BitcoinZaktualizowano Bitcoin Wedge & H&S vs Wedge, double target 9900, than 6K again?
I was trying to post 6 hours ago, but i kept getting an error. I posted it as an update in my previous analysis. Here it is again:
Bitcoin has been go higher slowly, steady and controlled, just like we did when we broke the 9K a month ago. Since i went long around 7400 and got out at 7970 (i was waiting for a bull flag to jump in at 7800/7700 again but i missed it), i have been waiting for 2 things to enter a normal trade. That is to go long if price would drop towards the 7800/8000 or to build up a big short position again if we get between 9000/10000.
Now we clearly have not made a correction of this rally to 7800 so i have been waiting patiently for my entry points (with the exception of a few small trades). Thing is, i am a bit confused about what to do in the meantime, there are just many mixed signals. We have that wedge i showed you a few days ago which predicted a relief rally. The target of this wedge is 9800/9900. But a day ago i thought we would go towards 9200/9400 max, not reaching it's target and therefore showing a big sign of weakness. But the bulls have created an inverse H&S (ugly one but still) with the same target as the descending wedge.
Now, we have created a new rising wedge. But this same wedge is also the inverse H&S. About this rising wedge i have posted an educational analysis, please read that one first to understand it a little bit better.
That purple support line is the neckline of the inverse H&S. This should be a very strong support level now (8600/8700). I really can't give an good trade now, what i can say is this, if i was still long now, i would close half my position here at 8950 and i would leave the rest with a stop around 8400/8500 with the possibility we go towards the 9800.
In my previous analysis i opened a small short position at 8965, for a small trade. I don't have a target yet, but i have a stop around 9200. As you can see i drew 3 possibilities.
-The green one is the most boring one and the less likely to happen, that is going sideways between 8400ish and 9200ish and slowly going higher (these levels are based on a pure
guess)
-The red one is the strongest one, saying we will stay above the purple neckline and go to the 9900 within a few days. This one has the biggest chance
-The purple one is the one i want to happen, getting another chance to go long and to close above the 9000 and to start to build up a big short position in the higher 9K's
My bigger picture plan is still the same since i got out in the high 7K's with my short position from 9800. I still expect 6K and most probably even 4K prices.
For now the market is still looking very strong, looks like it is trying to make another 200 point jump, if it does that i will add again around 9100. Still a small position! To give you perspective, If i could add at 9100, my total is still only 10% of what i would do if i am able to go short around 9800 again.
For the ones on the sideline, if you make a trade, keep it very small but it's probably even better to wait for a better entry point!
If you find this interesting, read some of my previous analysis, where i explain all my thoughts and trades
Bitcoin has been go higher slowly, steady and controlled, just like we did when we broke the 9K a month ago. Since i went long around 7400 and got out at 7970 (i was waiting for a bull flag to jump in at 7800/7700 again but i missed it), i have been waiting for 2 things to enter a normal trade. That is to go long if price would drop towards the 7800/8000 or to build up a big short position again if we get between 9000/10000.
Now we clearly have not made a correction of this rally to 7800 so i have been waiting patiently for my entry points (with the exception of a few small trades). Thing is, i am a bit confused about what to do in the meantime, there are just many mixed signals. We have that wedge i showed you a few days ago which predicted a relief rally. The target of this wedge is 9800/9900. But a day ago i thought we would go towards 9200/9400 max, not reaching it's target and therefore showing a big sign of weakness. But the bulls have created an inverse H&S (ugly one but still) with the same target as the descending wedge.
Now, we have created a new rising wedge. But this same wedge is also the inverse H&S. About this rising wedge i have posted an educational analysis, please read that one first to understand it a little bit better.
That purple support line is the neckline of the inverse H&S. This should be a very strong support level now (8600/8700). I really can't give an good trade now, what i can say is this, if i was still long now, i would close half my position here at 8950 and i would leave the rest with a stop around 8400/8500 with the possibility we go towards the 9800.
In my previous analysis i opened a small short position at 8965, for a small trade. I don't have a target yet, but i have a stop around 9200. As you can see i drew 3 possibilities.
-The green one is the most boring one and the less likely to happen, that is going sideways between 8400ish and 9200ish and slowly going higher (these levels are based on a pure
guess)
-The red one is the strongest one, saying we will stay above the purple neckline and go to the 9900 within a few days. This one has the biggest chance
-The purple one is the one i want to happen, getting another chance to go long and to close above the 9000 and to start to build up a big short position in the higher 9K's
My bigger picture plan is still the same since i got out in the high 7K's with my short position from 9800. I still expect 6K and most probably even 4K prices.
For now the market is still looking very strong, looks like it is trying to make another 200 point jump, if it does that i will add again around 9100. Still a small position! To give you perspective, If i could add at 9100, my total is still only 10% of what i would do if i am able to go short around 9800 again.
For the ones on the sideline, if you make a trade, keep it very small but it's probably even better to wait for a better entry point!
If you find this interesting, read some of my previous analysis, where i explain all my thoughts and trades
Uwaga
I had a few updates after posting this, maybe you should read that first. Anyway, i am still waiting to go short again if we drop below that support line. The support line is certainly legit, the resistance line is still slightly a question mark on where to place it exactly. Volume is dropping slightly now, which is indicating that it's just a matter of time before we drop out out of this wedge. Normally we should not get above the high anymore, anything it still possible though
Uwaga
I wont be able to say when i open my short position again. I will be out later onUwaga
All exchanges show slightly different support lines. I just went short and i could be adding if we make a successful retracement Uwaga
Nobody knows what's going on exactly with Tehter of course, but is it not funny, how they describe that the Mt. Gox. bitcoins tht got sold, worth about $400 million may have caused the market to crash from 20K to 6K, but the amounts we see from Tehter, which are much more are almost being ignored :)newsbtc.com/2018/03/21/tether-issues-another-300m-bitcoin-price-reverses-course/
Uwaga
Moment of truth is near guys. It's setting up another small inverse H&S, but the bigger picture says volume is dropping slightly and that we will drop out the wedgeUwaga
We are now at that purple stage we were beginning of this month. BUT they are not exactly the same of course. The thing i am afraid of, even if we drop out, the bulls will catch the fall, just like they did a few weeks ago at that same stage. I would rather not see it getting above the 9150/9200 from here. that it stays below that blue curved line. My positions are in (not the big position!!) and now i feel comfortable doing so. Risk reward is much better here Uwaga
I am out half a day, so i can't give updates. Maybe with my mobile if i get the chanceUwaga
It's not a real breakout yet, but it's almost clear they don't want to drop. I thought they would not be able to push through this necklineUwaga
Finally, first real sign of weakness, that fake brake out in combination with this drop, is almost a confirmation that the high for now is set! BUT be aware, look back at a previous update, those 2 purple circles, now and few weeks ago, were we also dropped out of the wedge, but Bulls/manipulation or whatever just stopped it from dropping. So conservative trader could close half around here or around 8750. For the possibility they will do the same as than. 8700 is a very VERY strong support, so choose wisely what to do if you are short. The H&S is clearly there, but is does not have 100% meaning to me, because the h&s is also the wedge.
Uwaga
8700=8650/8550Uwaga
For the ones who love and want to keep me motivated and my wife happy :)Only if you want to guys, if you feel i am making you a better trader or you making winning trades because of me. I am putting allot of time and energy in here, so it's not that i am holding out my hand for doing nothing
BTC: 1LNkJ5CiXBFsm5U23aUcNXvDzcqiCfYwVx
ETH: 0x0cc156b3c041de85437464fe4379377fdd387d02
LTC: LVkN32eCLDdPAVUgVikCYwg1EhP6iDjyfU
Uwaga
The 1 min chart, bulls are trying to catch the drop, making an attempt to create a small inverse H&S. My guess is, it will fail. I do want to see the price stay below the 9050Uwaga
The 15m chart, here we see a bigger picture.Here we see the drop out of the wedge. The false break out of that small inverse H&S, or the bigger triangle, is a confirmation for the break of the wedge. Buying power fell short there!. Second confirmation, the volume increased allot when it dropped out. Showing long positions taking profit before it's to late and of course some people who opened a short position.
The target of this small H&S is aorund 9050/9100. IF we break out i would prefer to see a max price of around 9000, confirming buyers falling short and we will see an acceleration down. Ideally it wont be able to break the neckline around 8930, showing even more short term weakness.
Uwaga
Where are the likes people, where is the love :(Uwaga
The small H&S seems to be failing, low volume when it broke outUwaga
Still only delaying the next drop. Looks like a bear flag/triangle, they could break upwards of course, but chances are 80% here that we drop. Volume has also dropped in this small consolidation Uwaga
We are now at the purple area, around the 11.500 high were we dropped the first time. They could just do the same here again. I knew from that day, price just should have dropped 200 points more, few patterns suggesting that, but it just did not drop AND it made that last small bull trap at 11.700Uwaga
The longer it takes for it to drop out of that triangle/flag, the less reliable the pattern getsUwaga
Startting to look good. This green area could work as a support. A few hours earlier we could see buyers getting in the market there a few times. If we drop below it, we should to the purple support
Uwaga
I fell a sleep guys on the couch, i was exhausted it seems.Glad the market didn't do anything strange.Anyway the market got pushed higher again by those buyers probably that entered the market around that green area!
And it's the same thing we saw around the 11K levels, a wedge that goes to the max of the hight, dropping out but not falling and getting back up again. As we can see now, it's making a bull flag, suggesting that we go higher.
If we have a identical pattern as a few weeks ago, than we should see a higher high from here. 9300/9400 and than make a drop. But the conflicting thing is, it would mean that this is the high already and we just go down from here.
Thats way to early to tell of course. For now, my stop is around my entry level of 9050, actually the breakout of this bull flag. I won't be fighting the direction the market want's to take of course. But if we go higher and i start to see some hesitation again than i will start to build up a short position. Probably around the 9300/9400
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Informacje i publikacje przygotowane przez TradingView lub jego użytkowników, prezentowane na tej stronie, nie stanowią rekomendacji ani porad handlowych, inwestycyjnych i finansowych i nie powinny być w ten sposób traktowane ani wykorzystywane. Więcej informacji na ten temat znajdziesz w naszym Regulaminie.