GOLD fell slightly after reaching initial target, FOMC, Powell

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XAUUSD decreased slightly after a significant recovery period, at the Asian trading session on July 31, gold decreased slightly from the Fibonacci level of 0.382% to 2,405USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of about 0.25% on the day.

Middle East News
On the evening of July 30 local time, an Israeli drone attacked a Hezbollah target in the southern suburbs of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. It is known that the drone fired 3 missiles, causing a building to collapse.
Currently, attacks in the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital have left 3 people dead and 74 others injured.
The Israeli military announced it killed a top Hezbollah commander in an airstrike in Beirut on Tuesday in retaliation for a cross-border rocket attack three days ago.
As sent to readers in the weekly edition, new points are emerging in the Middle East situation, and escalating geopolitical risks are always a potential motivating support for shelter demand. safe.

Pay attention to the FOMC and Jerome Powell
The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting ends Wednesday's trading session, with markets expecting the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged but could signal policy easing as early as September.
At 01:00 Hanoi time on Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision, at 01:30 the same day, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy.

Investors will need to closely scrutinize the Fed's policy statement and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for any information that supports expectations of the first rate cut in September.

Previously, on July 15, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a dovish signal during an interview at an event at the Economic Club of Washington. Powell said second-quarter economic data gives policymakers more confidence that inflation is falling toward the Fed's 2% target. The comments could pave the way for interest rate cuts in the near future.
At that time, Powell indicated that he would not wait until inflation reached the 2% target to cut interest rates, because the impact of monetary policy has a lag, and keeping interest rates too high for a long time will cause problems. Excessive inhibition for the economy.
He further explained that if we wait until inflation reaches the 2% target to cut interest rates, we may have to wait too long because the tightening monetary policy is currently being applied, or the current tightening policy will still continue. impact and can push the inflation rate below 2%.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
Although gold has surpassed the original price level of 2,400 USD, after reaching the initial target level, please pay attention to the weekly publication at 2,408 USD, the price point of the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382%, and the upward momentum. The price of gold is also limited by this level.

In the immediate future, keeping above the original price of 2,400 USD will be a positive signal for gold. But for gold prices to qualify for a longer bull run it needs to break above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level then target around $2,437.

In the short term, gold will be supported by the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and the lower edge of the price channel.

During the day, the trend of gold prices is providing the conditions for a bullish outlook and notable technical points are listed as follows.
Support: 2,400 – 2,390 – 2,385USD
Resistance: 2,408 – 2,437USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2434 - 2432

⚰️SL: 2438

⬆️TP1: 2427
⬆️TP2: 2422

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2387 - 2389

⚰️SL: 2383

⬆️TP1: 2394
⬆️TP2: 2399

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For the Forex market, the July meeting coincided with the period when the market was pricing in a very sharp reduction in interest rates in the absence of a clear hawkish result to support the USD's increase. Therefore, this could be a rather bland event. This is especially true if the meeting follows JPMorgan's baseline scenario, with slight adjustments to the guidance in the statement, and will not elaborate on the prospect of lowering interest rates in the future other than September.

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Pending home sales in the US rose 4.8% to 74.3 in June, reflecting increases in all four major regions. The increase far exceeded estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The gauge is pulling away from record lows in data dating back to 2001 as the housing market tries to escape a prolonged downturn. Mortgage interest rates have dropped somewhat recently, encouraging more homeowners to list their properties.

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🔴Final US Manufacturing PMI Data Released

According to the data, the final reading of the Manufacturing PMI was 49.6 points in July, slightly higher than market expectations of around 49.5 points, and the previous reading of the index was around 49.5 points in June.

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Gold price today reached 2,435 USD/ounce. Before that, there was a time when the precious metal reached 2,446 USD. In the previous July, world gold also increased by more than 4%.

The gold market recently went up after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that he could discuss reducing interest rates at the September meeting. Powell affirmed that the Fed is "increasingly confident". believes action is possible in the upcoming session", as long as inflation figures continue to cool.

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The market is expecting the Fed to lower interest rates very sharply in the upcoming meeting

Nonfarm payrolls report shows unemployment rate skyrocketing from 4.1% to 4.3%

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XAUUSD decreased during the trading session on Friday (August 2), because investors took profits after this precious metal had a sharp increase in price during the trading session. Analysts believe that gold prices may soon exceed 2,500 USD/oz because the risk of a US economic recession may cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates more strongly than expected.

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Gold prices have fluctuated rapidly in the past week, when they skyrocketed, they also quickly "collapsed" under pressure from investors to take profits. However, both analysts and experts believe that gold prices will continue to increase when supported by many factors

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From a technical perspective, gold prices still show an upward trend on long-term time frames, although there are corrections in the short-term frame. Gold prices may continue to maintain wave 5 corresponding to the Weekly chart, increasing above the 2500 round resistance level next week if it breaks through the old peak at 2483. If it fails to break through this resistance level, gold prices will move sideways within the range of 2385-2485.