이번 사이클의 마지막 상승 그리고 다음 사이클의 바닥

Od MacroTradingE

Zaktualizowano

기록

Uwaga

80-85% correction from the top

Uwaga

Uwaga

this could be the reason we had passive sells to build a liquidity for next cycle bottom.

Uwaga

Market retraced with panic sell with Media cover (Elon musk)
Weak hands sold spot btc while CO gives pressure on derivatives market.
Demand purely built by market participants.

Uwaga

Note

if CO sold spots for distribution it was not the bottom but very unlikely.
i would like to believe this range as local bottom. likely "39k (ugly wick down) - 41k" will hold and resume next rally.

Uwaga

note

more volume toward support = good = supply absorption
more volume toward resistance = bad = proof of supply on sale

Uwaga

note

shorts are offside here as time goes by.
what if spoofing below 40k then shoot up to 50-52k range
then pull back to 46-48k range again for shake out?

Uwaga

would like to see strong close on daily today to confirm a "spring"

Uwaga

also to make sure, we always need a liquidation event before bounce up.
keep it mind "ugly wick" down.

Uwaga

this is getting ridiculous, there is no big liquidation, only new long position loading on market. doesn't look good.

Uwaga

daily strong close should be above 43k

Uwaga

저는 모든 포지션을 청산하고 숏 헷징에 들어갑니다.
안좋은 데이터가 나왔네요.

Zlecenie zamknięto ręcznie

Uwaga

just sayin..
we had 75% pullback on first bull market.. just sayin...
so im more focused to protect my capital rather going long without many conviction.

Uwaga

what if?

Uwaga

margin bounce... i do no trust.. capitulation on progress..

Uwaga

some massive demand on coinbase.
will long on next dip.

Uwaga

im laddering my buy orders 19k - 23k
no kidding ;)

Uwaga

There is still not enough balance on volume/delta for buyers. Its a traders bounce, drawing bullish chart. CO will dump on this longs soonish..

Uwaga

market is not dead.. lots of fud news about USDT,CHINA and more..
remember it always coming out when market is going down.
its just a pullback to grab more liquidity to rise higher in near future.
protect your capital, do not fomo.

there is no real demand that meet supply yet.

Uwaga

derivatives pushing price up with some fomo thru media (twitter).
local bottom is pretty close, but not yet.
wait spot start to push price.
i bet around 25-27k ish prob.

liquidity hund at first sell off,
now market will test the real demand of market soon.

Uwaga

market meeting mean reversion. green week coming.

Transakcja zamknięta: osiągnięto wyznaczony cel

im closing my short here.

Uwaga

Other bad data just came in.. im not closing my short here.. 24k is in sight

Uwaga

derivatives bounce. we will head lower soon, prob 37max for today.

Uwaga

another liquidity setup.. be careful my friends.

Uwaga

Transakcja zamknięta: osiągnięto wyznaczony cel

Exit liquidity on ETH.. dont really like this
Cvd spot futs divergence.

Uwaga

strength is back. will long on next pull back

Uwaga

buy zone, if we do not get bad delta

Uwaga

hate to sayin it, it does looks like retest of ice

Uwaga

if you want to build a position, this box gives u entry or stop.

Uwaga

closed short here 35.2
accumulating here to 33k

Uwaga

i got all my long orders filled.
42k next

Uwaga

reduced half of position, market need bit more time.

Uwaga

accumulating

Uwaga

i bought everything i wanted. and market is ready to bounce up hard.

Uwaga

closing margin long here. holding spots.

Uwaga

short covering rally.

Uwaga

still there is no evidence of real demand,
lots of margin longs opening.

thinking last capitulation still intact.

Uwaga

drop, buy the dip, shoot up on wknd.

Uwaga

nothing changed, no real demand in market (spot).
only margin longers, eating fundings , trapping more longers.
CO will take this whole liquidtiy to build new demand.
my long scaled 31-33k , thought wknd pump, but seems most likely wknd dump and scoop up for shoot up next week.

Uwaga

weird market balance. cancer my long orders.
will re evaluate when i see btd.

Uwaga

lots of engineering on liquidity. not sayin it will happen, but im stick in to hedge short rather than catching a bottom for long.

Uwaga

25k- 32k big liquidity pool.

Uwaga

note : there will be an opportunity if y don't caught on counter market.

Uwaga

HTF fib

Uwaga

expected "liquidation" event . but seems CO started buyin on this range.
prob one more sweep low 30k then go time?

Uwaga

Volume expands, Spread widen, Weak closes = LPSY

Uwaga

out of all position , hedged short

Uwaga

what if

Uwaga

note

Remember history repeats.. us gov baned gold. Rich people hoarded and didnt sell, the poor complied.. Few years later it was legal again and gold rocked up.
Will btc be the next gold ban?

Uwaga

first time we got volume on spot,
binance.

still seems its exit liquidity. not ape in.

Uwaga

no one will acknowledge that we are in a short term bear market until the bear market is over then the bull market starts and they will say we are still in a bear.

Uwaga

stonks , DXY , bonds all going up = nature need a heal

Uwaga

note

bear market doesn't mean only down down down.
its about "accumulation" or "distribution" in any timeframe.

Uwaga

re distribution example

Uwaga

again, im not tryin to be bear or hero.
i don't need a friend, but i like someone who can share thoughts to improve both.

Trading is a process of verifying facts through indicators studied in history and accumulated logic

Uwaga

ltf distribution on going but its being absorbed in tight range.

Uwaga

if there is a demand that can cover supply, it could bounce again and meet another supply above.

Uwaga

34 - 32
naked poc
with alot of vol

Uwaga

no rush here.. i don't see signs of reversal.
liquidity hunting it seems. it gets even worse on this pump while retails jump in for reliefe rally.

one good thing we have 9 on weekly.

Uwaga

not seeing much effort on this pump.

Uwaga

Bulls best hope to break 45k.
I only see liquidity engineering here on last pump.
I'm on sideline, enjoying 1-2 weeks vacation away from trading. Hedged towards downside

Zlecenie zamknięto ręcznie

Uwaga

Transakcja zamknięta: osiągnięto wyznaczony cel

Uwaga

note

Vix hits highest since May 21st.
last up 2.58 points at 20.33.

hold your breath.

Uwaga

while btc making..
nq,qqq all look like shit.

Uwaga

been negative gamma for a while
lots of inflows
distributive volume / candle.

im short hedged. coming back in july.

Uwaga

Zlecenie aktywne

bought some gold and dollor.

Uwaga

some nice buy delta coming in, prob local bottom is closer than expected.

Uwaga

under 29k is lots of liquidity , so if panic triggers, 24-26k is on table.
i assume 24k will hold and bounce back to 30keks

Uwaga

29k supported, closed hedge short, will see pullback for longs.

Uwaga

will add some longs on those pullbacks

Uwaga

daily shows we are still below ICE. so best place to open long position would be pullback after break POC

Uwaga

no reclaim 35k end of daily, this will bring more sell pressure, follow red path.

Uwaga

im longing next dip.

Uwaga

we got some demand data coming in, liquidity is building on upward.

Uwaga

Humans are greedy, greed is evil, humans are evil.
Humans are greedy, greed is evil, humans are evil.
Humans are greedy, greed is evil, humans are evil.
Humans are greedy, greed is evil, humans are evil.

Uwaga

Humans are greedy, greed is evil, humans are evil.

Uwaga

note : don't get trapped on exit liquidty.

Uwaga

bearish arguments

-going up on margin and air.
-too many longs that would be easy to kill going down
-massive seller side data is still there
-No buy side data is coming in

bullish arguments

-first buy side data was showed on 30-32k on may 19th.
-+@ buy side data is gone, don't know how it used.

Uwaga

note :

i am not biased, i just follow what i see.

will take a loss and closing my hedge if i see new buy data
or we clear break up to 41k.

Uwaga

1. Invest with confidence and focus.
2. Stop loss is not due to price changes, but when the hypothesis is wrong.
3. Look at the ocean, not the wave.
4. Control your emotions.

Uwaga

no demand data backed, another re distribution(3)

Uwaga

A series of climactic declines indicate that stopping action is taking place. The downtrend channel has been extended. Note what a long-drawn-out decline this has become. This is a markdown of major proportions. Volume and price spread bulge during the final stages of the drop as conditions become climactic. This is a classic opportunity for short sellers to cover and close out their positions. The rally from the SCLX to the BCLX is about a 100% run-up. We must expect that many institutions and individuals are in a loss trap, having bought in the vicinity of the all-time high prices. Therefore, prices may retest the SCLX low and potentially go lower as these late buyers finally capitulate and sell.

A buying climax (BCLX) throws over the rising trend channel on high volume. Thereafter the declines are rapid and the rallies are labored (narrow spread and low volume). This Redistribution (#4) has the classic attributes of a normal distribution. The two LPSYs are ‘on the springboard’ and represent good places to sell short. A rapid decline to new lows follows.

Each of these Redistributions is unique. By studying these classic case studies we can accelerate our learning curve. And, most importantly, they can keep us on the right track and out of trouble.

Uwaga

bullish argument

marketcap is holding support while avg trading volume is comparable to last nov.

thought

smart money is exiting on alt, shows only volume spike happens on crash without incline trading volume on total market cap.
when alt meets resistance, that would flow in to btc and do the next thing.

Uwaga

Alt = ETH for me.

Uwaga

RE note :

i am not biased, i just follow what i see.

will take a loss and closing my hedge if i see new buy data
or we clear break up to 41k.

Uwaga

monthly

Uwaga

one asked

: there is bull div on daily. why you keep saying we going down ? die you shorter.

: indicators following price action, no more than that. find all the div in past and see if that all worked out.

ps - i am not a short as short. its a hedge based on trend i see, i have invalidation. "margin degenarate gambler"

Uwaga

seems 36k was very important point to figure things reverse.
rack of demand data , rack of buying action on spot exchanges.
mostly it all pointing we have another swipe to lower.
chop chop range, but trend seems not reversed.

Uwaga

too early to say where o/s trend forming.
but this could be supply line.

Zlecenie aktywne

stoploss set on hedge short at 37k,
weird liquidity engineering.
no data backed, but position building on derivatives seems looking for a squeeze.

Uwaga

y can call it black swan, some call it liquidity recovery.
i am not calling its same situation, but all asset market will need to take a liquidity back from the greed, set it back on healthy liquidity, not an offside.

Zlecenie aktywne

Uwaga

not sure if it can top over 40k with scam pump,
but all i see on data and volume is distribution.
we would need to see market buy back what they sold before another bull cycle.

Uwaga

if we bounce on here towards supply line, count start from 1hour oversold.
which means we can confirm distribution when it hits supply

Uwaga

note

mark down usually start with some panic buying.
nuke on late buyers.

Uwaga

entry for the swing trade could confirms on few different approach, volume analysis based on wyckoff is one of it.

Zlecenie aktywne

Uwaga

price rejected on supply line,
but hard to say that was panic buying.

Uwaga

if that was a initial reject on supply, another weakness will follow.

Uwaga

equal highs at 35k

34.2k 100x short liquidity

Uwaga

took the liquidity, supply popped on 34k ish.

Uwaga

there is still possibility it can sustain to 35k equal high, but direction bias haven't changed. no demand on spot, derivatives push.

Uwaga

new mp area, where could pingpong before next pullback.

Uwaga

not much changed, respecting supply line , oversold line for now.
expecting gap down soonish.

note

there is always 5:5 buyer,seller.

whoever calling there is too many short in the market so it will sqeeze doesn't make sense. there is liquidity on both side for sure, but doesn't mean it has to clear out before every move but some. more important to follow up is the trend where CO and people lean on to heaviliy bid or ask on.

Zlecenie zamknięto ręcznie

closed dxy n gold

Uwaga

There was no price lift off the support, then we had a gap down and out of the trading range. mark down is around corner.

Uwaga

reducing hedge, spot seems back. relief?

Uwaga

note:

b world narrative + ftx (bluffing) pushed market, oi all been reset as before pump after hit today high. now, will we see new demand kick in? or keep distributing like recent. we will soon find out, and if it grind down again, won't be same as past.

it must be kept in mind that bull and bear markets only occur and are maintained when they are justified by the law of supply and demand. Technicians could not possibly cause a major market move just by the sheer power of their buying and selling. if this were the case, technicians would all become wealthy very quickly.

Uwaga

more exposure on hedge, showing same data like june 15-16th.

Uwaga

picasso thing

MacroTradingE

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