WHAT IF history repeats into the next halving?

20 lis 2020

Let's say we do hit the all-time high around Oct of 2021 AND we had a bear cycle again.

IF the bear cycle lasts as long as the previous (868d) that would put us exactly into the next halving.
AND let's also add in the runup to 14k: we bottom'd in 364d post ATH, then in 196d, following, launched into the mid.fib level (50%).
THEN we'll repeat the sideways trend and into the parabolic move towards the next ATH.
THIS is based on the stats post-halving of 2016.

Price Action according to the "WHAT IF":
1. Top out at 134k (10/11/2021)
2. Bottom out at 44k (10/10/2022)
3. Attempt to moon and gets rejected @ 128k (4/24/2023)
4. Swing low into the bottom fib.trend line creeping uptrend anywhere from (lowball) 80k covering price range up to 400k (4/25/2024 to 6/9/2025)
5. Parabolic move breaching 400k into next ATH @ 732k (8/11/2025)

As they say: The Trend IS your FRIEND

PREVIOUS IDEA: tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ hHtyweAo-IF-History-Repeats-itself/

In the end, this is still only a hypothesis based on historical data on previous trend; the true results WILL differ.

11 gru 2020

Uwaga

UPDATE:
IF Bitcoin replays the post halving from 2016, the price should start to drop towards the price point of the bottom log growth fib line and the purple line -- 30%-40% drop; also noted by the ylw hor. arrow (38bars). And, after that we should reach the 50% log growth fib lin (29bars). Once, we pass that point it should roughly take 9 bars to reach the all time high @ 134k USD. After that, we'll experience a blow off top and dive again for the next 52bars before climbing up again causing another parabolic move to the upside after hitting bottom log growth fib line.