Quiet before the storm: $VIX eerily at low levels.

VIX since the unusual April spike to 60 has been making new lows. It is surprisingly coincidental that the S&P 500 bottomed at 4900 @ which is 0.618 Fib retracement level if we chart the Fib level form the August 2024 spike to the lows of the Nov 2024. Since Feb 2025 highs have come down to 17. With VIX at 17 and SPX almost 6000 which is 2.5% away from Feb 2025 ATH. And the disturbing part is that the VIX is very quietly going lower.

So how does the future look like. VIX can go down to the lows of 16 before it breaks down below the upward sloping. This can result in violent reversal. The reversal can result in that VIX spikes to levels of 24 and next level 32. VIX above 32 is always a very good opportunity to buy $SPX. There you have my suggestion for the pair trade.

Verdict : VIX can spike to 24 or 32 if the reversal trade takes hold. Go long SPX with VIX @ 32.