BABA'S Divergences.!
Zaktualizowano
Nothing to add here, we have a probability of a 9% Bullish move coming soon. Using one strategy is very dangerous thing to do.!
Uwaga
If, & only if, you are bullish here on BABA then your 9% is incoming if we rhythm with such divers since ATH.!Uwaga
Seasonality by Mid-November is to take the high of late August early September's high.!Uwaga
(-20%) is seasonality "Risk" .!Uwaga
Uwaga
The count that is too good to be true ;-) .!3ed of 3ed up is to start this week, we just finished W2 of W3 of 5 wavs up.!
Uwaga
Seasonality indicator on TradingView.!Uwaga
Zoom in, 95.80 by end of November.! Or not .!Uwaga
One way too look at it if you are bullish here.!Uwaga
BABA at HKI is lagging here, today it just completed it's 5th wave down.!Uwaga
Monthly looking bullishly sharp.! But who knows how things unfold in the future.!Uwaga
If you are bearish on BABA, still need an E wave to go up = Seasonality of 9% bullish move.! or not and we go down.!Uwaga
6 Divers are holding up with all this pressure, will it hold up for an actual bullish move ? Or this is some how a Bulls "Trap" ?Uwaga
"TAIWAN REPORTS 13 CHINESE AIR FORCE PLANES IN ITS AIR DEFENCE ZONE" News outlets.! Things could might get really ugly here.!Uwaga
All these 6 Divergences will not work well with "Geopolitical" tensions. Asian stocks are down > 2% .!Uwaga
How far can we go down. One way to look at it is analyzing the RSI.Uwaga
Uwaga
The risk down for these set ups are as shown :#1 (-24%)
#2 (-32%)
Uwaga
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#1 set up:A. It took 19 Days ( 13 trading bars) to reach a bottom
B. It took 40 Day( 30 trading bars) to go back again to the same levels we started from.!
* The total for the round trip is 43 Trading Days.!
Uwaga
#2 Set up:A. It took 30 Days ( 21 trading bars) to reach a bottom
B. It took 49 Day( 32 trading bars) to go back again to the same levels we started from.!
* The total for the round trip with a retracement of 90% is 53 Trading Days & 79 Calendar days!
Uwaga
So where does this, if this is even remotely probable, lead us next if we rhythm with past and do "Break" below wave 5 on the RSI = Divergences are Bull's trap.!Uwaga
Bigger picture for #1 Set up ( If it's even remotely probable)Uwaga
#2 : So where does this, if this is even remotely probable, lead us next if we rhythm with past and do "Break" below wave 5 on the RSI = Divergences are Bull's trap.!Uwaga
Bigger picture for #2 Set up ( If it's even remotely probable)Uwaga
Depending on your count:Blue for a triangle, about to finish D and start E "Blue Box A=C)
Red for an ABC Macro, with B as a flat & finished July 31st, 2023 .!
Uwaga
The whole analysis today is about the RSI & whether it breaks 31.98 for a final 5th ,Red probability, wave down Or hold up the "Diver" for , a Blue probability, wave targeting E .!Uwaga
If our analysis is correct here, then the right LPS should not break down below left LPS .!Uwaga
As such.!77.77 Must hold for this Wycoff patter to be correct/applied here.!
Uwaga
Analyzing the "Side" movements, 2 probabilities out of many out there.!Probability # 1 Triangle ABCDE:
We have already finished A+B+C+ D (Not quite) = E is up next .!
Uwaga
Probability #2 out of many.!ABC with B as a Flat
We have finished the flat ( or almost) = Wave C is next =100ish .!
Uwaga
1/ On daily & 1/2 Day , our RSI Diver has been broken for the 10.5.2033 low ( our last low).2/ On daily, our RSI Diver is still "On" for 9.21.2023 ( The low before).! Which is the real diver that has started this bullish momentum.!
Uwaga
Going back to our 2 set ups we have analyzed earlier today, in both cases the daily RSI went down to 23 & 24 region.! With 2 sets of ABCs as such on the chart below.!Uwaga
Approaching a support area.!Uwaga
We have laied out the RSI structure for the Bears, now lets do it for the Bulls:Two set ups for the Bulls here:
Set up # 1: Divergences since ATH, which we have had 6 of them thus far with % gains as follow:
11%
9%
30%
69%
51%
20%
31%
*** We are having one Divers % gains since ATH:
11-9-30-69-51-20-31ght now...
Uwaga
Set up #2:1/ No Diver for our study earlier today for RSI !? "Green lines" + "Circles"
2/But today we have a Diver that is "On" & The same RSI structure as the Green lines below !!! 2 in 1 !!!
Therefore we have
A. A diver that suggest a move of at least +9% !
B. RSI that suggest a 50% retracement of last high then down .!
C. look next up date...
Uwaga
84-88 is next in 3-5 Trading days...Uwaga
In the past RSI'S trading set ups we had:#1 : (-17%) in 7 TDs
#2: (-7.31%) in 5 TDs
- At present, we have pulled back by (-8%). (Assuming we have a trough already)
Uwaga
84.96 Is next if we, and only if we, rhythm with past 2 set ups.Uwaga
Measuring Diver's length and magnitude in terms of % bullish gain ( Only and only if you are bullish for BABA)- 8 Divers since ATH:
20 TDS "Present !!!" Have we bottomed or not ?
15 TDS +31%
16 TDS +20%
13 TDS +61%
69 TDS +69%
29 TDS +30%
38 TDS +9%
14 TDS +11%
--------------
As we can see 9% was the minimum for past divers since ATH.! Now we have "Geopolitical" tension . If we take that out of our trading, and just trad the charts
before us we will get a minimum of +9% up to +61% bullish move in coming weeks.
If we include it in our trading then, no one really knows what is coming and all this analysis is just worthless.!
Uwaga
Gap down in HKI 9988 "Ali Baba"Uwaga
Still holding up 77.77 (Left LPS).!Still holding the Diver as expected.!
Uwaga
(-9%) Down still with in our study's %, but we have excedded days in this pullbackin the past we had 5 & 7 Trading days for such a move today we are entering 8th day but still with in out % down.!
""" In the past RSI'S trading set ups we had:
#1 : (-17%) in 7 TDs
#2: (-7.31%) in 5 TDs
- At present, we have pulled back by (-8%). (Assuming we have a trough already)""
Uwaga
Wycoff reminder, phase C vs phase CUwaga
According to Wycoff ( All else absolute)Breaking #1 Red line = We will break #2 Red line .
Uwaga
I will try to focus on Wycoff, lets see how things unfold with this schemes of accumulation .!Uwaga
So, according to this scheme 78.01-73.28 is a " Bear's trap".! But breaking below selling climax "SC" on the left ( 73.28) is a different story (Look previous idea)Uwaga
Not suggesting anything here, just stating the facts & the obvious here.!Heading to this so called second "Bear trap" according to Wycoff, is not like the first
one. The first we had better RSI + MACD both low with bid and small divers.! In this one we are about to invalidate our diver = we might/probably/could go much lower .!
Uwaga
The same with B% & William % Uwaga
So going back to our March "Long dated" Diver.! is it reliable or not ?!One good point for the Bulls is that both Bear traps are with in this long
dated diver. But #2 has less strength in it .! or not ?!
Uwaga
Could not count the previous waves. So i am just counting the Wykoff bear's trapOne probability out of many.!
Uwaga
Our risk down is by breaking Red line = 50is or even lower.!Uwaga
So continuing our Wycoff analysis here for "Scheme # 2) which is so far is in progress ( We will not know that we have scheme #1 in play till we break below 73.32 )According to Wycoff the "Trading range " is between the selling climax and the automatic rally ( as such in the chart bellow)
Uwaga
Therefore, we can break down below the "Secondary test" line in Blue & reach the "Selling climax" in Orange with out breaking below the later.! I named it here in orange "Extension".!Uwaga
How to know whether we are going to an extension of a bear trap or not, (or even going down for scheme # 1 ) no one knows that is the simplest answer. The more complex one is that we need to go back and follow our RSI'S study and structure.!As Friday's close this is our position for the RSI:
Comparing it with #1 Study.! ( If applicable) by Monday-Tuesday we shall know.!
Comparing it with study #2.! ( If applicable) by Monday-Tuesday we shall know.!
Uwaga
The sooner for this diver to invalidate the better is to me ,since i am down big time, and the fastest it's to reach a trough whether a "Temp" one or a big one.!Uwaga
Our second alternative is Wycoff #1 scheme, with is a probability out there but we need to break both lines as such on the chart.! Since we are still away from that no need to analyze it ( I pray we do no go that far)Uwaga
Our Head and shoulders pattern is still on, but the symmetrical look between right and left shoulder is loosing momentum.! And it's taking much longer time here working on the right shoulder. Not saying any thing here but looks more bearish than bullish. We need volume to increase next week big time.Uwaga
Some patterns are hard to digest.! Like this Triangle !!!Uwaga
More acceptable ones.!Uwaga
ABC Structure is still not complete.! We have passed equality A=C time wise & right on top of 1.61 C to A time wise.!Uwaga
Acceptable channel's tgtsUwaga
Q: What is best thing the RSI does tomorrow ?A: It would be great to just diver below our 3ed wave red in circle and break our divergence and get really low just like our #2 study's set up.! Less pain for bulls and faster bounce from going ABC up in green then another ABC down in Red as such on the chart below. Diving down hard and fast is the shortest way down for a trough.!
Uwaga
No one knows what is going to happen next week, we can only do our analysis based on the chart before us as of the moment.! If this is even remotely probable this is a comparison between our previous 1/2 analysis and a 30 Minutes "Zoom in" kind of picture.!If this analysis is applicable then 77.17 is a trough ( All else Absolut)
Uwaga
little tiny head and should with 74.40 as a TGT. The similarities between Wykoff #2 and BABA is too good to be true.!Uwaga
Acceptable patterns...Uwaga
Not sure about this, right of wrong, but 64 trading days looks interesting to say the least.!Uwaga
Uwaga
Bottom to top.!Bottom to bottom.!
Top to top.!
Uwaga
1/Hurst's cycles 18 Months, 40 weeks & 20 weeks from the top in "Blue" original time cycles.!2/Actual move for BABA top to bottom adjusted with 9% more in time than the original Hurst's cycles in "Orange"
Uwaga
After November the 7th, we will have gaps of no troughs.! Not the actual move in Orange nor the original Hurst's cycles in Blue.!Uwaga
Adding this seasonality indicator on Trading view as a back ground.!Uwaga
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Past Present: Our pullback is standing at (-10%)
Past
Present: (-11%) our Max was (-17%)
Uwaga
Correction, this is the present for the RSI:Uwaga
Still i do not see a complete structure here.!!! If you have or know a better count would love to see you point of view.!
Uwaga
Goofing around that's all...Uwaga
How it started ( Fist idea look up) and how it's actually playing out:1/ Invalidation on MFI, William % & B%.
2/ Divergences are still on RSI, MACD & VI.
Uwaga
Another goofing around, i found this on X "Long investor" ( Smaller H&S) Pattern on our main big H&S Pattern ( Look previous idea).! Uwaga
If you want a drama ;-) This last move is just like an Ending diagonal of .... "???"Perhaps wave C of Flat of ABC ? or this just twisting Elliott to satisfice our bias !!!
Uwaga
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If & only if applicable...Uwaga
Down channel if & only if applicable...Uwaga
If applicable, by this Friday we would know if we pass Diagonal's upper line or reach upper line of the channel ( if and only if we rhythm)Uwaga
RSI is rhythming thus far with study #1 :Uwaga
Past is starting to look a bit different here, lets hope i am wrong and we go ballistic up ;-) And we all be one big happy family ...Overlapping here, something is off or i am missing something here...
Uwaga
15 Minutes diagonal down instead of impulsive down or we have a trough in already.!Uwaga
We are still rhythming with RSI'S study #1 thus far, but the price did not reacted as expected . We should have already reach 10% up with such RSI retracing 61% .!We have already moved 5% up instead 10%. In another word the spike in the RSI is not correlating with last 2 days bullish move YET we still have 2 more trading days if we rhythm ( #1 was 4 Trading days to reach 10%) Now only 2 Trading days for 5%.!
Uwaga
( #1 was 4 Trading days to reach 10%) Now only 2 Trading days for 5%.!)Uwaga
This is where big fishes come of feasting, from here to 57 is 101 long time investors paradise.!Uwaga
# 1 : Analyzing as an E of ABCDE triangle is in already and we are wave C of ABC down.Uwaga
2 Sets of 5 waves.!1/ ABC of a diagonal (Trough is in )
2/ 1-2 set up for impulsive down.!
Uwaga
Same gaps different % down.!Uwaga
If our diagoan of some "sort or shape" does not work, then we should see hard sell off next (-22%) down only if we rhythm with RSI#1.!IF these charts fail then...
...This could be the final look of BABA @ $63 by next week.!
Uwaga
Study #2 the gap came 5 days later that it's today. Non the less the out come off both bearish scenarios is > (-20%)The study.!
Uwaga
IF you are bearish and only if you are bearish + we rhythm with the past Tuesday 31st of October 2023 is a trough < $70.!Uwaga
One for the bearish scenario.!Uwaga
All else absolute starting from Month # 1 .!Uwaga
Using the lowest ever as a starting point instead of the IPO'S Month.!Uwaga
This last spike is not corelating with all the previous spikes.! Only 5% up thus far, a broken trend that is about to leash/start a "Crash" or preparing for a sprint up.!Uwaga
According to Hurst's Cycles (18 Months), these periods are correlated with each other one way or another.!Uwaga
One thing to remember we can not have a triangle for waves 2. !!!Uwaga
Could be just another coincident, could be just like looking at pictures in the clouds OR it is the real deal.!""""""""“ past performance is not an indicator of future performance """""""
Uwaga
According to Hurst's 18 Months cycle, this is how "He" thinks we should look at our present structure. (All else absolute)*past performance is not an indicator of future performance
Uwaga
End of day, nothing really has changed according to the daily RSI, all else absolute.!Uwaga
End of day, nothing really has changed beside our "Overlapping " of wavesI, all else absolute.! 1-2 1-2 nest down!!! or a trough is in already. Very Very slow day to analyze BABA no action what so ever.!Uwaga
Comparing our present RSI set up with our 2 past studies, % , length and structure .!Uwaga
Who is telling the truth...Either the HKEX ALI BABA HOLDING is playing us or the ADR NYSE is playing us, one of these listings is setting up a trap up or down ? Is THE question to aske.!
1/ According to the HKEX'S listing we are in a similar set up as shown with different % drawdown.! No divers here....!!!!!!!
2/ According to the ADR NYSE we are still in a similar set up as shown with different % drawdown.! With diver here...!!!!!!!!!!!
Uwaga
Comparing the 2 moves at HKEX & ADR NYSE the results are very bullish, if and only if you are bullish and the HKEX"S listing is the right way to go, with its % gain & retracements.! Bear in mind that the ADR is still looking for a new lower low as presented extensively in previous ideas in our RSI studies.! Therefore this idea is only favoring the HKEX listing for this play out, otherwise lower low is coming according the ADR.!Uwaga
If you believe, look previous idea, this smart guy is correct about his cycles & you are bullish = We might have something like this Hurst's Cycles = Hurst's "Move" :-)
Next is something like this.! Or we are just looking at pictures in the clouds.!
Uwaga
- Summary of what's up there.! We are at a critical moment for BABA, either we crash as RSI suggest or we go up as some TA suggest.!- Choose your path carefully, things are going to get volatile from here till we breakdown or breakout.!
1/ B as a triangle suggest a move up ( Our RSI study suggest a move down).!
2/ A. B as a Flat suggest a move up as well.! ( The is a confluence with Hurst's Cycles)
B. But the flag is suggesting more down move.! and C need more drawdown.!
3/ Wycoff # 2 is suggesting a bear trap in progress ( Wyckoff #1 is very bearish)
4/ Seasonality suggest we should have already gone up to upper 90is.!
5/ Our "Too good to be true" count is suggesting big move a head.!
6/ Our RSI'S studies are suggesting volatility to go up and we crash big time as such on the charts.!
Set up #1/
Set up #2 :
7/Hurst's cycles suggest that we had our 18 Months trough already "Time wise"
Good luck everyone.!
Uwaga
We are one day late for our top of the RSI studies, touch down might/could be November 7th-9th or even before.! ( Only if you are bearish here).!- Textbook 2 sets of 5 waves up.!
Uwaga
IF you are bearish, our RSI'S studies suggest this is our trough.! This is only by assuming today is the beginning of wave 5 of wave C of ABC .!Uwaga
Back then, if applicable...Present, if applicable...
Uwaga
Back then if applicable...Present, if applicable...We have lost the MACD'S Divergence.! 2 Left Divers standing.!
Uwaga
Back then if applicable, 10.31.2023 is the day we break out "Diver"Present if applicable, We have not broken our "Diver" yet as of yesterday's close.!
Uwaga
If you are bullish and if this is even remotely probable, we could hit 95-99 in November.!Uwaga
Break out or break down ? Big move a head according to this inverse relation if and only if "Applicable".!Uwaga
Only if applicable...Uwaga
Only and "Only" if applicable, 101 break out from any trend line in any stock might/could get to such TGTS.! Uwaga
Add some Fibs + An orange 101 channel's TGTSUwaga
Past idea...with TGTS between 21%-26%.!Present idea... Far a way from top lands = Good for Bulls.! ( already up 8%)
*** Or could be "Irrelevant" and we crash.!
Uwaga
Past idea & how it suppose to play out...Present, how it is actually playing out...
*** We have broken out of the trend line, re tested it & going below it is not good.!
Uwaga
Entering trough land vey good for bulls next week.! Or as one of my comments suggest that this is more like looking at pictures in the clouds.!Uwaga
2ed retest, bulls are holding the line thus far.!Uwaga
Yes No ?Uwaga
73.32 Is the "Invalidation" for #2 Wycoff scheme = Selling climax "SC".!Uwaga
Back then in October...How it is actually playing out...
Uwaga
Back then in October, if applicable...How it is going on =, if applicable...
Uwaga
This may suggest a relationship that is different than anything we have analyzed.!Could be just pictures in the clouds
Uwaga
It suggest that today or Monday is our trough.! Could it be that simple.! Look at the % of SPX/BABA we have equality of some sort...Uwaga
Weekly, how far up can we go ?Uwaga
One point for the bulls, the highest 195 Minutes ( 1/2 day) Volume's 5 Days simple moving average since 2019... Daily still not that high as previous bottoms...Uwaga
Daily volume's 5 days SMA...Uwaga
Last 6 high reading since ATH ... 4 Bullish & 2 Bearish...Uwaga
How to De-code this wave structure ? When & Where we end this leg down ? Wycoff invalidation is close by if these 2 set ups actually play out ?#1
#2
*** RSI'S STUDY***
Uwaga
$58 -$66 Could/might be a probable major trough here, or not ?Uwaga
WXY has a range between .61 Fibs to equality as such on the chart.!ABC has a range between .61 Fibs to equity as such on the chart.!
Uwaga
$76-$75 Could/might be the "Minimum requirement" for a probable major trough here, or not ?Uwaga
HKIN'S BABA, suggest/implies that we still need another lower low.!Higher volume suggest/implies that we are bottoming/about to soon .! (Previous idea)
Uwaga
Uwaga
I had to change the setting on my browser to see all data.! Since IPO we have never had such a spike in the volume's 5 days moving averageUwaga
The minimum has been achieved for a trough, or not .!Past idea
Present 19% Equality is on the right top corner.! Or we go up to the 1.23 Fibs ???
Uwaga
All the above, if it's even remotely applicable, suggest/implies that Green box is a long time investors buying area.!Uwaga
Weekly volume structure suggest that $73 is kind off bottom lands, $60 is more kind of the end of trough lands "If applicable".!Uwaga
Current & Forward P/E... Does not get much better than this for the long time investors...Short term investors well it depends on your entry...Uwaga
Whether ABC down or WXY down equality of time ,all else absolute & if applicable, is approaching 1st of December.!If and only if these legs down are related in WXY/ABC structures some how, then time wise December 1st is the equality of time.!
Uwaga
Selling Climax is about to be broken = Invalidation of the Wycoff scheme # 2 = we might/could according to Wycoff schemes # 1 (If applicable + All else absolute) that we will break below $58.01 .! Only time will tell.!Uwaga
Uwaga
Big guys will load up, small guys will unload...Uwaga
Uwaga
- Our 2 RSI'S bearish Set ups have achieved the minimum for a trough in place. 3 Red circles show that a probable trough is in already. That said today we are already (-1% Premarket) + BABA is Down graded at Morgan .! Our price targets for the 2 bearish set ups have not been reached yet nor the 23-22 RSI levels.!- Seasonality is lower highs and lower lows till May 2024.
- Wycoff Scheme # 2 which we have followed and analyzed extensively here is about to be invalidated by breaking < Selling Climax which is very close by breaking it we will have more selling pressure.
- Wycoff Scheme #1 is = New all time lows or close by it.
- WXY + ABC structures are in close ranges with our RSI studies.
In a nut shell, we have not reached $66-$60 price range nor the 22-23 RSI levels but structurally we have achieved the minimum. We should not break below $73 in order for this structure to continue to be bullish in next days/weeks.
---- All else absolute---
----- Only if applicable---
Uwaga
If you are still bullish, this confluence of Time of structures + Confluence of 2 Trend lines Selling Climax + March/May Trend line = We are in Trough lands.!Uwaga
On daily, moment of truth...Uwaga
Uwaga
Our 2 Bearish RSI studies are in full force here...RSI Might reach 24-23 before the price reaches $66-$60...
Uwaga
Selling Climax "SC" @ 73.32 has been broken intraday last Friday.! Uwaga
All else absolute & if applicable.!Uwaga
Q: What is the risk of this Wycoff invalidation by breaking "Intraday" the Selling Climax last Friday ?A: Algos ( Big computers & auto trading) could be playing us because they are designed/built to invalidated all the known trading schemes and set ups by triggering all the stops up & down. So we we could be bouncing soon !!! Or not and we go down for Wyckoff scheme # 1 < $58 .
- No one knows the future, all of these analysis/ideas are just a " Games of probabilities " and we do our best to observe them to the best of our ability to
manage our risk.!
Uwaga
Confluence of tgts:1/ Wycoff # 1 Scheme is < 58 ( ST in Phase B)
2/ Channel's broken tgt = 47.83
3/ RSI tgts MAX $60
4/ Wave C= 1-1.26 of Wave A ($60-$48)
5/ We are standing at a similar confluences of support ( Past ideas) that is falling a part, broken and invalidated.!
5/This is "Algos" playground & these confluences are just a generational "Bear trap"
6/ All this analysis is simply wrong.!
Uwaga
Past idea up dated.! ( For all it's worth)- All else absolute & if applicable next Fib's time lines.!
1/December 11th
2/December 26th
3/ January 16th
Uwaga
HK50/SPX is in trough lands already could/might bottom in days/weeks.!Overlaying with BABA.! Baba will bottom sooner than many of us expect.!
Uwaga
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Applying this to BABA, only and only, if applicable and all else absolute.!Uwaga
We are standing at 35% 2ed correction since data, largest is 45% .!!!-Pictures in the cloud
Uwaga
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Up dating our RSI bearish set ups.!Printing 28 at the RSI, tgts, if applicable all else absolute is 23-24 rsi readings.!
Uwaga
Updating a previous idea.! SPX/BABAReaching the climax here, this is officially trough lands. The question is how far can we go down ?
Uwaga
Updating a previous idea.! Consumer discretionary/BABAReaching the climax here, this is officially trough lands. The question is how far can we go down on baba ?
Uwaga
Updating a previous idea.!3 Trending lines have been broken last Friday, what is next ?
A: 1/ Retest and go down.
2/ Algos/computers did a false break down "Bear
trap" and now trying to go up again.!
Uwaga
All else absolute & if applicable traders are loading up on BABA .!Uwaga
I have a feeling that we might bottom sooner than what we may have in our 2 bearish RSI set ups.! Uwaga
We could/might bottom this week or next that's my feeling/bias .!Uwaga
All else absolute & if applicable WXY Vs ABC time wise.!Uwaga
This is so so so bottoming behavior.! we are missing only 3 things from our 2 RSI bearish set ups. First is a gap down to shake out bulls & create a bear's trap.! Secondly $60-$60 which we may reach or not Thirdly RSI'S readings btw 23-24 which we may not reach.- Risk down: First is Wycoff # 1 < $58 Secondly HKIN & SSEC which are still have not bottomed yet Thirdly, my analysis is just wrong.!
HKIN Ali Baba
NYSE Adr BABA
Uwaga
RSI is printing 27.!Uwaga
RSI printing 26.92...Uwaga
All Red lines were previous troughs, landing shortly days/week-s :-)Uwaga
Vortex indictor in general is not good at such places "Generally speaking" more risk down than bullish moves.!- Will dive more on this shortly... for more fractals.
Uwaga
We are going to dive in on the highest 4 readings ( Current level or higher):- All were back in the day...
1/Bullish move +22, +51 & +80%
2/Risk down is (-9%)
Uwaga
Next Highest 5 readings...- All spread out...
1/Bullish moves +10, +27 & +80%
2/Risk down is (-14%) & (-33%)
- Lower reading more risk down % & #s
Uwaga
Updating a previous idea...- Do we have a 5th wave touch down or no ?
- 30 M , 60 M & 195 M...
Uwaga
HKIN & BABA .! Risk down is that this so called "Fractal" is basically wrong.!- All else absolute & only if applicable .!
10%-26%
Uwaga
Anyone with any thoughts on the mater 'Divers" ?Uwaga
Updating previous idea...Uwaga
Updating a previous idea - Consumer Discretionary / BABA.!
-RSI curling down, March 22 #s & testing a previous high. Could be nothing, could a bottom is in already or very close by.!
Uwaga
Elliott wave theory's guides, not a "Rule".! We can retrace as much 100% of Wave one theoretically.! We are standing 9 Cents below .786% .! - One probability out there, all else absolute & if applicable
Uwaga
One probability out there is that we are in a very extremes and rare Fibs numbers for a flat of some sort for wave 4. The only thing to bring this probability is that we have an overlapping which is a NO NO in Elliott wave btw w4 &w2 .!Uwaga
HKIN is suggesting a 5 waves down is complete VS NYSE Which suggest a complex wave 4 in progress.!1/Passed .786 Fibs Retracements
2/No Overlapping btw w2 & w4
Uwaga
SPX/BABA Shows very rare and extremes reading. The last 2 tops were1/ 3.15.2022 with baba @ $ 73.28, our current low is $71.49
2/ 10.24.2022 with baba @ $ 58.01, our current low is $71.49
- We are at the same level of extremes printing as # 2 but with a price of $71.49 not $58.01 .!
Uwaga
How it looks weekly, official trough land, risk down is $58.!- Top is the "Ratio" & bottom is BABA.!
Uwaga
- If remotely probable, applicable & all else absolute.!- One crazy probability out there if the ratio between SPX/BABA plays out.! Last highest 2 readings were followed by... Risk down is $58...
- Can this actually work out with everything going on .!
Uwaga
RSI curling up, crossing above 30 then going down since the IPO:- If remotely probable, applicable and all else absolute has the following, statistic, risk down as shown on the chart below.!
Uwaga
$60-$66 is our RSI bearish set ups.!- One gap should do the trick, if it's remotely probable, applicable and all else absolute.!
- Risk is that BABA at HK Exchange has a very clear 5 waves down completed !!! ( look past idea )
- Which way is it going to be, time will reveal the direction.
Uwaga
1/ Our 2 Bearish RSI studies show targets between 24 + 23 !2/Current move has achieved 26 !
Do we have a trough in already, or we go a bit down further ?
Uwaga
Looking at it form a weekly perspective .!Our bearish RSI set up #1 only missing the gap down, if it's even remotely probable, applicable and all else absolute .!
Uwaga
Q: Some risk down ? YesQ: Close to a trough ? Yes
Q: How close ? Perhaps days
Q: Is $58 probable ? Yes
Q: Other risk ? Yes.
Q: What is it ? My work is basically wrong or irrelevant or not probable .
Q: Any suggestions ? Yes do your own analysis it's your own money after all.
Q: Advice ? Sorry, not a financial advisor.
Q: Nutshell of this entire thread ? I have came to the conclusion that we are in a similar position/circumstances to the best of my ability/understanding as shown on the chart below ( Green lines) to have entered "Trough" lands with higher probability than usual trading weeks with a clear and dangerous risk to the down side of up to $58 With every variable whether internally for BABA or Externally from BABA being completely and utterly "Absolute".
Uwaga
Trying to speak out loud here to my self after entering long last Friday.! Baba usually will rhythm with the SSE Composite whether lagging or leading. What is comforting me is that baba has very clear 5 waves down.! The risk down on baba to $58 is that the SSEC looks like it is in a triangle for wave 4 or an ABC with B Flat.! Basically there is going to be another lower low for SSEC against seasonality which is very bullish from now on till may 2024.!Uwaga
Uwaga
Uwaga
With out BABA ADR ...With BABA ARD...
Uwaga
For BABA to go up, SSE composite needs to "Hold" the line, or massive correction is in the way.!Whether leading of lagging...
Uwaga
Updating a previous idea...This thing just broke last high and printing the highest number ever.!!!!
Uwaga
Monthly from ATH, 3 TL rejection.!Uwaga
If and only if we break out of this ATH'S trend line = 101 is next.!- One hell of a stubborn trend line :-)
Uwaga
William % , adjusted to 120 Days 2ed lowest reading ever since IPO. Another 23 days in bearishness according to this idea to rhythm with lowest ever. Probable but very very very extremes. Uwaga
2ed longest diver 35 Days longest is 57 days between RSI & W% both adjusted.!Uwaga
Money Flow Index and it's RSI, suggest that we are in the final stages of trough making. Only if probable, applicable and all else absolute. - ( Three probable previous signals, if we rhythm)
Uwaga
Stochastic oscillator no signs of bottoming yet. This is the most concerning indicator thus far It's not showing any sings of reversal except low reading.! Uwaga
Nothing here, we have had a spike last week but this week thus far...Uwaga
Updating a previous idea...AD Ratio printing above 5.09 .!- If applicable, probable and all else absolute.!
- Risk down is (-7%) -(-9%), we are already (-2%).!
Uwaga
Just goofing around with various indicators here.! - Surprisingly enough this indicator does not show big divergences for may indicators out there.!!!
Uwaga
Wave trend indictor by lazy Bear.! From such lows the least bullish move was +11%= $76 .!
- If applicable, probable and all else absolute.!
Uwaga
RVOL, Relative Volume 5 bad signals vs 4 good ones .!- Max drawdowns between (-15%)- (-3%). We stand today at (-8%) another 8 for max down.!
- Bullish moves were Max between +11% & +80%
Uwaga
Updating a previous idea...-Trough making in progress, the question is it in already or we go down a bit further ?
-Amzn/Baba is printing new ATH + MACD'S New ATH .!
Uwaga
Every Indicator has been "Examined" & "Analyzed " for BABA ADR + 9988 HKIN.! The rest is in the hands of Al MIGHTY GOD
Uwaga
Updating a previous idea...- The selling climax at 73.38 is basically the Bulls must achieve number, it sets above 3 trade lines and will signal a bullish move in progress.
Uwaga
Are they comparable or no ? Wave A vs Wave C .!Uwaga
The cloud suggesting we are in the final stages of a "Trough making'- Most signal lines were at a trough or days/weeks before one.!
Uwaga
Bollinger Band lowest RSI'S readings since IPO:1/ Tuesday 13 December 2023 : was the 3ed in line and pointing down.!
2/ Friday 04 Sep 2015 : 18 TDs for a trough with (-10%) along the way, then historical/generational low .!
3/Tuesday 17 August 2021: 4 TDs for a trough with (-11%) along the way, then +16% then lower low.!
Uwaga
2 MACD'S Divergences: ( Lower probability here for both)- 50% Bullish 50% Bearish.!
Bearish -6%/-8% between 11-15 TDS.
-Bullish +21%/+84% after 5 TDS of the signal.
- In order for this play out we need to hold the diver.!
Uwaga
I have posted some Breadth's data on X, enjoy :-)Uwaga
BABA is about to invalidate it's "Divergence" not good at all for Bulls if it plays out.!- (-6%)- (-16%) is the risk down.!
Uwaga
BABA at HKIN 9988, has invalidated it's diver 2 days ago with (-2%) down.! Moreover does not have such similar goofing around 30 line like NYSE ADR except on 2 occasions. .!9988 Playing with the 30 line twice .!
Uwaga
Updating a previous idea.!- We are setting between .789 & .85 .
Uwaga
Uwaga
Updating a previous idea BABA/AMZN...1/This thing better hold it's divergence # 4 & #5 with BABA or the risk down is (-32%) -(-28%) for BABA.
2/ We are in between 2 & 3 % Drawdown.
3/(-72%) drawdown is Green line, which is very close and will probably be touched soon for #5 to match #1.
Uwaga
Our RSI'S study is holding it's Divergence, better hold it for a bullish move or things could get ugly.! We did not reach price wise, but got close enough with the RSI print.- We are not out of the wood yet, but something needs to happen here externally/internally for baba .
A/ Good news , probably, would confirm a trough is in already. ( Close the Paradis gaps)
B/Bad news, probably, will just fast forward the "Trough making' process to make a landing/touch down. Either way, watch the news next few days/weeks.
Uwaga
Finding a needle in a haystack...- Anything looks bullish, i took the trade last week, is good for the bullish guys out there.!
Uwaga
Finding a needle in a haystack...- Anything looks bullish, i took the trade last week, is good for the bullish guys out there.!
Uwaga
Finding a needle in a haystack...- Anything looks bullish is a good for the bullish guys out there.!
Uwaga
Pitchfork...Uwaga
Gann square FixedUwaga
Gann FanUwaga
2 in 1Uwaga
This up date is just to mention all the probable targets of our previous ideas up there, if applicable, if probable & all else absolute.!1/ Triangle :85-80
2/Gann: 85-87
3/Gann Square : 77.77 if break out then 85-87
4/Fib : 85-87
5/ Fib: 75-78
6/ MACD'S DIVERGECES: 21% -85% = 85-130
7/ BABA/AMZN: 27%-45% = 89-101
8/ Bollinger band: 16%-50% = 81-105
9/ Wave trend by lazybear: 11% 77-91
10/SPX/BABA: 70%- 109%= 118-147
11/ HKIN & BABA: 10%-26% = 79-90
12/ Vortex Indicator: 22% -80% = 85-126
13/ RSI'S Study #2: by 27th December 86
14/ RSI'S #1: By December 12th xxx 88
15/ Volume's 5 Days sma:8%-98% = 76-138
16/ Wedge : 137
1/ H&S: >103
17/ Fibs Channels: 75-85-95
18/ABCDE: 100
19/WYCOFF : 125
20/ Seasonality by late November: 94-96
Uwaga
On October 16th, i posted this. Could this be a lagging seasonality or not and this thing is not relevant.!Uwaga
In reality right this very moment, this is how it may play out, or not just like the October one .!!!Uwaga
-SSE Composite's RSI oversold territory has a supporting base for baba, except one time we crashed big time July 2018 .!- 7 Bullish vs 1 Bearish for BABA we entering an "Oversold" territory" Red lines.!
Uwaga
Updating last one, with % gain/lose for BABA since IPO.!-5 low RSI readings with 3 of them seeing (-11%) -(-30%) bearish moves before any bullish move.
- The question in our case here, right this moment is that whether our RSI has reached it's selling Climax or no. If so, then we are in for a bullish move just like October 22 if not then we should see some bearishness here.!
- If ever probable, applicable & else absolute.!
-2015 + 222 are closest in levels and price.!
- Key is SSE Composite has a trough or not yet.!
Uwaga
- Ever probable, applicable & else absolute.!1/ Unless WW 3 starts, we start 1929 recession, geopolitical issues arise and we totally stop rhythming with the past + 40 years or so of historic data since 1992-2023 we are having a major trough a "Generational" one.
2/ With a risk down of (-3%)-(-7%) from this week till April of 2024 .!
3/ I am using SPX/SSEC'S MACD highest reading, represented here with Blue lines.!
4/ 8 signals out there since 1992 .!
5/ The move is between +39% up to +300% with in 15 weeks or 129 Days.!
6/ We should have a major trough with in 15 weeks or 129 Days.
7/ This signal only happens roughly every 5 years or so!
8/ 2024-2025 is an interesting 2 years for the
SSE Composite.
9/Or this is irrelevant & this whole idea is simply wrong!
Uwaga
BABA'S Main Moving Averages (Indicator on Trading view):-50D @ $78 Fist main resistance
- 80D @ $80
- 200D @ $86 Main resistance
Uwaga
RSI'S Readings at low print has been very positive for BABA:1/ 12%-109% bullish move is expected within 6 Days - 156 Days with a success rate of 74%.
2/ Bearish moves with a success rate of 26% have a lower low, then big bullish moves.
DATA:
32% in 9 Days
109% in 64 Days
69% in 6 Days
27% in 27 Days
16% in 8 Days
12% in 31 Days
29% in 32 Days
17% in 10 Days
21% in 21 Days
29% in 36 Days with lower low (11%)
144% in 360 Days with lower low (8%)
85% in 156 Days
48% in 30 Days with lower low (23%)
23% in 5 Days
12% in 13 Days
22% in 56 Days with lower low ( 9%)
Uwaga
Using & Appling The longinvestor's idea/tweet to a chart:- Ever probable, applicable & else absolute.!
- Within 5 weeks.!
- Or this time it's a different move .!
Uwaga
Weekly signal, duration < 9 SMA suggesting a trough in the making Last one 12.15.2023.!-By 2.15.2024 (W/in 60 Ds of the signal):
1/ Risk🔻(-13%)=$62 .
2/ Bullish move +62%=$118
3/ Average up @ +28%=$94
4/Average🔻@ (-11%)=$65
* Range $62-$118
- Check X for more details.
Uwaga
- Recent similar earnings, or not.!Uwaga
Uwaga
Uwaga
Just like looking at pictures in the clouds, and trying to be Bullish by any mean probable😎Uwaga
Risk down is Red box...
Uwaga
$52-$62Uwaga
101 Channel, just drawing some of what is out there nothing more nothing less.!Uwaga
Uwaga
Can we go down further or not.!Uwaga
Uwaga
You only have to watch this if you are long, or not .!Uwaga
- Could we apply this right this very moment or not ?- Ever probable, applicable & else absolute.!
" What is the theory of contrary opinion?
The theory of contrary opinion, otherwise known as contrarian investing, is a psychological theory applied to trading, according to which, when most people have the same opinion about what the market is going to do, there is a high probability that it moves in the opposite direction to that expected by that mass of people.
In other words, the theory of contrary opinion in trading tries to anticipate a change in the trend in the price of a financial asset, even though market sentiment or technical and/or fundamental indicators indicate a contrary position.
Due to the characteristics of trading, this change of direction will be more intense at the beginning of the movement. Traders usually limit losses by placing a stop loss. Therefore, when there is a change in trend, these orders begin to jump and a domino effect occurs that sinks or triggers the value of the financial asset.
Consequently, the potential loss, if the trend continues, is small compared to the potential benefit of speculating on a possible change in direction. "
Uwaga
*In the past 39 Minutes,84% Lowering tgt & 14% Raising tgtUwaga
New Trend lines vs old broken ones .!Uwaga
2 Previous broken falling wedges BABA keeps defying all bullishnesstechnically & fundamentally.!
Uwaga
One way to look at it, out of many while BABA keeps defying every signal bullish scenario out there.!!!Uwaga
If you are bullish, but not liking the numbers here something is not adding up.!Uwaga
Just a Game of trades2018's Fractal for 195 Minutes G.Cross:
1/Is implying 212 Ds for a major trough
2/False break of last low
3/By February 27th-29th W break <66.63 "Intraday"
-Ever probable, applicable & all else absolute
* Still down big time on my long positions.!
Uwaga
Another Game of trades...- Fractal for daily's volume 21D SMA since all time high passing the blue line = we are in a trough.
-Range +10% / +90%
- Blue circles = Same price lvls
-Ever probable, applicable & all else absolute
Uwaga
How far guys how far are we from a trough They keep kicking the can down the road or not .!Uwaga
40 Days adjusted...Uwaga
Uwaga
BABA has achieved the minimum for such high readings on the Vortex indicator.!-Range for this signal is +10% / 107% (+11% Achieved)
-Range for this signal @ such a low price is +50% / 107%
* Out of "Norm" to have such a low bullish move after high readings in a low price range.!
Uwaga
Ali BABA at HKI has one dollar, lower, target than ADR NYSEUwaga
If this count is even remotely probable, applicable and all else absolute.!Uwaga
Goofing around till China's holiday finishes & W get a sense of direction up/down-W had a spike > the upper line, yet .786 was the bouncing area
-Does this make it a strong bullish channel, yet to B confirmed
-Retesting upper line for 3 wks = Real or Fake ?
Uwaga
- Zooming out a little bit, .5 + .382 Are the strongest for any probable touch downs .!- .23 Is the resistance .!
Uwaga
- W R 4 weeks longer in this "Drawdown" than any other time since the IPO .!- W R basically "Overextended" to say the least.!
-The question how far can we go down form here if we go down for a 5th wave.!
* Or this is it !
Uwaga
Updating...Uwaga
Updating with a zoom in...Past
Present
Uwaga
1/ Blue = One final leg down .!2/ Orange = C has finished, we are in a bullish move.!
3/ This count is basically wrong .!
Uwaga
Seasonality is 19 Days -7 Days off its norm the in Q4+Q1 , if and only if we use the same numbers with every thing out there in the whole world absolute = We might have a trough before March 7th or not and this analysis is basically wrong.!Uwaga
Updating...- Fib's channel 101 .!
-Back again for the 6th time above .236 (Red line), will it hold this time around or not and down we go ?
*Ever probable, applicable & all else absolute
Uwaga
NYSE ADR vs HKEXUwaga
Uwaga
For all its worth...-10th Time, since 2023 alone, already to play chicken with this "Major" trend line.!
-Max < this RED line was (-25%) During August-September 2015
*Ever probable, applicable & all else absolute
Four Defenders VS four attackers .!
2015 Vs 2024 Something is not adding up... Or this is a different time & a different move.!
* Ever probable, applicable & all else absolute
One way to look at it out of many this is wave 4 complex we still got another 5th wave down after we reach 81-82. Or not and this is wrong.!
Updating...
W% W% adjusted for 40 Days is at it's lowest ever with (-12%) already, the max with much higher print was (-29%).!
Uwaga
Are we forming a Pennant on BABA ?It's a continuation pattern & form when there is a large movement in a security, known as the flagpole.
Consolidation should have 👇volume & the breakouts should occur on 👆 volume
Uwaga
Are we forming a H&S pattern ?Right & left shoulder are not having a symmetrical look.! But, if you consider this to be an "Okay" pattern then $92 is your target.!
*Ever probable, applicable & all else absolute
Uwaga
I have exited all my long positions.! Too risky to trade earnings.!Uwaga
Just to be clear some elliottsion are suggesting +$120 targets in few months.!
I do more in depth studies of stocks on my twitter account. Hope you would enjoy it there as you are enjoying it here.
****** Past performance is no guarantee of future results***
twitter.com/samitrading1
****** Past performance is no guarantee of future results***
twitter.com/samitrading1
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