#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: The drawn bull gap is now tested the third time in 2 months and at some point it will break but betting on breakouts in trading ranges is a losing strategy. R:R is on the bull side until bears get a daily close below 52400. Also a clear bear trend line, so look for weakness if we get a pullback to it.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bears finally broke below the erratic zone and we are back below 55000. So far, every time we got here, bulls refused to let the market get a daily close below 53900 and as of now it’s still the case. That means that bulls are defending the bull gap to 52400 with passion and until that changes, we are at the lows of the trading range that has been going on for 7 months now. Market is technically making lower highs and lower lows, so we are in a bear trend but it’s weak. Selling below 55000 was a bad trade so far and there is no reason to expect it to be different this time.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 49000 - 60000
bull case: Bulls who bought 55000 on the previous 2 tries made money and I expect them to continue to do so. If we have a daily close below 52400, many bulls will probably give up on that notion but for now it’s support. Bulls need to get back above the daily ema above 58000.
Invalidation is a daily close below 52400.
bear case: Bears printed big consecutive bear bars below 57000 and want a retest of 49111. They desperately need a daily close below the bull gap to close it. We are currently in a very broad bear channel and a smaller one for 2 weeks. Bears are in control as long as they stay inside the smaller bear channel and below 57000.
Invalidation is above 57000.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral and not touching this until a clear strong breakout with follow through.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 58600 and now we are at 54300. Market continued to be neutral on Monday and Tuesday, so outlook last Sunday was good.
short term: Neutral. Market is flat since late Friday. I want to short this but only near the bear channel line and below 57000.
medium-long term: If bears can close the bull gap for good, we could see 40000 this year. If not, more likely we will see 65000+ again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added currently valid bear trend lines, the bear channel and a potential 5-wave series.
tl;dr
bitcoin: The drawn bull gap is now tested the third time in 2 months and at some point it will break but betting on breakouts in trading ranges is a losing strategy. R:R is on the bull side until bears get a daily close below 52400. Also a clear bear trend line, so look for weakness if we get a pullback to it.
Quote from last week:
comment: Second atrocious outlook in a row. Will do my best to not make it a third one. Staying away from this for now. Last week we closed at the highs, which was a breakout and past week we are on our way closing at the lows and even went below last weeks low. Market has absolutely no idea where it wants to go. Erratic price action with a absolutely flat weekly ema. 56000 - 64000 is a dead zone to me.
comment: Bears finally broke below the erratic zone and we are back below 55000. So far, every time we got here, bulls refused to let the market get a daily close below 53900 and as of now it’s still the case. That means that bulls are defending the bull gap to 52400 with passion and until that changes, we are at the lows of the trading range that has been going on for 7 months now. Market is technically making lower highs and lower lows, so we are in a bear trend but it’s weak. Selling below 55000 was a bad trade so far and there is no reason to expect it to be different this time.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 49000 - 60000
bull case: Bulls who bought 55000 on the previous 2 tries made money and I expect them to continue to do so. If we have a daily close below 52400, many bulls will probably give up on that notion but for now it’s support. Bulls need to get back above the daily ema above 58000.
Invalidation is a daily close below 52400.
bear case: Bears printed big consecutive bear bars below 57000 and want a retest of 49111. They desperately need a daily close below the bull gap to close it. We are currently in a very broad bear channel and a smaller one for 2 weeks. Bears are in control as long as they stay inside the smaller bear channel and below 57000.
Invalidation is above 57000.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral and not touching this until a clear strong breakout with follow through.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 58600 and now we are at 54300. Market continued to be neutral on Monday and Tuesday, so outlook last Sunday was good.
short term: Neutral. Market is flat since late Friday. I want to short this but only near the bear channel line and below 57000.
medium-long term: If bears can close the bull gap for good, we could see 40000 this year. If not, more likely we will see 65000+ again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added currently valid bear trend lines, the bear channel and a potential 5-wave series.
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