Warby Parker Inc.Short
8/13/24 - $wrby - Still no thanks at $13. maybe 10.
8/13/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: WRBY
Still no thanks at $13. maybe 10.
- good brand
- but moat is more brand related than product related (opine if you think differently)
- stock in a tough discretionary environment. if u don't need a new pair... you can wait. this isn't toilet paper.
- really dislike how much stock comp in this co's FCF calculation it's nearly 80-100 mm depending on the year. for a stock that's up and to the right, that's fine, but this one isn't. so therefore this isn't real "free cash flow", it's an expense to shareholders (dare i say bagholders)
- EVEN IF the above weren't an issue. what would i pay for something maybe coming from zero EPS to positive and growing from 2024 onward at 25-30%? at most in today's tape... 35x. that's what i can buy a cash machine growing at this level with better margins called CELH. that's my denominator in all consumer stock considerations (divide WRBY/
CELH) just like in all tech decision i divide by 
NVDA and BTCUSDT...
-... so at 35x on '25 EPS (let's assume it's right at 31c) that's round up 11/shr.
- so again. tough environment. stock weak in strong tape. financials don't entice me with respect to stock comp. i need a discount. i'm happy to let it go here if it just lingers in the low teens and eventually goes higher. i can always buy it going higher w more conviction. but i lack that conviction rn.
- will re assess closer to $10.
V
WRBYStill no thanks at $13. maybe 10.
- good brand
- but moat is more brand related than product related (opine if you think differently)
- stock in a tough discretionary environment. if u don't need a new pair... you can wait. this isn't toilet paper.
- really dislike how much stock comp in this co's FCF calculation it's nearly 80-100 mm depending on the year. for a stock that's up and to the right, that's fine, but this one isn't. so therefore this isn't real "free cash flow", it's an expense to shareholders (dare i say bagholders)
- EVEN IF the above weren't an issue. what would i pay for something maybe coming from zero EPS to positive and growing from 2024 onward at 25-30%? at most in today's tape... 35x. that's what i can buy a cash machine growing at this level with better margins called CELH. that's my denominator in all consumer stock considerations (divide WRBY/
CELH) just like in all tech decision i divide by NVDA and BTCUSDT...-... so at 35x on '25 EPS (let's assume it's right at 31c) that's round up 11/shr.
- so again. tough environment. stock weak in strong tape. financials don't entice me with respect to stock comp. i need a discount. i'm happy to let it go here if it just lingers in the low teens and eventually goes higher. i can always buy it going higher w more conviction. but i lack that conviction rn.
- will re assess closer to $10.
V
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