Long

Zaktualizowano

Road to 12k - A Close Up

Here ya go...

Uwaga

I'm looking for a complementary structure to the one on the left to be developed, after a period of sideways action. The side ways action would be peaks 15-20 of a smaller 3 Peaks and Domed House fractal, the subsequent larger peaks would be the Domed house, the correction after the Dommed house is completion would finish the pattern. The completed pattern then becomes peaks 15-20 of a bigger 3 Peaks and Dommed Housed pattern.

Uwaga

If we have already formed peaks 15-20, pictured in the circles, then it's a straight line up to the Domed House, which should top out around the 9k - 9.2k area. Now, we might have a few more stops with sideways action because there are fractal of other sizes that are still developing 15-20 as we climb up. But for the fractal pattern that we are concerned about at the moment, those peaks are completed, so the pattern will have to continue out to form the domed house, which some come in slightly higher than the complimentary 3 peaks to the left of the pattern. I know it can get confusing when working with fractals, but long story short, I'm confident that we are going to break 9k, at minimum before we see that correction:

Uwaga

Just remember that the Domed House pattern always ends with a drop off. That drop off has a slight pause where the price tries to recover but ultimately fails to do so.

Uwaga

Because of the nature of the fractal patterns we're working with, and the fact that all of them will need to come to conclusion at some point, the exact height of the Domed house and the size of the drop would be pure guesses. The only gauge we have is what took place on the left side of the mirror image we are creating, as well as our observation that the structures created on the right side, so far at least, have been relatively smaller and at a longer time frame.

Uwaga

A little light reading on the pattern itself:

thepatternsite.com/3peaksdome.html

Uwaga

backing up our theory is the formation of this oddly shaped Inverse H&S pattern. You can see that the completion of the right shoulder coincides with a sizeable jump upwards. The general rule of thumb for Inverse H&S patterns is to expect an increase in the price as measured from the neckline to the tip of the head. In this case, around 11%. When I place that 11% marker at the point at which the shoulder completes, it brings me squarely to around 9k, where we would have expected our Domed House to develope.

Uwaga

This is how the pattern is petering out on the 15min chart

Uwaga

we're only looking at the 15min chart for confirmation of the pattern. We're not looking to trade withinside of those peaks and domes. The size of the pattern isn't always relative, and you can get strange looking formation that still technically fit the pattern but are not at all what you expected. You want to keep your trades limited to the 4hr + charts. Trading smaller time scales is a recipe for disaster.

Uwaga

There is a possibility that we drop down to 7k to create the Adam bottom of the competing Big W pattern. Both patterns are unfolding at the same time. Either case we are still on an uptrend. And, an Adam bottom, should it be created, bounces back immediately, and will probably be only a doji on either the 4hr or day chart.

Uwaga

if we drop down to 7k, it would happen after a third domed house is created - which in turn completes the bearish three drives pattern.

Uwaga

aka the last one pictured above wouldn't happen, and we'd take a nose dive.

Uwaga

we're coming back up, but we WILL be taking a nose dives after this peak is created. I'm just not sure how far we will drop

Uwaga

ETH gives us a clearer picture free of noise:

Uwaga

RSI confirms the bearish setup

Uwaga

this scenario seems reasonable to me:

Uwaga

I am 80% sure that this is what is happening:

Uwaga

close up of the action inside of the handle:

Uwaga

both the ones up top are ETH, BTC will differ slightly but follow the same pattern

Uwaga

Note the upward slanting W that I expect to appear:

Uwaga

Here you can see the downward slanting version on the other side of the cup

Uwaga

we are at the start of the left shoulder of an inverse H&S pattern, which will develop along these lines:

Uwaga

I know I've said this before, but a lot of people lose money during sideways situations like this. This will most likely go on for days if not a week +, and we are looking at MINIMUM 5% fluctuations on either side. If you are trading on anything more than 2x margin, you are going to get rekt.

Uwaga

When the sideways action comes to an end, it will have formed a gigantic bull flag.

Uwaga

forgot to factor in that the whole thing is tilting upwards.

Uwaga

tilting downwards or upwards is the difference between being a bump on the way down, or being at the start of making a new all time high. We want to be tilting upwards. But if we were tilting downwards, as you can see from the intersection of the trend lines, we get knock down right here.

Uwaga

To put it another way. If we are tilting upwards, we are in a 3 Peaks and Domed House Pattern. If we are tilting downwards, we are in a Domed House and 3 Peaks Pattern.

Uwaga

confirmation of upwards tilt only happens if we hit 9900+ before getting knocked back down to where we are now.

Uwaga

we want to hit that 10k milestone with minimal downswings, nothing more than -200 at a time. The upswings should be a straight shot up on the 4hr+ scale, 1-2 candles each time.

Uwaga

if we fall any further than we are now, we fall out of your upwards channel

Uwaga

or at minimum we have a left direct line up

Uwaga

if we bounce right back, we have confirmation 1) that we are in a narrow upwards blue channel, and 2) the black lines will be providing support during any subsequent drops

Uwaga

I want to point out here that those two black support lines when extended, lies just above the bear trap set last year before we went parabolic... should those supports hold, that is a very encouraging sign.

Uwaga

if the blue channel holds, and that is a big if, the projected date to hit 10k is 4/16

Uwaga

what if we make only a minor correction at 10k and do not fall out of the blue channel? Funny you should ask...:

Uwaga

it would depend entirely on you not getting above or below either the green channel - which is basically straight up to 16k, or the blue channel, where we take a little break after 14k.

Uwaga

by you I mean bitcoin :)

Uwaga

we're at the crossroads of picking one or the other

Uwaga

we're about to break in one direction or other

Uwaga

this coin really really really wants to be inside of that green channel

Uwaga

chances are we are not stopping until 7600, we may even hit the bottom of the blue channel

Uwaga

if my assessment is correct we're going down to 7200, maybe even 6800, then we are going bounce back super fast to where we are now, leaving a pointy bottom.

Uwaga

if we bounce back right here... we confirm that we are tilting up

Uwaga

we are jumping straight up to 9000. The Big W has just completed.

Uwaga

10k actually.., and hopefully you guys understand that "straight" is a relative term, here's an example of what the Big W looks like, we've just passed the confirmation line: thepatternsite.com/bigw.html

Uwaga

this also means that all of my bitcoin charts are more or less accurate, since I drew them to incorporate both the Big W and the 3 peaks and Domed House. So I'll be posting fewer updates, just follow the chart, the differences are just going to be a matter of degree.

Uwaga

since I can feel you guys freaking out. Here's the Big W playing out on the 5min chart

Uwaga

We're inside of that triangle right now on the 5min. But on the 4hr we are at the breakout line. Bonus points if you can identify the same pattern on the 4hr chart.

Uwaga

Here's what the above looks like on the 4hr (I'm not talking about the pattern)

chillax, we're on an uptrend!

Uwaga

Here's the 5mins again, so you can get your bearing:

Uwaga

see how it jumped up? now, can you identify the same pattern on the original day chart above?

Uwaga

fractals, of the same pattern repeating to create bigger versions of itself

Uwaga

are you still looking at the 5min chart? because you are about to see what's about to unfold on the day chart. fractals only work for so long, there are too many elements at play, so don't get carried away :)

Uwaga

The 5min chart also tells me we are in the 3 Peaks and Domed House Pattern

Uwaga

I'm just going to leave this 5min chart here so you can compare against the day chart later...

Uwaga

we are still trying to break out of the triangle we've been stuck in since yesterday

Uwaga

The bearish divergence we've had since we've entered the triangle is diminishing, this attempt should be successful

Uwaga

you can see that we had a similar divergence before we entered the triangle, with the oval being the result

Uwaga

so I think we're about to see a big spike up

Uwaga

As you can see from the picture, we are still inside of the symmetrical triangle. Fortunately, because of the 1k jump that got us to that triangle it is forming into a very large Bull Pennant. Good news for us when we break out of it.

What I found to be EVEN more interesting, is the shape that's taking place inside of the triangle, it is most definitely a version of the 3 Peaks and Domed House pattern. Now do you see the other oval to the left. I mentioned earlier that I believe that BTC was going to be creating complimentary mirror structures as it travels upwards, and that I believe that whole structure will be tilting upwards. Well, I how no idea how tilted it would end up being. If you take the square area to be the center of the structure, and the two ovals to be complementary, that's a very steep angle upwards. So for the Inverse Head and Shoulders formations that are created on our drive up, they will have a very shart upwards angle, which generally means higher jumps once they complete, they say were they at a down-sloping angle. So I know it seems like a long time to wait, but be patient for went we make it out of the triangle, it is sure to be explosive!

Uwaga

so many typos in the morning, apologies!

Uwaga

oh, and how that you know the relative angle at which we climb, and the mirror like nature of the strutures we create, we should be able to figure out the next major stop on our way up

Uwaga

oops just put up an update on the comments section

Uwaga

given the comment below, I think we can be fairly certain, based on the overlay, that we will be escaping the triangle with the next run upwards. Also, note, again, that breaking free of the triangle will bring explosive jump upwards in the range of $500-1000 bump up in price.

Uwaga

based on resistance lines created on the way down, I would say the pause point will be 8400. But as I indicate above, I wouldn't expect a major correction until we bump up against 10k.

Uwaga

I'll also point out here how the fractal patterns of the 3 Peaks and Domed house has, and will be playing out. As one would expect the pattern is repeating with each jump upwards creation a taller version of the Domed House. With the miniature version of that structure that has formed, is forming, the pattern is going Domed House, 3 Peaks, and then Domed House, this indication is going to be important as we get closer to 12k.

Uwaga

Now everybody has their own strategy and techniques when it comes to TA. Obviously, my particular angle on things is patterns and fractals in particular. I do use indicators but only has a way to validate the pattern that I'm seeing, not the other way around. So while we're waiting for the jump out of the triangle, I'll go over some of the patterns and techniques that I think are going to be useful moving forward. So, let's go over the overlay again. If you look at 2 images above, the overlay is the rightside oval on top of the left side over. In image is reversed. Here it is side by side so you can get a better comparison:

Uwaga

if you are trying to get your bearings, here is a matching W pattern to adjust your eyes to the pattern

Uwaga

now again without the W

Uwaga

that W shape is actually one in a series of Ws that show up in the Big W pattern, which we are about to complete on the 15min chart. This is significant because we are close in terms of the fractal pattern completing on the 15min chart, as we are in the 4hr and daily chart. Here are the specific elements of the Big W, I'll draw them both on the 15 candles and on the overlay:

Uwaga

The main elements of the Big W are an Adam and Eve Double Bottom, followed by a Valley (size can vary), followed by a symmetrical triangle. Then the breakout is confirmed once the price moves higher than the peak of the middle valley that was formed. As you can see this pattern is initiated by the completion of the 3 Peaks and Domed House Pattern. That pattern ends in a drop down from the height of the Domed House, with a slight pause in the decline making another peak. For us, that peak is creating the middle point in the W as prices try to recover during the decline. So what we have are 2 fractal patterns (there may be more but these are the two we'll be working with). I'll also note here that after the drop, these patterns unfold in unison, with the symmetical triangle becoming points 10 to 14 in the 3 Peaks and Domed House Pattern. I realize that trying to keep fractal s straight can get really confusing, so here's the same pattern laying out on the 4 hour chart:

Uwaga

as you can see the 3 Peaks and Domed House/Big W patterns are actually one in the same, when taken in the context. Additionally, the actual breakout line doesn't occur until after the current bump up, which is one of the reasons for my firm belief that we will hit 10k before any kind of a correction.

Uwaga

Now, that's the formation that formed after our lowest point - post crash - was created. There is however a bigger version of the same fractal

Uwaga

Remember house I said the decent from the Domed House always creates a mini peak before crashing down. Well, the bigger Big W pattern starts at the peak, which was back in the beginning of January

Uwaga

Now you can see from that image, where the breakout line of that Big W pattern would be - 12k. For that Fractal, the symmetical triangle has also finished. This means that the Fractal with a breakout of 10k and breakout of 12k both finished their symmetrical triangles at the same time, and we are just waiting for things to go straight up, without much of a break in between, any corrections that do happen will be minor, when viewed from the scale of the actual fractal patterns themselves.

Uwaga

to conclude, I bring you to where we are currently in the 5min chart:

Uwaga

See the red candle that just formed? that's the correction I expect to see at 10k and 12k. Now we're going to swing back up

Uwaga

working with fractals can be really hard. You can really never be sure if they represent something to come, or are a replay of what's already happened. Here is a side by side comparison of what is happening on the 5min and 4hr charts:

Uwaga

the bottom triangle and bull pennant has not formed on the 5min yet, let's see how it plays out.

Uwaga

well, based on this fractal... we're coming down to the 7000 level right now. And it will be swift, like a doji...

Uwaga

did I mention that fractals can get confusing? we might be creating the pennant of the bull flag now...

Uwaga

I think I mention in one of these posts not to trade outside the 4hr+ charts and to keep margin to a minimum, yea, keep to that...

Uwaga

when in doubt, go back to the original chart... here's the chart on a 4hr scale

Uwaga

you see we've created the two peaks that I thought we would, then comes a jump up to create the Domed House. I'm not sure if you can make other people's charts yours. I have to keep having to go back to the original, since I make all sorts of changes in the interim. I click on the share button on the original chart and click make it mine. I couldn't tell you what the thought process was behind the peaks when I made it, but if I published it I probably thought it through to the point of completion. In my comments you are listening to my thoughts as they happen live, I don't call myself rainman for nothin' :p

Uwaga

scale might be different but take note of the shape, if I'm right there should be a high degree of correlation with the shape of the movement.

Uwaga

lift off imminent.

Uwaga

I know people are predicting corrections along the way. And I'll be honest and say that's what I thought too, it would only make logical sense that those left holding the bag would be selling on the way up. But that's not what the chart is telling me... The chart is telling me that the biggest correction we would see is around 5%, and that it's going to be a fairly straight shot up to 10k. When I look at the chart, the whole contraption is tilting at an extreme angle upwards.

Uwaga

we're creating another wedge on the 5min, expect another bump up, just not as dramatic

Uwaga

the ETH chart is telling me that we're going to get a big jump up. See the shape inside the oval, doesn't it look like a completed version of the shape in the square? Fractals...

Uwaga

note the shape inside of the square in BTC

Uwaga

That's on the 15min chart. Now look at what's taking shape on the 4hr chart for XLM:

Uwaga

XLM is about to go parabolic

Uwaga

as is BTC, but on a smaller scale

Uwaga

Inside the square is mini-me. I'm sure you can recognize the fractal pattern on the 4hr chart that it correlates to. Right now we are pausing to create the pennant on the 5-15min scale, that will eventually correlate to the one we form once we hit 10k.

Uwaga

we are tilting hella upwards, with the symmetrical triangle in yellow as our base/focal point, like parabolic territory... honestly, I could foresee this happening on the chart, but I really didn't think it would be possible...

Uwaga

To explain further, you see that the area in the square appears to be a complementary shape to the region directly across from it to the right. However, it is not. The square is actually a miniature version of the area in the oval. And the line that connects the oval to that square, that's our trend line up.

Uwaga

we went from a symmetrical triangle to a descending wedge. The longer we stay in this wedge, the stronger the upside break at the exit point.

Uwaga

and if you're thinking the descending wedge appears to be forming a bull pennant, you would be correct.

Uwaga

I'll say again for those who haven't been reading all my comments. There will be no major (meaning more than 5%) correction before we hit 10k.

Uwaga

we've exited the triangle

Uwaga

all lot of people are talking about price manipulation, shorts being squeezed, there's no volume, blah blah blah blah blah, ignore everything, (I mean pay attention and do your homework but don't rely on any particular source). Forex, theoretically, works best in a free market, and cryptos are about as close to that as you're going to get. A free market, ironically enough, is ripe for manipulation, and all that should be baked right into the patterns you see on the chart. Ignore the FUD, FOMO, and whatever else and try to listen to what the chart is telling you.

Uwaga

if you have a why in your head and try to find the patterns that fit that, believe me you'll find it, whether it's accurate or not.

Uwaga

escape out of a triangle is generally followed by throwback, see the oval for an example:

Uwaga

the bad news is that that drop made our triangle longer, the good news is we'll probably exit right here:

Uwaga

does this inverse H&S inside of a descending triangle setup look familiar to anybody else?

Uwaga

the right shoulder could extend further, but now we're working with 2 patterns, and I think chances are slim that both would fail. Even if the Inv H&S were too fail, as in the price comes down below the tip of the head, it could still bounce off the bottom of the triangle and finish that pattern. But I think both patterns will complete:

Uwaga

This will be our 3rd attempt to break out of the price zone, and our 2nd attempt to break out of the triangle:

Uwaga

We are still firmly within the confines of the right shoulder, so should the right shoulder finish, 2 bullish patterns will converge to finish at the same time, an Inverse H&S and a Descending Wedge. This generally means a higher boost upwards.

Uwaga

That first Attempt #3 is supposed to be #1 :D

Uwaga

I'll just add to those questioning why? Why are these patterns working, what is driving them? My answer is any number of answers could be satisfactory as long as it makes sense to you. To try to figure out what of any number of variables are impacting the price and to what degree and along what timeline would be an impossible task, right? Well technical no, if the theory behind forex is correct and all those variables are baked right into the price movements on a chart. The why isn't necessarily so important, I'm sure someone will come up with a believable enough explanation after the fact. What we're concerned with is does the chart give us any clues as to where the price is going to do next. And to answer that we try to decipher repeating patterns that show up. I'll grant you though, having a reasonable why lets you sleep better at night...

Uwaga

lucky #3

Uwaga

this is what I expect will happen in the next few days:

Uwaga

you guys are no fun to play with. I'm going to put up one more update then go radio silent until I see more activity: BTC to go up by 10% in the next 24hours.

Uwaga

I know I said no more comments, but I'm going to paste here a previous comment, just to make things clear. You can scroll up and see for yourself:

"I know people are predicting corrections along the way. And I'll be honest and say that's what I thought too, it would only make logical sense that those left holding the bag would be selling on the way up. But that's not what the chart is telling me... The chart is telling me that the biggest correction we would see is around 5%, and that it's going to be a fairly straight shot up to 10k. When I look at the chart, the whole contraption is tilting at an extreme angle upwards."

Uwaga

back to radio silence ;)

Uwaga

are we approaching the 24th hour?

Uwaga

Ok, ok, ok, I might have been an hour or two off, but seriously I was the only one predicting a hugh increase right? And, you guys are the only ones who have a clue how batshit crazy this run is going to be... doesn't that deserve more likes?!?!?!?

Uwaga

It's going to be a good week:

Rainman2

Wyłączenie odpowiedzialności

Informacje i publikacje przygotowane przez TradingView lub jego użytkowników, prezentowane na tej stronie, nie stanowią rekomendacji ani porad handlowych, inwestycyjnych i finansowych i nie powinny być w ten sposób traktowane ani wykorzystywane. Więcej informacji na ten temat znajdziesz w naszym Regulaminie.