Apple IncShort
AAPL Weekly Wave Count Suggests New Bear Market
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Just following up with the prior AAPL idea linked below that demonstrated just how silly a mid-range daily shooting star can be in a pattern like this one.
The count above is on the weekly timeframe, which means any "minor" break of that basic upward trendline cannot be ignored. Thus, we cannot ignore the thrice-broken trendline as the price action tops along the way.
The actual count seems to reflect a very desperate sentiment of bullish frustration as you can see three C-Wave failures in three straight weekly candles in a row. You can discern the C-failures from the typical B-Wave price action by how long and equally-distributed the wicks are on each of the consecutive candles. C-Wave failures tend to lead to severe downward price action after enough momentum has been sapped out of the bullish trend. It is by this process that a "Zig-Zag" correction loses momentum - the C-Wave fails, thus turning the corrective structure into a "Flat," which fails again, turning the "Flat" into a "Horizontal Triangle."
The entire "terminal triangle" is not decidedly different-looking than any other mid-trend triangle in the 2-Wave, 4-Wave or B-Wave positions, aside from the fact that it terminates all the way towards the very end of the converging triangular trendlines. If this were to continue higher on the second or third C-Wave attempt, then the pattern would not be one of terminal consideration because it would have finished up well before the hypothetical tip - created by its own trendlines.
In this case, AAPL's horizontal triangle finishes at the convergence, then breaks a very key level support to the downside, closing below it on a weekly candle. At this point, I believe the weekly trend has changed, which has way more implications than it should for the rest of the market. This is due to the insane market cap of AAPL that keeps artificially expanding via FED corporate loan purchases, which then turn into stock splits, repurchases, etc. Is AAPL a great company? Yes. Does that mean AAPL should be included in every major index to help "stabilize things" even if these indices are categorically not supposed to represent the same area of commerce? NO! (in my humble opinion, that is.)
The reason I have this opinion is because it wrecks markets. You'll see what I mean when we start seeing entirely unrelated sectors start breaking down despite the particularly bullish environment that would otherwise propel these stocks higher in the near-term. It also very much undermines the idea of free markets when we all know that there is blatant manipulation being had on a market-wide scale everyday via all the basket programs, leverage, contract printing, etc. To account for this, I tagged many unrelated sector ETFs at the bottom of the idea for good measure.
In conclusion, since AAPL's apparent wave count is bearish on the weekly, points to a terminal triangle completion as of today and is representative of all completion indices at this point, I thought it relevant to share with you all in preparation for the new bear market.
Lastly - the Russian conflict occurred months after the trendline breaks and terminal triangle formation. Take what you will from this.
-The-Pig-AAPL
AAPL
SPX
IXIC
WW4500
SPY
XBI
XLU
XLE
XLF
XLK
XLV
XLP
The count above is on the weekly timeframe, which means any "minor" break of that basic upward trendline cannot be ignored. Thus, we cannot ignore the thrice-broken trendline as the price action tops along the way.
The actual count seems to reflect a very desperate sentiment of bullish frustration as you can see three C-Wave failures in three straight weekly candles in a row. You can discern the C-failures from the typical B-Wave price action by how long and equally-distributed the wicks are on each of the consecutive candles. C-Wave failures tend to lead to severe downward price action after enough momentum has been sapped out of the bullish trend. It is by this process that a "Zig-Zag" correction loses momentum - the C-Wave fails, thus turning the corrective structure into a "Flat," which fails again, turning the "Flat" into a "Horizontal Triangle."
The entire "terminal triangle" is not decidedly different-looking than any other mid-trend triangle in the 2-Wave, 4-Wave or B-Wave positions, aside from the fact that it terminates all the way towards the very end of the converging triangular trendlines. If this were to continue higher on the second or third C-Wave attempt, then the pattern would not be one of terminal consideration because it would have finished up well before the hypothetical tip - created by its own trendlines.
In this case, AAPL's horizontal triangle finishes at the convergence, then breaks a very key level support to the downside, closing below it on a weekly candle. At this point, I believe the weekly trend has changed, which has way more implications than it should for the rest of the market. This is due to the insane market cap of AAPL that keeps artificially expanding via FED corporate loan purchases, which then turn into stock splits, repurchases, etc. Is AAPL a great company? Yes. Does that mean AAPL should be included in every major index to help "stabilize things" even if these indices are categorically not supposed to represent the same area of commerce? NO! (in my humble opinion, that is.)
The reason I have this opinion is because it wrecks markets. You'll see what I mean when we start seeing entirely unrelated sectors start breaking down despite the particularly bullish environment that would otherwise propel these stocks higher in the near-term. It also very much undermines the idea of free markets when we all know that there is blatant manipulation being had on a market-wide scale everyday via all the basket programs, leverage, contract printing, etc. To account for this, I tagged many unrelated sector ETFs at the bottom of the idea for good measure.
In conclusion, since AAPL's apparent wave count is bearish on the weekly, points to a terminal triangle completion as of today and is representative of all completion indices at this point, I thought it relevant to share with you all in preparation for the new bear market.
Lastly - the Russian conflict occurred months after the trendline breaks and terminal triangle formation. Take what you will from this.
-The-Pig-AAPL
AAPLSPXIXICWW4500
SPYXBIXLUXLEXLFXLKXLVXLPZlecenie aktywne
Just took a put position for 155s next week. This is gonna fall and will bring down the indices as well.Maybe a -7.5% down day on the S&P today..
Transakcja zamknięta: osiągnięto wyznaczony cel
Target smashed. Now bullish.
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