Alternative view of the BTC halving cycles with estimated peaks
This alternative view of the BTC halving cycles contains estimated peaks and lows. This view may be easier to see. Please let me know if you have any questions or ideas.
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The peaks seem to appear between the "green" & "blue" indicator lines on the "right" side of the center red lines.
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Everyone may want to keep an eye on this chart too:
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BTC is likely to decline over the next 12 months. However, after an estimate 2022-09-11 date, it is very likely to being increasing based off off the extended long-run historical data and trend.
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BTC is currently in the decline
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BTC & TOTAL Market Cap may double from 2021-10-31 to 2022-02-31
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BTC may remain around 63.6k within 33 days; based off of the: 30m view; EMA ribbon.
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BTC 103k by 2022-01-24 on the 3h view
BTC may see 103k by 2022-01-24. This is the 3h view; followed by a short decrease period (around 2022-02-15 or 2022-03-27 or 2022-04-20) of up to 19% after peaking.
Today is March 26, 2021 on the November 20, 2021 trend (see next two charts below).
On the chart below, BTC is measured in USDT & the "ZEC+ZEN+TRX+ETC" is measured in BTC.
2020-12-28 to 2021-12-23; View: "D". TOTAL (1,2,4) + BTCUSD + ETHUSD + ETHBTC
2020-12-28 to 2022-01-01; View: "D".
TOTAL (1,2,4) + BTCUSD + ETHUSD + ETHBTC + ETCBTC + TRXBTC + ZECBTC + ZENBTC + XLMBTC + JSTBTC + XEMBTC
BTC may see 103k by 2022-01-24. This is the 3h view; followed by a short decrease period (around 2022-02-15 or 2022-03-27 or 2022-04-20) of up to 19% after peaking.
Today is March 26, 2021 on the November 20, 2021 trend (see next two charts below).
On the chart below, BTC is measured in USDT & the "ZEC+ZEN+TRX+ETC" is measured in BTC.
2020-12-28 to 2021-12-23; View: "D". TOTAL (1,2,4) + BTCUSD + ETHUSD + ETHBTC
2020-12-28 to 2022-01-01; View: "D".
TOTAL (1,2,4) + BTCUSD + ETHUSD + ETHBTC + ETCBTC + TRXBTC + ZECBTC + ZENBTC + XLMBTC + JSTBTC + XEMBTC
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TOTAL & T5YIE (2020-01 to 2022-01)
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This may be a perfect forecast of BTC 3-hour (2021-05 to 2022-02) 103k by 2022-02-02.
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Deflation slowing BTC purchases (NOV 8th (weekly data) ); leading to a decline in BTC prices.
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BTC log 4-hour view 2021-12-15 to 2022-03-15; increase to $76k to $86k around 2022-03-15, then decrease during late March, April, & May 2022 to around $43k to $53k.
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This is a more conservative & much slower rate of increase BTC 2022 Q1, log view, daily, forecast.
2022 Q1 BTCUSD Forecast, log view, daily. $46k 2022-01-13; $56k 2022-01-16; $53k 2022-01-24; $66k 2022-02-16; $69k 2022-03-03; $53k 2022-04-04
2022 Q1 BTCUSD Forecast, log view, daily. $46k 2022-01-13; $56k 2022-01-16; $53k 2022-01-24; $66k 2022-02-16; $69k 2022-03-03; $53k 2022-04-04
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BTCUSD monthly average: 2022-01 $52666 & 2022-02 $51555
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2022-08 chart still on target
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Reminder: Diesel fuel expect to run out on 2022-11-19 in US & Europe. Perhaps, this shortage maybe felt at the diesel pumps around 2022-12-12. Check news & energy departments for updates.
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2023 Q1 & Q2 bear. Q3 (flat) & Q4 slightly bull. mostly as recession risks increase along with WW3/WW4 activities.
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Still on a relatively flat, then downward trend:
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Roughly $25,555 could be next peak, before next dip.
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$24,666.66 then decline for 2023-02
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BTC may find bottom by 2023-06-06, after there is more historical data available.
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BTC may find bottom by 2023-06-06 (daily) (2022-01 to 2024-01):
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BTC repeating trend of 2022-07 & 2022-08 (possible double bottom or "longer flatter bottom", before the steady rise to the estimated peak of 2025-01):
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BTC may stop declining before 2023-12.
BTC weekly 2022-03 to 2023-08
BTC weekly chart from 2022-03 to 2023-08 reflects a $36666.66 to $15666.66 zone for 2023-04 (see green dashed-line). However, the strongest resistance zones, based off of today's historical data (on 2023-02-28), reflect a $32666.66 to $15666.66 zone for 2023-08-28 (see pink dashed-line).
BTC weekly 2022-03 to 2023-08
BTC weekly chart from 2022-03 to 2023-08 reflects a $36666.66 to $15666.66 zone for 2023-04 (see green dashed-line). However, the strongest resistance zones, based off of today's historical data (on 2023-02-28), reflect a $32666.66 to $15666.66 zone for 2023-08-28 (see pink dashed-line).
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Based off of 2018 to 2020 analysis compared to today, there can be an additional -20% drop from today's price to 2023-06:
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News: "Economist Harry Dent Expects Biggest Crash in Our Lifetime"
" Bitcoin may go down more like 95%, 96%. Dent expects the crypto market may crash alongside stocks, with BTC falling up to 95%-96% from its November 2021 high. "
" Bitcoin may go down more like 95%, 96%. Dent expects the crypto market may crash alongside stocks, with BTC falling up to 95%-96% from its November 2021 high. "
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2021-07 forecast still in play
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There is a very high probability that BTC will decrease significantly from 2023-8-15 to 2024-01-15. Especially in 2023-12. recession prediction = 2024-01
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recession prediction = 2024-01
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2024 Recession -35% to -50% Update:
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(click to play)
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(click to play)
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"Major Crypto Market-Wide Correction | Run For Your Life!"
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2024-01-16 Update:
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bottom should complete in the next 9.99 to 19.99 days (66.6 days before halving based off of past data). unless: there is a black swan effect from the 2024 spring offensive. also, using my idea "The hunt for BTC bottom" idea (aka magik box) with the Jan 3 update pattern; the increase should occur in the next 15 days as well.
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still in play
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$150000 to $250000 is still very possible for 2025
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BTC is expected to remain in the shake-out for up to 46 more days on or before 2024-08-08). The the rise as early as 2024-07, but more likely during 2024-08 to 2025 peak.
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New Idea: BTC shake-out until 2024-08-08, then soar for 2025-08 peak
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A Perfect Storm for Share Prices
August 2024 marks a turning point. Short-term holders will face a steeper climb to reacquire shares as corporations enter an overconsumption phase. This phase begins to ensure on-time delivery for the holiday season.
Here's why:
Production Lead Time: Companies need to finalize purchases by August 8th to allow factories 30-60 days for production, plus another 30-60 days for ocean freight (potentially extended due to container shortages). This creates a window of up to 120 days leading up to December 12th.
Consumer Demand: Consumers will likely feel the strain 30 days after August 8th, as companies ramp up production to meet holiday demand. This means higher expenses in August, followed by a need to save in September to prepare for increased spending in October and November.
Investor Opportunity:
This extended lead time creates a window for investors. Share prices are likely to see a gradual increase throughout August-November, with a potential surge in December as the window for accumulation closes. This could lead to a significant price jump in January, setting the stage for a peak in 2025.
August 2024 marks a turning point. Short-term holders will face a steeper climb to reacquire shares as corporations enter an overconsumption phase. This phase begins to ensure on-time delivery for the holiday season.
Here's why:
Production Lead Time: Companies need to finalize purchases by August 8th to allow factories 30-60 days for production, plus another 30-60 days for ocean freight (potentially extended due to container shortages). This creates a window of up to 120 days leading up to December 12th.
Consumer Demand: Consumers will likely feel the strain 30 days after August 8th, as companies ramp up production to meet holiday demand. This means higher expenses in August, followed by a need to save in September to prepare for increased spending in October and November.
Investor Opportunity:
This extended lead time creates a window for investors. Share prices are likely to see a gradual increase throughout August-November, with a potential surge in December as the window for accumulation closes. This could lead to a significant price jump in January, setting the stage for a peak in 2025.
