SHORT TERM TRADE: SHORT BTC // LONG ETH

27 lis

SHORT TERM TRADE: SHORT BTC
Detailed Analysis and Rationale:

1. Bitcoin (BTC) Breakdown Analysis:

Key Resistance and Rejection Zone:
BTC has rejected the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($95,807) and the broken ascending trendline, now acting as resistance.
Multiple rejections (red arrows) confirm strong selling pressure near this zone, with the invalidation level clearly marked at $96,200 ("SHORT INVALID ABOVE").
Breakdown Confirmation:
The clean break of the ascending trendline, followed by a retest and rejection, confirms bearish momentum.
Price action has failed to hold above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating further downside potential.
Bearish Volume Divergence:
Volume has increased on sell-offs and decreased during retracements, signaling strong bearish participation and weak buyer recovery.
Green Zone Target:
The green box and green line mark a significant demand zone and prior accumulation range, where BTC is likely to see a reaction. This zone aligns with deeper Fibonacci extensions, making it a logical area for targets.
Price Targets (Aligned with the Chart):

Target 1: $94,500
This level aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and a horizontal support zone visible on the chart.
A minor bounce may occur here due to its role as an interim support.
Target 2: $93,200
This level corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and lies just above the green box. It represents the first major support where BTC could slow its descent.
Target 3: $92,000 (Top of Green Box)
The upper boundary of the green box and the green line serve as critical demand zones. This level has acted as a significant support in past corrections.
Target 4: $89,000–$89,500 (Middle of Green Box)
The -27% Fibonacci extension falls in the middle of the green box, making this a high-probability area for price to test. This zone also aligns with prior consolidation and high-volume nodes.
Final Target: $84,000 (Bottom of Green Box)
This level marks the lower boundary of the green box and aligns with a previous key support area. It is the maximum downside target for this short setup in the current time frame.
Stop-Loss Placement:

Stop Loss: $96,200
Placed above the rejection zone and key Fibonacci level to account for volatility without invalidating the trade.
Dynamic Stop Adjustments:
After hitting the first target at $94,500, move the stop-loss to breakeven at $95,750.
Trail stops as further targets are hit to secure profits.
Trade Execution Plan:

Entry: $95,750–$95,800
Enter short after confirming rejection from the resistance zone and broken trendline.
Exit Strategy:
Take partial profits at $94,500, $93,200, and $92,000.
Consider exiting 50% of the position in the middle of the green box ($89,500) and the remaining 50% at $84,000.
Risk Management:

Position Sizing:
Allocate no more than 2% of total capital to this trade to control risk exposure.
Use a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 1:3 to justify the trade.
Time Frame:
The trade is expected to play out over the next 12–24 hours, given the momentum and depth of the targets.
Key Observations (Chart-Based):

Green Box Significance:
The green box represents a significant accumulation zone, where BTC has historically found support.
High-volume nodes within this range make it a high-probability area for price to react and consolidate.
Trend Continuation Likelihood:
Given the bearish structure and volume dynamics, BTC is likely to continue its descent into the green box unless there’s a significant shift in market sentiment.
Contingency Plan:

Invalidation Level:
If BTC breaks above $96,200 with strong momentum, exit the trade immediately as the bearish setup would be invalidated.
Monitoring the Green Box:
Watch price action within the green box for signs of accumulation or reversal. If strong bullish signals emerge, consider closing the short position early.