AAPL - Big Correction Coming?
The velocity of AAPL's move and that of its brethren over the first 5 weeks of the year is unremarkable, yes you read that right.
After many of the tech giants reached extreme oversold conditions in the last two months of 2022, 2023 has seen these same stocks skyrocket with short covering, no tax loss selling, and "good" economic news, and in this environment good means good for stocks and bad means good for stocks. Look at the 26.5% move in AAPL (100% in TSLA and NVDA and many others in the 25-75% camp).
The market is infested with stocks that have had enormous gains. Earnings have not been anywhere near great and these stocks act as if they were firing on all cylinders. DIS reversed hard after good earnings. GOOG has taken a 15% haircut in 2 days. AMZN, MSFT and AAPL all look tired, overbought and ready for a real correction. Leon Cooperman said you buy stocks when stocks go up on bad news. GOOG and DIS went down on both types of news and I see a trend change for 2023 coming. So goes January who cares. Let there be no doubt that this is a bull rally inside a bear market and nothing more than distribution at higher prices (again).
My work suggests that a test of the 200 day ($148) and 150 day ($146) averages are coming soon with MACD and RSI starting to roll over. IMO a definitive break of these levels and AAPL won't see this level again until after it has visited double digits for a while. With the CPI report Tuesday, AAPL may see those averages sometime in the next three days.
Looks like a deeper correction for AAPL may be coming. With the 50% FIB level for the 2023 move around $140 I like that as an initial target.
Happy Trading
After many of the tech giants reached extreme oversold conditions in the last two months of 2022, 2023 has seen these same stocks skyrocket with short covering, no tax loss selling, and "good" economic news, and in this environment good means good for stocks and bad means good for stocks. Look at the 26.5% move in AAPL (100% in TSLA and NVDA and many others in the 25-75% camp).
The market is infested with stocks that have had enormous gains. Earnings have not been anywhere near great and these stocks act as if they were firing on all cylinders. DIS reversed hard after good earnings. GOOG has taken a 15% haircut in 2 days. AMZN, MSFT and AAPL all look tired, overbought and ready for a real correction. Leon Cooperman said you buy stocks when stocks go up on bad news. GOOG and DIS went down on both types of news and I see a trend change for 2023 coming. So goes January who cares. Let there be no doubt that this is a bull rally inside a bear market and nothing more than distribution at higher prices (again).
My work suggests that a test of the 200 day ($148) and 150 day ($146) averages are coming soon with MACD and RSI starting to roll over. IMO a definitive break of these levels and AAPL won't see this level again until after it has visited double digits for a while. With the CPI report Tuesday, AAPL may see those averages sometime in the next three days.
Looks like a deeper correction for AAPL may be coming. With the 50% FIB level for the 2023 move around $140 I like that as an initial target.
Happy Trading
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