D.R. Horton Q4 Preview: Is the Housing Cycle Near a Turn?

D.R. Horton DHI reports fiscal fourth quarter 2025 results before the market opens on October 28. Analysts are projecting EPS of $3.27, down 17% YoY, and revenue near $9.4 billion, a drop of about 6%. The stock is up roughly 12% so far this year. D.R. Horton's shares received a boost after Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio)'s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a stake in the homebuilder, but they have since given back those gains after peaking on September 8.

Last quarter, D.R. Horton posted $9.2 billion of revenue, down about 7% from a year earlier, and EPS of $3.36 versus $4.10 a year ago. Homes closed fell 4% to 23,160. Management highlighted pressure on closing volumes, elevated incentives, and margin compression. These conditions have defined much of the year.

This quarter is about whether margins can steady and demand can hold in a high-rate, affordability-strained market, as mortgage rates remain elevated. Investors will be watching home closings, average selling price, cancellation trends, and the gross margin on home sales. Last quarter's gross margin was about 21.8%. Any color on where management sees it heading next will be critical.

With the weak housing backdrop still intact, the market wants signs of a recovery. Management's commentary on the environment heading into fiscal 2026 will be important. A clear strategy to manage incentives, defend margin, and navigate the affordability squeeze could reinforce confidence. If not, the shares could slip back into wait-and-see.