I see is the 2.618 located around $2,435.
Past that, targets are marked.
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Uwaga
HOWEVER.Some very bullish signals I am seeing.
On the DAILY chart idea shown above, you can see that RSI went SEVERELY under the blue weekly ATH RSI support.
This RSI drop was the worst daily RSI drop in the entire history of Bitcoin. And it's due to some 'hash war'? (lol)
However, as soon as it found support on the blue RSI trend line with RSI divergence, Bitcoin began uptrend and SKYROCKETED well above the red weekly ATH RSI resistance. (We have been above it since)
In the 6h chart idea shown above, any time Bitcoin has a violent break of this red RSI trend line and then bounces off of it, a valid, safe, and high reward trading opportunity occurs.
Notice where the RSI is sitting on the DAILY chart....Above the red RSI trend line with no test of it yet. I expect that to be where we visit next. In fact, this is the most amount of time since the ATH that Bitcoin has been able to sustain above this weekly RSI resistance. It makes sense now as to why we have had very low volume with extremely stagnant price action since we broke it. This red resistance is by far and none the strongest resistance we are currently facing. Forget the 200 (E)MA's, forget the DMA, etc.
This will show you exactly what you need to know, if you know what to look for.
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Uwaga
This prolonged sideways movement ABOVE the strongest RSI resistance we have encountered so far is a very bullish sign in my opinion. I say this because the market is clearly at a very sensitive stage right now and can easily be rattled bear or bull. It has taken Bitcoin WEEKS to grind as low as we have gotten, why? Notice how hard we've been wicking ever since bottom? People are BUYING. Are these whales buying it to dump on us shortly, or are they filling their bags for the moon that may soon follow?COUNTLESS, RELENTLESS attempts have been made for almost THREE WEEKS to bring Bitcoin lower, and by how much?
As of yesterday whales were finally able to succeed in getting us not only to, but below the .786 Fibonacci retracement.
Yet .. we're STILL above that RED RSI resistance on the daily, with a LOT of room to drop before a bounce occurs off of it. Need I mention again for how long?
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Uwaga
ALSO- BIG BIG one here people.February 5th, 2018 was the single worst point loss in history for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Coincidentally, that very same day, the highest single-day buy volume to be seen in Bitcoin in years.
The anniversary of that day is right around the corner....
And it JUST so happens that the apex of the smaller bullish wedge we're in is ...
you guessed it, FEBRUARY 5TH.
Last week on Friday, Gold SKYROCKETED near the end of the trading day. Why?
1) Hidden Bearish Divergence in the daily RSI on the DJI.
2) The dollar had a massively bearish engulfing candle. Weekly on the dollar shows serious weakness. A lot of people would argue that when the dollar is weak, Bitcoin is strong.
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Uwaga
As you can see, price and RSI is forming a now-confirmed, massive falling wedge pattern since ATH. The apex for THIS pattern, aka Bitcoins *bearish* fate, lies between the end of March and May 1st. By Q2 of this year, we will finally know Bitcoins mid-long term fate. Will it be MoonlamboHODLs, or actual, REAL capitulation? As low as $500 or worse if panic truly grips the market, and/or whales decide it's time to cash out. What do you think?
The short-term chart is incredibly bearish...
The mid-term chart is incredibly bearish...
The long-term chart?
Not all hope is lost.
I'm bull. I believe.
This weekly is make or break for Bitcoin.
Get your popcorn ready, less than 10 days to find out.
Uwaga
If a person were not to have a single bias right now for which direction the market will choose, the obvious answer is bear, right?What do you think? PLEASE share and have actual DISCUSSIONS in my comment section rather than giving me some copy+paste job you do to every other popular author to gain views and likes.
HIT THAT LIKE BUTTON AND LETS GET THIS ANALYSIS TO FRONT PAGE!
EVERYONE should see this information!
Uwaga
There is a very high chance we actually hit bottom at $3,120. All year I was a permabull, until the initial burst down. Then I became a massive bear. After digging deeper in the analysis I posted yesterday, I am 100% positive we will not be breaking our current low, at least for now. The thing is, if we do NOT test our current low, we are going to break out of the bullish wedge that has kept us at bay since ATH. There is always the chance 6k will get rejected harder than a teenage nerd and we plummet from there, but I don't think so. I think we will be rejected at first when we get there, then a massive breakout will happen to the upside. What happens past that point is anyone's guess.Price doesn't matter in what I am seeing, the strength of the RSI does....and right now we are well above ATH RSI resistance, and have yet to break back down below it. All year last year we rode that line and always got sucked back below it. If we hold above our current low, there will be no re entry back into RSI support, which means we will for the first time in over a year have a legitimate upside breakout. One with hidden strength so strong that I think it will even surprise the bulliest of bulls. I think this is why longs absolutely fucking skyrocketed - for once they're not playing contrarian, they're as positive as I am that $3,120 was botton. I am sticking by this with conviction, we have one week to pick a mid term direction according to the charts and considering we are consolidating against the most extreme resistance we have ever faced, I think we finally break though. The hash war will potentially go down in history as the black Swan event that caused bitcoin to become stupidly undervalued, and go on to a new ATH. Call me stupid, call me what you want, but I think we are already beginning the next bull run and noone except the monster whales know it.
For what it's worth I'm a permabull, but I'm still pretty bearish atm and would rather be outright wrong. I would much rather see real capitulation as it would give me a lot more time to accumulate. Bitcoin goes vert right now and I will be caught entirely out of position, and so will a LOT of other people. AT MINIMUM I think we at least have a relief rally to mid 5k range.
If the whales didn't get greedy I'd be none the wiser, but they just HAD to double up their sweet sweet stacks. No hard feelings though, I would of done the exact same thing given the same position.
Uwaga
Win win scenario:If Bitcoin goes down, it gives me/you more time and more BTC.
If Bitcoin goes up, it gives me/you more money.
Uwaga
Here is where we are, zoomed out a bit.
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