XAU/USD Market Dynamics Unveiled Analysis for October 29-31
Zaktualizowano
Wyckoff Structure and Market Analysis
The chart illustrates the Wyckoff Distribution with phases A, B, C, and D, each representing distinct price movements and volume dynamics according to the Wyckoff methodology. Phase A highlights the initial Preliminary Supply (PSY) and the Automatic Rally (AR) levels, indicating the onset of selling pressure and potential exhaustion of upward momentum. In Phase B, characterized as the consolidation phase, the Buying Climax (BC) and Secondary Test (ST) establish the trading range boundaries, with the Upthrust (UT) acting as a false breakout. Phase C typically marks the Spring or Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD), representing the last effort to achieve higher prices before a reversal occurs. Finally, Phase D initiates the markdown, signaling the beginning of a downtrend.
Key price levels in this analysis include a major Resistance Line at approximately 2,758.525, which the price has struggled to surpass, and a Support Line around 2,716.905, historically an area of demand. Current range markers indicate a Strong Invalidation Point near 2,765, suggesting that a break above this level would negate the bearish outlook, and a Weak Low of a Range (PWL) at 2,740.640, marking the lower limit of potential re-accumulation or distribution.
In terms of wave analysis, the chart depicts a 5-wave structure in line with Elliott Wave Theory, indicating an impulsive move. Each wave is sequentially marked, displaying initial bullish momentum, with Wave 5 culminating at the peak of the distribution phase. Following the impulsive 5-wave move, a corrective a-b-c pattern suggests a potential downward correction. Smaller sub-waves within each major wave indicate minor price fluctuations, with the note “NO TRADES ABOVE” around 2,758 marking a crucial resistance level confirming a bearish bias.
Key signals, such as the Change of Character (CHoCH) marked during the transition from Phase A to Phase B, indicate initial weakness in the upward trend. The Market Structure Break (MSB) visible in Phase C signifies the conclusion of the upward structure and the potential onset of a downtrend.
The analysis also highlights supply and demand zones. The Supply Zone at 2,758.525 represents where selling pressure overtook buying interest, while the Demand Zone (AR Distribution) at 2,716.905 historically provided demand that could either support prices or be breached in a downtrend.
In terms of trade setup and triggers, there is a sell setup noted with “OPEN SELL ABOVE BUY BELOW” around 2,740, suggesting a sell signal if the price breaks below this level. A critical Weekly Close (W Close) is marked in red near 2,716, as a close below this level would confirm further downside.
Projected price movement is indicated by red lines and anticipated downward movement, with labels like i, ii, iii, iv, v denoting expected minor waves within the projected downtrend. Minor resistance during the downtrend is identified around 2,740, with support areas during the decline at 2,716 and potentially lower levels if further distribution occurs.
The analysis includes significant high and low points in the distribution process. The Preliminary Supply (PSY) marks the initial high before Phase A distribution, while Buying Climax (BC) and Upthrust (UT) indicate peak points in Phase B. Additionally, levels that acted as support, such as 2,716, may become resistance if the price breaks below them.
Regarding timeframe and events, various date markers, including October 29, 30, and beyond, provide an estimated timeline for each phase and price movement, alongside indicators for major economic events such as FOMC and NFP that could affect price dynamics.
In summary, this chart outlines a complex interaction between Wyckoff Phases and Elliott Wave Theory, indicating a Wyckoff Distribution pattern that suggests a bearish outlook. The completed Elliott Wave impulse indicates a corrective wave is currently in progress, with key Resistance around 2,758 and Support around 2,716 acting as critical decision points. A Sell Trigger at 2,740 is noted, with confirmation of a bearish outlook contingent upon a weekly close below 2,716.
Additionally, potential harmonic patterns have been identified, including a Bearish Butterfly Pattern and a Bearish Gartley Pattern, aligning with the anticipated bearish reversal. The Bearish Butterfly Pattern consists of an XA Leg from 2,685 to 2,758, an AB Leg retracement to around 2,734, a BC Leg upward extension potentially reaching the 1.272 to 1.618 Fibonacci extension of XA, and a CD Leg aligning with a reversal zone below 2,716. The Bearish Gartley Pattern suggests a retracement from the Tuesday high of the week, where the final price point aligns with support between 2,685 to 2,700. A key harmonic confluence occurs around the 2,758 reversal zone, where both harmonic patterns converge as a high-probability area for bearish entries, targeting down to 2,685.
Following the ICT Weekly Template, the high of the week is anticipated to form on Tuesday or Wednesday in a bearish outlook, establishing a peak before a decline. The projected Tuesday high around 2,758 serves as an optimal area for confirming the week’s high and a trigger for bearish trades. A stop-loss could be placed just above this high or slightly above the strong invalidation point at 2,765 to manage risk. The ideal scenario involves a push to this Tuesday high, confirming it as the week’s peak and triggering bearish positions.
Once Tuesday's high is established, a downward movement is expected on Wednesday and Thursday, aligning with the forecasted wave structure and distribution pattern. This price action should lead towards lower support zones around 2,716 and ultimately 2,685 if the downtrend continues.
In conclusion, the strategy revolves around using the Tuesday high as a sell signal, in alignment with the ICT weekly template and leveraging the Wyckoff Phase B Upthrust (UT) around 2,758 as a potential high for the week. The harmonic confluence of patterns such as the Bearish Butterfly or Gartley aligns with this level as a final reversal point. Trade management includes short positions at the Tuesday high (around 2,758–2,765) if bearish confirmation is observed, with a stop-loss above 2,765 and profit targets set at 2,716, 2,685, and potentially lower based on harmonic and Wyckoff markdown targets.
The chart illustrates the Wyckoff Distribution with phases A, B, C, and D, each representing distinct price movements and volume dynamics according to the Wyckoff methodology. Phase A highlights the initial Preliminary Supply (PSY) and the Automatic Rally (AR) levels, indicating the onset of selling pressure and potential exhaustion of upward momentum. In Phase B, characterized as the consolidation phase, the Buying Climax (BC) and Secondary Test (ST) establish the trading range boundaries, with the Upthrust (UT) acting as a false breakout. Phase C typically marks the Spring or Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD), representing the last effort to achieve higher prices before a reversal occurs. Finally, Phase D initiates the markdown, signaling the beginning of a downtrend.
Key price levels in this analysis include a major Resistance Line at approximately 2,758.525, which the price has struggled to surpass, and a Support Line around 2,716.905, historically an area of demand. Current range markers indicate a Strong Invalidation Point near 2,765, suggesting that a break above this level would negate the bearish outlook, and a Weak Low of a Range (PWL) at 2,740.640, marking the lower limit of potential re-accumulation or distribution.
In terms of wave analysis, the chart depicts a 5-wave structure in line with Elliott Wave Theory, indicating an impulsive move. Each wave is sequentially marked, displaying initial bullish momentum, with Wave 5 culminating at the peak of the distribution phase. Following the impulsive 5-wave move, a corrective a-b-c pattern suggests a potential downward correction. Smaller sub-waves within each major wave indicate minor price fluctuations, with the note “NO TRADES ABOVE” around 2,758 marking a crucial resistance level confirming a bearish bias.
Key signals, such as the Change of Character (CHoCH) marked during the transition from Phase A to Phase B, indicate initial weakness in the upward trend. The Market Structure Break (MSB) visible in Phase C signifies the conclusion of the upward structure and the potential onset of a downtrend.
The analysis also highlights supply and demand zones. The Supply Zone at 2,758.525 represents where selling pressure overtook buying interest, while the Demand Zone (AR Distribution) at 2,716.905 historically provided demand that could either support prices or be breached in a downtrend.
In terms of trade setup and triggers, there is a sell setup noted with “OPEN SELL ABOVE BUY BELOW” around 2,740, suggesting a sell signal if the price breaks below this level. A critical Weekly Close (W Close) is marked in red near 2,716, as a close below this level would confirm further downside.
Projected price movement is indicated by red lines and anticipated downward movement, with labels like i, ii, iii, iv, v denoting expected minor waves within the projected downtrend. Minor resistance during the downtrend is identified around 2,740, with support areas during the decline at 2,716 and potentially lower levels if further distribution occurs.
The analysis includes significant high and low points in the distribution process. The Preliminary Supply (PSY) marks the initial high before Phase A distribution, while Buying Climax (BC) and Upthrust (UT) indicate peak points in Phase B. Additionally, levels that acted as support, such as 2,716, may become resistance if the price breaks below them.
Regarding timeframe and events, various date markers, including October 29, 30, and beyond, provide an estimated timeline for each phase and price movement, alongside indicators for major economic events such as FOMC and NFP that could affect price dynamics.
In summary, this chart outlines a complex interaction between Wyckoff Phases and Elliott Wave Theory, indicating a Wyckoff Distribution pattern that suggests a bearish outlook. The completed Elliott Wave impulse indicates a corrective wave is currently in progress, with key Resistance around 2,758 and Support around 2,716 acting as critical decision points. A Sell Trigger at 2,740 is noted, with confirmation of a bearish outlook contingent upon a weekly close below 2,716.
Additionally, potential harmonic patterns have been identified, including a Bearish Butterfly Pattern and a Bearish Gartley Pattern, aligning with the anticipated bearish reversal. The Bearish Butterfly Pattern consists of an XA Leg from 2,685 to 2,758, an AB Leg retracement to around 2,734, a BC Leg upward extension potentially reaching the 1.272 to 1.618 Fibonacci extension of XA, and a CD Leg aligning with a reversal zone below 2,716. The Bearish Gartley Pattern suggests a retracement from the Tuesday high of the week, where the final price point aligns with support between 2,685 to 2,700. A key harmonic confluence occurs around the 2,758 reversal zone, where both harmonic patterns converge as a high-probability area for bearish entries, targeting down to 2,685.
Following the ICT Weekly Template, the high of the week is anticipated to form on Tuesday or Wednesday in a bearish outlook, establishing a peak before a decline. The projected Tuesday high around 2,758 serves as an optimal area for confirming the week’s high and a trigger for bearish trades. A stop-loss could be placed just above this high or slightly above the strong invalidation point at 2,765 to manage risk. The ideal scenario involves a push to this Tuesday high, confirming it as the week’s peak and triggering bearish positions.
Once Tuesday's high is established, a downward movement is expected on Wednesday and Thursday, aligning with the forecasted wave structure and distribution pattern. This price action should lead towards lower support zones around 2,716 and ultimately 2,685 if the downtrend continues.
In conclusion, the strategy revolves around using the Tuesday high as a sell signal, in alignment with the ICT weekly template and leveraging the Wyckoff Phase B Upthrust (UT) around 2,758 as a potential high for the week. The harmonic confluence of patterns such as the Bearish Butterfly or Gartley aligns with this level as a final reversal point. Trade management includes short positions at the Tuesday high (around 2,758–2,765) if bearish confirmation is observed, with a stop-loss above 2,765 and profit targets set at 2,716, 2,685, and potentially lower based on harmonic and Wyckoff markdown targets.
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