Wheat, why this last raising?

14 paź 2022

My backtests, September and October are not good months for long swing trading, but Im finding some reason from last WASDE reports

*****************September release on wheat

– U.S. wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month
– Global wheat outlook raises supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks this month, as production increases for Russia and Ukraine, more than offset a decline in beginning stocks. Area harvested, yield, and production for Russia will all reach record highs. The Ukraine production forecast is increased as higher yields in the Forest and Forest-Steppe zones

******************October release on wheat

***US***
- The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, domestic use, exports, and stocks.
Supplies are reduced on lower 2022/23 production.
Reductions in both harvested area and yield.
Production only minimally higher than last year
Partially offsetting the production decline are higher projected imports. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since 1971/72
Projected ending stocks are lowered

***WORLD***
The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 wheat is for reduced supplies, consumption, trade, and stocks.
reduced production for the United States and Argentina more than offsetting higher EU production although world production remains at a record
Global consumption is reduced on lower food, seed, and industrial use more than offsetting higher feed and residual use.
World trade is lowered on reduced exports by the United States and Argentina more than offsetting higher EU exports.
Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered mostly on a reduction for the United States.