Analysis of Gold (XAUUSD) Cycle Considering Thanksgiving Holiday

30 lis

Analysis of Gold (XAUUSD) Cycle Considering Thanksgiving Holiday Impact

New York Session (Thursday)

What Happened:

• Price peaked at 2649 and dropped to a low of 2621 during the New York session, characterized by limited activity due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
• A sharp sell-off occurred, indicating institutional pressure.

Institutional Behavior:

• Liquidity Grab: The downward movement aimed to trigger stop-loss orders below key support levels.
• Position Accumulation: Institutions exploited the selling pressure to accumulate buy orders at discounted levels.
• Low Volume Impact: The holiday significantly reduced trading volumes, giving institutions more leverage to control market direction.

Key Notes:

• Support at 2621 served as a critical liquidity zone that attracted institutional and retail buyers.

Tokyo Session (Friday)

What Happened:

• Price rebounded from the low of 2621, marking a gradual recovery.
• The session saw a steady upward trajectory, supported by institutional buying.

Highest Price:

• The price reached a new peak of 2666, surpassing Thursday’s high of 2649.
• This breach indicates institutions targeting liquidity pools above previous resistance levels.

Volume Analysis:

• An increase in trading volume as the price neared 2666 confirms institutional participation in the upward movement.

London Session (Friday)

What Happened:

• The price moved sideways around 2666, reflecting consolidation.

Implications:

• Re-Accumulation: Institutions used this range-bound behavior to prepare for the next significant move.
• Support Maintenance: The price remained above 2650, a sign of sustained buying interest.

Institutional Behavior:

• Leaving the price around 2666 without breaking higher hints at a strategic setup for the upcoming New York session or the following week.

New York Session (Friday)

What Happened:

• The price closed at 2650 after attempting to break past 2666.
• Despite testing higher levels, the session failed to establish a new high, signaling potential retracement or continuation next week.

Volume Analysis:

• The session experienced a volume spike, showcasing institutional efforts to capitalize on liquidity accumulated above 2666.

Psychology of Market Movements

New York Session (Thursday):

• Liquidity Sweep: The price targeted stop-loss levels at 2621, causing retail traders to close positions prematurely.
• Positioning Opportunity: Institutions leveraged this liquidity to build long positions.

Tokyo Session (Friday):

• Breakout of Resistance: The price surpassed Thursday’s high (2649) to target 2666, triggering breakout traders and liquidity above.
• Controlled Rise: Institutions maintained control, ensuring the price didn’t stray too far from their intended levels.

London Session:

• Institutional Control: Sideways movement around 2666 reflects deliberate preparation for future price movements, either upward or downward.

New York Session:

• Resistance Test: If the price breaks 2666 with strong momentum, it could target higher levels such as 2670-2675.
• Pullback Possibility: Failure to sustain above 2666 might lead to a retest of lower levels (2650 or 2621).

Key Levels

Support:

1. 2621: A strong institutional support level formed during Thursday’s New York session.
2. 2650: A newly established support during Friday’s London session.

Resistance:

1. 2666: The peak reached during Friday’s Tokyo session, representing immediate resistance.
2. 2670-2675: Potential targets if the price continues its upward trajectory.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Bullish Scenario:

• If the price breaks above 2666 with strong momentum and high volume, expect targets around 2670-2675.

Bearish Scenario:

• If the price falls below 2650 or 2621 with significant selling pressure, it could retest lower levels.

Session Monitoring:

1. Upcoming London and New York sessions: Critical for confirming continuation or reversal.
2. Focus on 2666 and 2621 as decisive levels to gauge the next move.

This detailed analysis incorporates the dynamics of liquidity, session psychology, and institutional behavior to provide a comprehensive outlook on the gold market.