GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 01 - July 05]

30 cze

XAUUSD today closed weekly at 2,326 USD/ounce. It had previously hit a high of $2,339 when the US PCE inflation data was released.
COMEX gold futures closed up 0.01% at $2,336/ounce, with a cumulative gain of 12.8% in the first half of the year.

Gold is currently quite neutral fundamentally, but looking at the overall picture, inflation will not disappear and geopolitical tensions will not subside, which will be important positive supports for gold prices.

Previously, the core US personal consumption expenditure index showed moderate rising inflationary pressures, in line with expectations. Over the past 12 months, the Fed's inflation index has increased 2.6%, the lowest annual increase in more than three years.
Although inflation has yet to reach the Fed's 2% target, it may be close enough to signal a rate cut in September.
CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that traders now see about a 64.1% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who is also a member of the 2024 FOMC, said the latest inflation figures were “good news that policy is working.”
It's also worth noting that data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that in the week to June 25, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts decreased by 4,823 lots.

Data outlook next week
Independence Day will give next week's economic data a break.
On Monday, markets will get the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, followed by preliminary Eurozone CPI data and JOLTS job hiring data on Tuesday.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak at the central bank meeting in Portugal.
Next Wednesday, the market will focus on the ADP jobs report, weekly unemployment benefits data and the ISM services purchasing managers index, as well as the June FOMC meeting minutes.
After the July 4 holiday, US traders will receive the June nonfarm payrolls report on Friday

Notable economic data
Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday: Eurozone CPI estimates, JOLTS vacancies, ECB President Christine Lagarde and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to speak at Bank of Portugal meeting
Wednesday: ADP employment data, weekly jobless claims, ISM services PMI; FOMC June meeting minutes;
Friday: US nonfarm payrolls report

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold recovered but the early recovery was beaten by the target resistance area presented to readers in the previous issue of 2,340 – 2,345 USD, the price area of ​​the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and technical level 2,345USD.

Gold's weekly close still within the price channel shows that the downtrend remains stable, while price activity returning below the EMA21 also makes this moving average the closest current resistance for gold. with the price of gold technically on the daily chart.

In the near term, if gold continues to be sold below 2,324 USD it will provide conditions for further declines with the target level then being around 2,305 – 2,300 USD.
In case the $2,300 raw price breaks below, a new bearish cycle could be opened with a short-term target of $2,286 and more than the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level.
As long as gold cannot move above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, in terms of overall technicality, the gold price technical chart is not inclined to an upward trend.

The technical downtrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following price levels.
Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,330 – 2,340 – 2,345USD

📌The trading plan for next week will be selling around 2360 and buying around 2268.

30 cze

Uwaga

Gold price closed the trading week at 2,326 USD/ounce, a slight increase of about 5 USD/ounce compared to the end of last week.

Precious metals on the international exchange have not been able to break out in the short term as the USD continues to maintain a high level. The USD index currently stands around 105.87 points, up 1.14% over the previous month.

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World gold prices started a new trading week this morning (July 1) in a slightly decreasing state. After rising strongly in the second quarter and the first half of the year, gold prices have leveled off recently and experts predict they will continue to struggle in the short term.

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Goldman Sachs predicts when and how much the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates

Two analysts at the famous American investment bank, Goldman Sachs, presented their expectations for the steps of the US Federal Reserve regarding the date and number of times it will cut interest rates during the bank’s meetings this year.

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🔴Fed says it’s not ready to cut rates until ‘greater confidence’ inflation is moving to 2% goal.

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The dollar declines after interest rate cut hopes rise

The US dollar fell in early European trade on Thursday as weak economic data raised expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while the pound rose as the UK headed to the polls.

At 13:34 Riyadh time, the dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six other currencies, was trading 0.15% lower at 104.907, continuing the sharp declines seen overnight.

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Uwaga

🔴The dollar falls to its lowest level in 3 weeks before the release of employment data

The US dollar fell sharply during major foreign exchange trading on Thursday, as market expectations rose regarding the Federal Reserve ending its monetary tightening policy.

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Goldman Sachs upgrades UK growth forecast after huge Labour election win

Goldman Sachs on Friday upgraded its growth forecast for the U.K. after the Labour Party’s victory in the country’s general election.

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📌The trading plan for next week will be to buy if the price returns to test around the 2335 barrier, and to sell if the price approaches the 2440 area.

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This week will be a busy week for financial markets due to the release of many important US economic information. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give regular testimony on monetary policy before the US Congress. Next, the US Department of Labor will release the June consumer price index (CPI) report on Thursday and the producer price index (PPI) on Friday.

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Uwaga

🟢Treasury yields rise as investors look to inflation data due in week ahead

➡️U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to key economic data due throughout the week, including fresh inflation insights.

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🟢The US dollar begins the week's trading with a slight decline... Why?

The US dollar index witnessed clear downward pressure during global market transactions on Monday, after losing about 1% during the past week, affected by weak US economic data, which reinforced speculation about the possibility that the US Federal Reserve will begin reducing interest rates sooner than expected, which is something that... It may negatively affect future US dollar trading.

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Uwaga

On the technical chart, XAU/USD has hit resistance at $2,390, a level that caused a reversal in April. The possibility of improving risk appetite in global financial markets is still possible, supported by financial reporting season. If XAU/USD breaks above the $2,390 mark, it could be an important signal, signaling a new attack on historic highs near 2,450.