XAUUSD Sell Setup: Wave 4 Retracement Expected After Wave 3 Peak at 3032.92
(Elliott Wave + Fibonacci Analysis)
Trade Rationale:
Wave Structure:
Wave 3 has likely completed at 3032.92 (projected via 261.8% Fibonacci extension of Wave 1).
Wave 4 is now anticipated as a corrective pullback, typically retracing 23.6%-50% of Wave 3.
Technical Confluence:
Price is at a major resistance zone (Wave 3 high).
Bearish divergence on RSI/MACD suggests weakening momentum.
Fibonacci retracement levels align with Elliott Wave rules for Wave 4.
Trade Plan:
Entry Zone: 3032–3040 (short on bearish reversal confirmation: pin bars, rejection candles, or breakdown below 3032).
Targets:
TP1: 2744.89 (23.6% retracement of Wave 3)
TP2: 2565.98 (38.2% retracement)
TP3: 2421.75 (50% retracement – strongest support)
Stop Loss: 3080 (above Wave 3 high to allow volatility).
Key Chart Levels:
Support: 2744 (23.6%) → 2565 (38.2%) → 2421 (50%)
Resistance: 3032 (Wave 3 peak) → 3080 (invalidates bearish bias if breached).