Bullish 3 Drive reversal pattern taking us further down?
Zaktualizowano
Caveat, I am not great at this but i love throwing numbers at the wall and hoping a bullseye appears behind them later. At least I admit that :)
TLDR;
51 day periods in downward price movements, only 19 days into a 51 day period. Consolidation has happened at that 18 day point in each cycle so far.
Price should bottom in about a month. My pick for bottom 5150-5185 but it could go lower without invalidating the pattern, but we are going to at least 5200. The absolute lowest before this pattern is invalid will be 4000-4100
Detail:
So, i had seen taylor.renny post a chart showing the 51 days between each high and when price turned back up for the next move up. So I had a closer look and noticed that there was also a little pullback or consolidation at exactly the 18 day point of each 51 day period so far. This 51 day period that we are in now, if it is another 51 day period was day 18 yesterday (AU time) when the market rallied.
I have also drawn out what is a very clean Bullish 3 Drive Pattern in harmonic pattern. The 51 day period finishes on September 13 but the end of the periods mark the confirmed reversal, not bottom. This pattern completes and bottoms a bit earlier, probably September 11 (ancient astronaut theorists.... say yes. conspiracy nuts can have this one) and bottom should be 5150-5185 (5183.5) (yeh why not go precise, if it hits it will be fun, if it doesn't, nothing new haha). I am struggling to find any concrete targets for the completion of such a pattern however .61 and .78 are what are suggested in the only reliable resource I found that referenced targets, the "Better know an Indicator" series by Youtube sensation IAmSatoshi. This gives us targets of 8726 and 9700. Probably around 4 and 6 weeks after bottom. That is if we follow roughly the same gradient in that price movement as we have done so far in this pattern, meaning around the 13th and 25th of October.
The alternative that sees us go to 4000-4100 is not as neatly measured and not as "harmonic""
TLDR;
51 day periods in downward price movements, only 19 days into a 51 day period. Consolidation has happened at that 18 day point in each cycle so far.
Price should bottom in about a month. My pick for bottom 5150-5185 but it could go lower without invalidating the pattern, but we are going to at least 5200. The absolute lowest before this pattern is invalid will be 4000-4100
Detail:
So, i had seen taylor.renny post a chart showing the 51 days between each high and when price turned back up for the next move up. So I had a closer look and noticed that there was also a little pullback or consolidation at exactly the 18 day point of each 51 day period so far. This 51 day period that we are in now, if it is another 51 day period was day 18 yesterday (AU time) when the market rallied.
I have also drawn out what is a very clean Bullish 3 Drive Pattern in harmonic pattern. The 51 day period finishes on September 13 but the end of the periods mark the confirmed reversal, not bottom. This pattern completes and bottoms a bit earlier, probably September 11 (ancient astronaut theorists.... say yes. conspiracy nuts can have this one) and bottom should be 5150-5185 (5183.5) (yeh why not go precise, if it hits it will be fun, if it doesn't, nothing new haha). I am struggling to find any concrete targets for the completion of such a pattern however .61 and .78 are what are suggested in the only reliable resource I found that referenced targets, the "Better know an Indicator" series by Youtube sensation IAmSatoshi. This gives us targets of 8726 and 9700. Probably around 4 and 6 weeks after bottom. That is if we follow roughly the same gradient in that price movement as we have done so far in this pattern, meaning around the 13th and 25th of October.
The alternative that sees us go to 4000-4100 is not as neatly measured and not as "harmonic""
Uwaga
Forgot to comment on the pink and green barpatterns attached to the last 33 days of the period. They are form their colors respective box on the chart and are bar patterns of the final 33n days in their 51 day periods, simply showing how this could end if a fractal was at play.Uwaga
i like green, it finishes perfectly with it's low being 2 days before the end of the period and lining up in an orderly manner with the 1.22 of the previous drive down. Meaning September 11 Ancient Aliens win.Uwaga
Interesting, just noticed as well as 51 days per down movement we have been having 26 days per upward movement (first 26 isn't obvious because it overlaps the 2nd 51 day top to recovery period. because it double topped. So basically next uptrend if we are still going up after 27 we should rejoice :)
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