CarpeMomentum

CarpeMomentum

It's now the 7th week Bitcoin fails to break the downward channel from it's last all-time high December 2017. Additionally it behaves similar to August 2018 (orange circle) when it was moving sideways while the expectation was that it would "finally" breakthrough . Instead it lost another 50% of it's value. Now it tripled from those lows around $3,000 so I am...

CarpeMomentum

After a disappointing price non-action last week Bitcoin is showing strength at the beginning of this week. BTC is still trying to establish a close above the downtrend channel. Let's be honest BTC has been expected by everybody to follow the predictions on price of the stock to flow model . With that it seems inevitable that BTC will crack the resistance level...

CarpeMomentum

I guess I was forcasting pretty well in my scenario 4 on March 12, 2020. Bitcoin was scared a lot of the black swan called Corona that day. Yesterday the Phoenix called Bitcoin as risen from the ashes again ready for the halving rally in the next weeks. However it is important for Bitcoin to break the $10,000 mark, better yet hit the $11,000 marker to turn on the...

CarpeMomentum

Forgive the cramped analysis however I wanted to show with the Ichimoku Cloud, the Keltner Channel and the SAR indicator were the DJI came from, was heading and may be heading. As the trends are not that clear yet on the weekly I used the daily chart. The Keltner channel has been crossed downward first, followed by the Ichimoku base and conversion line exiting the...

CarpeMomentum

The Dow Jones had recaptured the 50% Fib. retracement at $24,080. If it is able to hold on to this level during reporting season and can also recapture the $25,375 level 61,8% Fib. retracement I would starting to feel more neutral about this huge mess in front of us. For now the DJI appears to allow for a neutral investment strategy. My personal opinion is (this...

CarpeMomentum

Looking at the Dow Jones in the hope of the starting release of closedowns would mean 2 weeks of a technical correction 5% downturn during the reporting season, followed by a 15% uptick for two month.

CarpeMomentum

As in recent financial crisis we saw a rebound from the initial drop. Expect the DJI and overall the markets to now take a (deep) dive again. How far down? I would forecast total decline to 50% or even up to 80%. The measurements taken to supposedly prevent a catastrophy caused by SARS-CoV-2 will now bring an ensured financial crisis. The All-In Bubble is now...

CarpeMomentum

Credit Suisse says the US economy will shrink 33.5% next quarter, the biggest drop in history. The US economy shed 701,000 jobs in March, sending the unemployment rate to its sharpest one-month rise since 1975. The worst is yet to come after the initial shock triggered by COVID-19. I expect a lower low at 17.000 for the DJI and that is if we are lucky and somehow...

CarpeMomentum

Fibonacci retracements from the Dot.com Bubble, to the Real Estate Bubble and to todays Zero Interest Rate Bubble. Pick your landing zone or where do you think we need to land to heal the system and return to commercial caution behaviour in companies and in particular in government?

CarpeMomentum

Bitcoin (BTC) just lost a lot of reputation by giving in to the scare of the Black Swan called Corona. If Bitcoin was ever to be a safe haven in crisis this would have been the moment to proof it. That and all well wishers and fortune teller analyst can pack their bags. This story is no longer believeable. The only thing that would bring that narrative back is if...

CarpeMomentum

Many voices, much fear. I my view Bitcoin is testing the logarithmic support level at ~$7.850. If it holds this week I will continue in my scenario 3 and we shall see the upward trend picking up and the bulls keeping their control. If it fails then we will likely see the retest of the $6.000 level for support and stay in the overall current downward trend channel...

CarpeMomentum

As predicted in my scenario 3 Bitcoin (BTC) is on a steady upward motion and testing the $10,000 mark. It will tackle this hurdle this week and take aim at $11,000. If and when it breaks that barrier we are likely to see a continued parabolic move towards its all-time highs at $20,000. Bitcoin has broken out of the Keltner Channels upwards, so the momentum is in...

CarpeMomentum

As predicted Bitcoin has turned on it's rocket boosters in my scenario 3. We will see soon if this will lead to Bitcoin breaking out of the overall downward trend channel. Overall the crypto market is on fire. It sure feels like we are at the gate of an altcoin cycle and potentially new BTC highs. This week will tell if the direction holds.

CarpeMomentum

As forecasted in my scenario 3 recently the Bitcoin bulls managed to break out of the first downward channel trend. This week close will show if Bitcoin can maintain the level at and above 8,400 USD for launching the rockets and take aim for 11,000 USD the second downward trend channel to break or bounce off from.

CarpeMomentum

BTC is making moves to get ready to break the first barrier of the pressing downward channel. I am bravely turning long and anticipate the next upward ralley. So I created a scenario 3 on my continued prediction journey. Scenario 2 is still very much in the picture. The market has to make a move and with global markets in the red and war on the horizon it will tip...

CarpeMomentum

My short view is being confirmed strongly by the Bitcoin bears today. Of my two scenarios (see related ideas link) the downward scenario 2 is now confirmed. We can all only speculate how far the retracement is going to go. $5,700 seems very likely. Without strong market or buyer side signals we may even see the $3,215 level tested again. My crystal ball says we...

CarpeMomentum

As I stated Sept. 27, Bitcoin very much is in a clear downward trend on the USD weekly chart. Tellingly the recent massive breakout above the $10,000 range didn't hold on the weekly. The two scenarios are still intact. So either BTC will breakout of the triangle and downward trend or it will be stuck in winter mode and the bears will go hibernate BTC into and...

CarpeMomentum

Looking at past Fib retracements of Bitcoin it appears Bitcoin likes to retrace past gains almost fully (80%+) to come back stronger. The decline beginning of 2018 and 2014 show that impressively. There is a clear downward channel right now to be observed for Bitcoin if it does not break out of it soon, it may well be doomed for the $3,000 range again or even...