Don't fall for all those clickbaits, here is why...

9 lip 2022

Fundamentals

Most of you like myself started putting attention on markets, be it crypto and/or conventional ones during a time of steady economic growth and relative stability.
These fundamentals have changed, and it takes years for them to recover. There is a plethora of events and developments which counteract such a recovery.
Following incomplete list tries to outline those I am aware of:

• Corona, which is far from being over
  
• The global supply chain is congested
  
• The great resignation
  
• Increasing tensions between the West and China
  
• The Russian incursion
  
• The inability of central banks to rise interest rates to a level which would counter inflation
  
• Global debt crisis (this is why central banks are cornered concerning the previous point)
  
• The housing market is extremely overheated
  
• Climate change
  
• Energy crisis in Europe
  

Crypto is and never was independent from the rest of the economy.
Ask yourself a few questions:
Would you accept your full wage in Bitcoin or Ethereum?
Are you regularly shopping groceries and pay in crypto?
Have you encountered projects or third party software in your work life that utilizes or is based on blockchain?
Have you stopped needing a bank account?
Is proof of stake a decentral concept?
Is it still the democratic movement it was thought of in the beginning?

In over a decade this technology has not managed to get a foothold in any frequently used product or service. (I refer to something using the technology, but without being apparent to the user)

Technical Analysis

We can see a major resistance has been broken.
The first time this happened, was when Corona broke out.
If you look at the two, they are fundamentally different. While the first one fell and recovered very steeply, the current shows a whole different structure without any sign of impeding recovery.
So what is happening at the moment is a singular event in the history of Bitcoin.
The price action starts forming a bearish divergence, if compared to RSI.
It forms a bearish flag which targets ~13k

There is also the scenario of a relieve rally, breaking out of the channel and going up to 30k. But trading this is very risky.

Trade safe

Nik