Diagonal expansion or downtrend impulse? or WXY something?
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Back after some busy days. So, he 5th downtrend wave was shortened; so was the 3rd uptrend wave after. What is going to happen now?
Possibly the 12345 downtrend wave was in fact an ABC pattern and now we are in a XYZ thing going sideways and building a range; but I think it's less likely, so I didn't draw that.
More likely would be a diagonal expansion (green scenario) where wave 4 would slightly enter the wave 1 territory (yes, it happens often in crypto and it's allowed in diagonal expansion, even Wikipedia will show you that :) ); in this case we start wave 5 but not going higher than $8700. We are still in the uptrend channel so this is very likely. After that we should have a correction (in orange, ABC kind) and go down to $7600 or a little lower, and retry bullish reversal from there.
Or, maybe a little less likely, but still very possible, the 12345 uptrend wave was in fact a ABC correction in the bearish downtrend. In this case, what we are doing now is not the wave 4, but will continue as wave 1 of a downtrend impulse wave pattern (12345 in red). If it's true, we may go to $7200 or even lower!
Anyway, in crypto anything is possible so take care. I think for now it's still risky to trade, uptrend waves get often shortened, and you can only get small percentage profit. I would rather stay in fiat until we are sure we've had a bottom.
Possibly the 12345 downtrend wave was in fact an ABC pattern and now we are in a XYZ thing going sideways and building a range; but I think it's less likely, so I didn't draw that.
More likely would be a diagonal expansion (green scenario) where wave 4 would slightly enter the wave 1 territory (yes, it happens often in crypto and it's allowed in diagonal expansion, even Wikipedia will show you that :) ); in this case we start wave 5 but not going higher than $8700. We are still in the uptrend channel so this is very likely. After that we should have a correction (in orange, ABC kind) and go down to $7600 or a little lower, and retry bullish reversal from there.
Or, maybe a little less likely, but still very possible, the 12345 uptrend wave was in fact a ABC correction in the bearish downtrend. In this case, what we are doing now is not the wave 4, but will continue as wave 1 of a downtrend impulse wave pattern (12345 in red). If it's true, we may go to $7200 or even lower!
Anyway, in crypto anything is possible so take care. I think for now it's still risky to trade, uptrend waves get often shortened, and you can only get small percentage profit. I would rather stay in fiat until we are sure we've had a bottom.
Uwaga
Not very much changed on my "down" scenario. Waves 1 and 3 retraced at the good circles; only they were a little less sloppy. So the final target of wave 5 might be a little higher, around $7500-7600Uwaga
Wave 4 retraced much lower than I've been expecting, near $7900!Take care, wave 5 might go lower, to $7200, or as low as $6600-6800 to try double bottom before bounce! Long can be an option, but only if this red support line holds; very unlikly IMO, even if RSI is oversold.
Uwaga
We might have found a bottom here. I think wave 5 has ended at $7450. However I't wait to see if $7582 red line does not confirm as resistance now. Otherwise, this just ended 12345 impulse might be only the first wave of a bigger downtrend pattern. If it's true, there will be a long time to wait...Uwaga
It's a really crucial moment! We might start a new uptrend wave cycle if we cross the $7582 resistance (green arrow), or we might be doing an extended wave 5 following the orange subwaves. We're very soon going to find out.Uwaga
The chart didn't copy :D here it is:Uwaga
The $7582 resistance DID hold. We are going down in extended wave 5, despite the RSI very low. The wave may be shortened at any time, maybe violently; but there's no guarantee so far. Even a crashdown is possible.Uwaga
Good morning everyone!No, actually the resistance did not hold and it might have turned into support. That means the 5th wave has really ended at $7400. However we lack of bullish volume right now, and we are at 0.786 Fib level of the downtrend pattern. We went mostly sideways with zigzag waves, kinda trying to build an ascending triangle which didn't quite break up. Careful, this might turn into an ascending wedge or even bear flag.
Technically, in order to buy we would need a clear break up, even if bull cross is trying to draw on the MACD.
Uwaga
So it was just a minor impulse pattern, part of a bigger pattern. We've had a corrective minor abc up to 0.786 fib level of the initial impulse, and now we retraced down again. The big question remains, how deep will we go?We've just had bigger waves 1 and 2; the third wave is at least as long as 1 - that could mean $6800. What after? It's pretty much unlikely to have an ABC pattern, that should be only corrective, or as I see we're going too low for that. So we either are in a crash market, or we are doing a diagonal expansion and there are yet 3 waves left, but we won't go much lower than the 3rd. Anyway, the big circles of the first big wave were announcing it, as you can see...
Uwaga
We had a temptative of trend reversal started with a "morning star pattern", but then something happened. A structure that some traders confounded with a bull flag was formed; actually it was a pole followed by an ascending wedge. In a bull flag the wedge should be descending. Magic was calling once this pattern as "inverted bull flag"; there are no references about such pattern anywhere, but it evolves most of the times in a fall by the same order of magnitude as the pole height. This is what also happened now.Concerning the trend, I think we are only retracing wave 4 of a big 12345 impulse pattern down, as my initial prediction was. But lost in details, I thought the subwaves pattern was the big one; oh well, no. The 5th wave, if it's not extended, should go to $6600. Otherwise it can become nasty. We have 3 big supports to hold: the grey 2017 uptrend line now at $6800, the $6000 double bottom from February, and the very old uptrend line which is now at about $4500. The last one is our destination if everything fails; too big retracement to shorten the 5th wave at $7200 IMO.
Uwaga
The fight is now at the green recent dips uptrend line. We might rebound several times. I don't exclude the possibility to go even up to $7900 resistance line and retrace there; this is what I've actually expected, a longer wave 4. I was even surprised that the $7582 resistance holds. But since wave 3 went to $7200 already, the target's still lower than $6900.Uwaga
We stay above the green uptrend line for now, even bounced a little bit. We are going mostly sideways, following the circles, so I think wave 4 has not ended yet, in fact. It seems that a small bull flag is forming on the 2h chart, and we might follow the circles up to $7900, but there are circle interferences and bulls don't seem to cross them easily. However a hidden bullish divergence (or convergence as some say) has been formed on the RSI and CCI on most time frames lower than daily, likely to remind that we are still in a corrective wave. If bulls cannot make it to $7900, we are likely to form an extended wave 5 after, and go down to $6400 or lower; otherwise $6800 will be the target.Uwaga
I suppose we've ended the 5th wave earlier today; we have at least a mid term bullish reversal. However the wave patterns are not clear and we might be just building a range and go mostly sideways. If we don't go clearly above $7600 this is probably the case. An ABC correction is also not excluded; let'ssee if the waves reveal anything in the end.
Uwaga
Here is the update with new chart!I'll be offline for a few days now.
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