(CPI) in September 2024 expected to increase 2.3%

10 paź

The median estimate (yr-over-yr, now no longer seasonally adjusted) for the client rate index (CPI) for the month of September 2024 is 2.3%.

If 2.3% is the real yr-over-yr growth withinside the CPI, it'll mark the smallest growth withinside the quantity because February 2021 (1.7%).

The August 2024 client rate index expanded through 2.five% (yr-over-yr, now no longer seasonally adjusted), in comparison to the median estimate of 2.6%. Over the beyond 12 months, the growth withinside the CPI has passed the median estimate in five months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen quick of the median estimate in five months. It is thrilling to notice that real CPI quantity has been under the estimate over the last 4 months (May 2024 via August 2024). Over the beyond five years (60 months), the growth withinside the CPI has passed the median estimate 52% of the time, matched the median estimate 15% of the time, and fallen quick of the median estimate 33% of the time.

The median estimate of 2.3% is primarily based totally on 17 estimates gathered through FactSet. These CPI estimates variety from a low of 2.20% to a excessive of 2.40%, for a variety of 20 bps. This unfold is smaller than the trailing 12-month common unfold among the low and excessive estimate of 27 bps and smaller than the five-yr (60 month) common unfold among the low and excessive estimate forty nine bps.

The median estimate (yr-over-yr, now no longer seasonally adjusted) for the client rate index apart from food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.2%.

Tomorrow (October 10) the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will launch the CPI and Core CPI numbers for September.


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10 paź

Note

The Fed has just released the minutes of its September 17-18 meeting, which noted that the pace of future reductions will not be determined by the initial reduction (the Fed just reduced interest rates by 0.5% last month). . Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she wants smaller cuts ahead, given lingering inflation risks and significant uncertainties about the economic outlook.