Bitcoin slides to near $121,000 but analysts say ‘Uptober’ sentiment intact
Bitcoin price fell near $121,000 on Friday after recording a new all-time high earlier in the week.
According to The Block's bitcoin price page, the world's largest cryptocurrency is down 0.64% in the past day, trading at $121,141. This shows a near 4% decline from its new all-time high of $126,080 recorded on Monday.
"Bitcoin’s pullback after the ATH looks like a pause rather than a pivot," said Justin d'Anethan, analyst and Head of Partnerships at Arctic Digital. "Short-term holders took profits, some leverage longs got liquidated but long-term supply hasn’t moved."
The crypto analyst also pointed out that spot crypto exchange-traded fund flows remain strong and exchange balances are at a six-year low. d'Anethan said that markets are currently moved by macro uncertainty, such as a stronger dollar, sticky yields and the lack of clarity from the Federal Reserve regarding future rate decisions.
The U.S. is also going through an extended period of partial government shutdown, which analysts have previously suggested acts as a tailwind for "hedge" assets such as gold and bitcoin. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell had sent out mixed signals regarding future rate cuts, CME's FedWatch Tool gives a 94.6% chance that the U.S. central bank will lower rates again at the end of the month.
Kronos Research CIO Vincent Liu said that the current market sentiment is "mixed but resilient," with long-term holders continuing to accumulate.
Analysts said the "Uptober" narrative is still intact, given the market structure holding up despite the recent price decline. So far, Bitcoin has gained 6.7% since the beginning of the month.
"Bitcoin has historically gained an average of 22% in October, with Ethereum typically adding around 5%, a pattern that fuels the 'Uptober' thesis," Liu said. "On-chain data shows continued accumulation and resilient positioning, but macro uncertainty means volatility will remain part of the equation."
Arctic's d'Anethan also said that his market predictions for October still lean bullish, but the move may be slower than traders might have expected.
"If we get a soft inflation print or dovish Fed pivot, BTC could break out again," d'Anethan said. "But even without that, the structure is healthy: low leverage, strong spot interest, and plenty of sidelined capital. Uptober doesn’t necessarily need a melt-up to deliver."
Meanwhile, Min Jung, research associate at Presto Research, mentioned that the market currently lacks a dominant headline or narrative.
"For now, traders should keep an eye on broader economic data and policy headlines, as these will likely set the tone for crypto in the near term," Jung said.
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