XAU / USD – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES

8 sie 2023

This is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED WEEKLY with comments and trade ideas.

| This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions |


In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the > XAUUSD <

• We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months.

• As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below.

• This post will be under a similar name, which is as follows: "XAU / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES" (Includes: entries, stop loss & take profit levels)

• Once published, it will be added as a comment, and when this post is saved, you will receive a notification about it.

How do I save an idea so that I receive a notification when it’s updated?




MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)

• The all-time high from 2011 has been attempted to turn into support since 2020, which has been unsuccessful to date.

• At this moment, we are above this all-time high, running it for a retest.

• A 3-year RANGE has formed under this POI, which will serve as additional support.

• We are also in a downtrend channel whose upper trend line continues to be contested.

• Momentum indicators in the weekly TFs and higher are not meaningful; however, a small bearish divergence can be seen in the daily TFs.

• There are a lot of support areas standing in the way of a serious sell-off, which would have to be broken through first - both scenarios can thus not be ruled out | LONG / SHORT.

Z - You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one - Z

| ZielIstDieAutarkie |

If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much.

Thank you and happy trading!

Z

8 sie 2023

Uwaga

1-MONTH - INTERVAL


2-WEEK - INTERVAL


1-WEEK - INTERVAL


1-DAY - INTERVAL

13 sie 2023

Uwaga

WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting 
= note that the candle close was below the close of the last HL, which underlines the selling pressure and could mean the initiation of a further down-sale.
 
> The "CLOSE" occurred below the 2011 ATH (1921.070), which now serves as resistance.
> The MTF trend channel midline, continues to serve as support and achieved several reactions in the past.
> We experience additional support from the sideways channel, which has existed since 2020 and whose upper support line is at 1905.00 USD.
 
The following "FIBONACCI-LEVEL" of the downward movement is still pending to be worked off:
= 0.75 - 0.786 (1866.965 - 1857.866 USD)
= 0.88 (1834.316 USD)
= 1.618 (1836.952 USD)
 
! ATTENTION - the visually displayed FIBs (0.618; 0.65; 0.328) are for orientation purposes only and have already been processed in the past!
 
 
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" below serves as additional support.
> The MA (50, 100, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20) - serve as resistance.
 
> The MACD indicator confirms the negative momentum.
> The RSI indicator confirms the negative momentum.
 
 
1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)

 
OVERVIEW

20 sie 2023

Uwaga

WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= it should be noted that the subordinate market structure was broken - which allows further room to fall.

> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred in the HTF sideways trend channel, whose upper trendline served as support and is already confirmed by the market as resistance in the INTRA-DAY.
= for this reason, one can expect a run-up to the trend channel trend line in the INTRA-DAY and depending on the INTRA-DAY reaction, the down-sale continues or is interrupted.
> The next HTF support is the WEEK DEMAND zone and individual MAs, which are mentioned in the following lines.
> From the current situation, I expect another ab-sale.


SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.75-0.786 (1866.965 - 1857.866 USD) | ITD = 1.618 (1836.952 USD)
- MA | 50; 100; 200 (1846,500 - 1864,500 USD)
- POI | 1850,000 & 1870,000

RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (1918,091 USD)
- MA | 5; 8; 20 (1934,000 USD)
- MSB | HTF = HH/11 (1921,070)

INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bearish trend, suggesting continued negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed below the 25% line, showing very strong bearish momentum.


1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)


(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)

27 sie 2023

Uwaga

WEEK - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH

> The candle formed a "BULLISH ENGULFING"
= this indicates a temporary trend reversal.

> The "CLOSING PRICE" occurred above the HTF sideways trend channel, whose upper trend line served as resistance and is already confirmed by the market as support in the INTRA-DAY.
= for this reason, we can expect a bullish continuation in INTRA-DAY until the next significant resistance areas are reached.
> All these arguments, which speak for a trend reversal - we still closed below the "Higher High" of 2011 (1921.070), which is still to be interpreted bearish.
> The next HTF resistance is the WEEKLY SUPPLY zone, short-term Mas and the overriding 0.328 FIB.


SUPPORTS
- FIB | HTF = 0.75-0.88 (1866.965 - 1834.316 USD) | ITD = 1.618 (1836.952 USD)
- MA | 50; 100 (1848.971–1868.635 USD)
- POI | 1850,000 & 1870,000

RESISTANCE
- FIB | HTF = 0.328 (1942.916 USD) | ITD = 0.618 - 0.65 (1947.755 - 1951.056 USD)
- MA | 5; 8; 20 (1924,000–1955,000 USD)
- MSB | HTF = HH/11 (1921,070)

INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues its bearish trend, suggesting continued negative momentum.
- The RSI indicator has crossed below the 40% line, showing rising momentum.


1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)


(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)

3 wrz 2023

Uwaga

WEEK - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH

> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= note that the candle closes with a strong wick, which underlines the selling pressure.

> The "CLOSE" occurred above the 2011 ATH (1921.070), which now serves as support.
> The candle close occurred in the HTF downtrend channel (turquoise), which thus continues to play a role as resistance.
> We experience additional support from the sideways channel, which has existed since 2020 and whose upper support line is at 1905.00 USD.


SUPPORTS
- FIB | ITD = 0.328 - 0.88 (1930.428 - 1892.938 points)
- MA | 5; 8 (1934.727- 1920.129 USD)
- POI | 1925,000 & 1912,500 & 1903,000

RESISTANCE
- FIB | ITD = 0.75 - 0.88 (1961.408 - 1974.948 USD)
- MA | 20 (1951.686 USD)
- POI | 1960,000
- MSB | HTF = LH/23 (1987,530)

INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues to confirm the bearish trend but could change its direction.
> The RSI indicator is above the 50% line, indicating a neutral zone.


1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)


(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)

5 wrz 2023

Uwaga

MONTH - CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> The candle did not form a highlighting formation
= note that the candle close has an extreme shadow, highlighting the buying pressure & despite this, the candle has no wick.

> The candle broke back into the HTF downtrend channel, again rendering last month's breakout moot.
> The Higher High from 2011 (1921.070) serves as the next very strong support and should show a reaction in the (Intraday / Weekly).
> If the Higher High fails to withstand selling pressure, the HTF sideways trend channel comes into play next and will provide significant resistance.


1 MONTH = 1 WEEK x Four (Price Action)

17 wrz 2023

Uwaga

WEEKS - CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH

> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle close.

> The "CLOSE" occurred above the 2011 ATH (1921.070), which now serves as support.
> The candle close occurred in the HTF downtrend channel (turquoise), which thus continues to play a role as resistance.
> We experience additional support from the sideways channel, which has been in place since 2020 and whose upper support line is at 1905.00 USD and has been confirmed as support.


SUPPORTS
- The prominent supports can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.

RESISTANCES
- The prominent resistances can be seen in the following chart image.
- If there are any questions regarding this, please ask them in the comments.

INDICATORS
- The MACD indicator continues to confirm the bearish trend, but could change direction.
> The RSI indicator is at the 50% line, indicating a neutral zone.


1 WEEK = 1 DAY x Five (Price Action)


(FIB = Fibonacci | MA = Moving Average | POI = Point of Interest | MSB = Market Structure Break)