AMD - Where we were, Where we are, and Where we are going...

31 gru 2019

Description to Follow...

31 gru 2019

Uwaga

See my other ideas on AMD for back context.

31 gru 2019

Uwaga

1. Start of new trend - October 8th 2001

2. Head and Shoulder Pattern (Larger Version - See Other ideas)

3. H&S Left Shoulder ($41.75) - Long Term Resistance as Well / This was also formed due to the "Sell on the News" Phase I. So validity is questionable as to the $37.75 armpit depth.

4. Armpit $37.75 on Quick Phase I Selloff.

5. Then we pull back to $39 Consolidation Area.

6. We identified a Bullish Continuation Ascending Triangle hear and published with a $46 price target which we met.

7. Then between $45.25 and $45.50 we get the Bearish Wedge (Red Line), and we see DIVERGENCE ON THE STOCHASTIC. This indicates reversal.

8. Then we get a mini head and shoulders up to the supply area of $47+, where the sellers from the 2000 $47.50 closing high are waiting to take positions like MAD.

9. Of course they are shorting, it is December 26th, AND VOLUME IS LIGHT, AND JANUARY 2ND TAX SELLING AND REBALANCING IS RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER.

0. All patterns clearly show both exhaustion, and fear of the January unknown.

1. AMD HAS RUN OUT OF TIME NOW ON THIS RUN.

2. We have had 6 waves, or maybe 7 on this run. Too much, too fast.

3. Then we had a small supply zone at $46.60 and this was identified on others ideas.

4. This broke easily, and we headed to the second H&S neckline at $46.

5. More traders took up short positions at $46.60 and $46.

6. That SPRING FORMATION is a bearish reversal pattern on the downtrend, and when I saw that bounce this morning as our flight was leaving I figured $46 or maybe $45.75 and it would reverse. NO BUYERS.

7. That is a CLASSIC TRAP

8. The VXX spiked on Friday, and we took nice volatility positions before this (Bobby Spa can attest).

9. We were looking for GLD and VXX and the rest DOWN today for continuation.

0. NOBODY BUT DAY TRADERS WILL BUY THIS BEFORE JANUARY 2ND.

1. The VXX went for $15 to $16 in one day. We killed it today.

2. VXX and UVXY and great negative correlations to HEDGE an AMD portfolio.

31 gru 2019

Uwaga

WE ARE OUT OF TIME, AND OUT OF BUYERS. MOMENTUM IS DONE.

31 gru 2019

Uwaga

We are expecting a gap down and break of $45 tomorrow. We will be watching any gap down, or gap up and sell, very carefully tomorrow. 0

We do not have any idea what happens on Friday, but VXX, TVIX, UVXY, GLD, AMD, SMH and a few others will tell us what we want to know.

As always, the MELT UP may continue in January very HARD, if the tax selling and rebalancing doesn't lead to more downside and that 10 percent correction we are looking for.

31 gru 2019

Uwaga

So we are waiting for the breakout below the supply zone tomorrow and that may render this area inconsequential in the future.

Updates tomorrow live for the last trading day of the year.

31 gru 2019

Uwaga

YOU HAVE TO ASK YOURSELF ONE QUESTION?????

UNLESS THERE IS NEWS TOMORROW, AND THERE IS ONLY A HALF DAY OF TRADING, AND JANUARY 2ND IS THE NEXT OPENING DAY AFTER TOMMOROW, AND ALL PEOPLE WITH 100 PERCENT PLUS PROFIT CAN SELL AND NOT PAY TAXES FOR A YEAR AND/OR RE-BALANCE AND PAIR BIG WINNERS FOR UNDER-PERFORMERS THIS COMING FRIDAY. OBVIOUSLY NOBODY IS BUYING NOR SELLING. WHY BUY JANUARY 1ST? YOU CAN BUY NOW. BUT YOU DON'T WANT TO SELL UNTIL 2020.

DO YOU TAKE A LONG POSITION IN SEMICONDUCTORS TOMORROW UNLESS YOU ARE ILL?

That should give you all the sentiment reading you need for tomorrow. I wouldn't spend 5 cents tomorrow. If I have ANY new money to work, and am already in the market, I WAIT FOR A JANUARY PULLBACK. Plain and simple. If you put new money to work in Semiconductors on the long side tomorrow, please see a mental health professional immediately.

If you are itching to get back in, wait, no action is action. Don't get into a late entry trap and get creamed please.

Have a great evening, Happy Holidays, and Happy New Year.

31 gru 2019

Uwaga

Also please don't forget the following in terms of earnings. This will also cause the VIX to go up before, unless we get some signals that all is going to be stellar to be commensurate with the run (which it simply can't be):

Intel is January 23rd, and we are watching closely.

1. NVDA – Feb 13
2. AMD – Jan 28
4. XLNX – Jan 22
5. TSM – 16 Jan *** NEXT
6. INTC – 23 Jan
7. AMAT – 13 Feb
8. AVGO – Mar 12
9. LRCX – 22 Jan
10. KLAC – 28 Jan
11. MRVL – 05 Mar
12. ON – 31 Jan
13. QCOM – 29 Jan
14. STM – 23 Jan
15. TXN – 22 Jan

31 gru 2019

Uwaga

Correction - New Uptrend October 8 2019 (Not 2001)

31 gru 2019

Zlecenie aktywne

Also watch for 200 and 50 day cross, on different frames, but one month might do.

31 gru 2019

Uwaga

That cross might be around $45 depending on the frame, and cause more people to sell and take short positions who ARE NOT waiting for January 2nd.

31 gru 2019

Uwaga

And I obviously indulged too much over vacation, as New Years Eve, is a full session of trading until 4pm... bond market closes early...